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Old 2010-06-05, 23:54   Link #10841
Judoh
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I knew Ange was aware of the bottles, but I didn't remember what she said about them. I wasn't really talking about author theory though.

For 1 and 2 at least I'm for them being written beforehand. For them being written afterward that'd mean a survivor had to have written them. And if there is no survivor I'd have to ask why the author even thinks there were murders in the first place if everyone believed it was an accident at the time. It might mean that someone purposely turned the accident into a murder case to start a debate. Or to frame Eva maybe.
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Old 2010-06-06, 00:05   Link #10842
Renall
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Turn the chessboard around. Assume you are a person with foreknowledge of what will happen on Rokkenjima. Why do you want to confuse the issue - a simple "accident" - with fantastic stories of witches and murders, and a request that the truth be found? What is your motive for, say, sending out the bottles instead of preventing the disaster or at least escaping it yourself?
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Old 2010-06-06, 00:13   Link #10843
chronotrig
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Hmm, do we actually have any evidence that the person who wrote the message bottles is the one who actually put them in bottles and sent them?

For example, let's say that Beatrice isn't the culprit. We do know that she loves mystery stories, and since she obviously knew about the epitaph and had a liking for the occult (Maria's diary almost proves this), it's not impossible for her to write up the Umineko story just for herself. Of course, she would be writing it as a mystery novel, so there's a chance that it would be solvable, and the culprit would be Beatrice...which might also mean that the culprit would be the real 'her'.

Since she isn't the real culprit, that culprit must someone else (maybe multiple people). If this other person was planning to kill everyone on the island and saw Beatrice's stories, those stories would become useful to them. Not only would they provide a tale of those two days that would be wildly inaccurate, but it would even be possible to solve them with the wrong culprit. Plus, the handwriting might be matched or some other evidence found to link the letters to the person who wrote them.
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Old 2010-06-06, 00:17   Link #10844
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Hmm, do we actually have any evidence that the person who wrote the message bottles is the one who actually put them in bottles and sent them?
Obviously we already know the answer to this. Of course not.
Quote:
For example, let's say that Beatrice isn't the culprit. We do know that she loves mystery stories, and since she obviously knew about the epitaph and had a liking for the occult (Maria's diary almost proves this), it's not impossible for her to write up the Umineko story just for herself. Of course, she would be writing it as a mystery novel, so there's a chance that it would be solvable, and the culprit would be Beatrice...which might also mean that the culprit would be the real 'her'.
Following you so far.
Quote:
Since she isn't the real culprit, that culprit must someone else (maybe multiple people). If this other person was planning to kill everyone on the island and saw Beatrice's stories, those stories would become useful to them. Not only would they provide a tale of those two days that would be wildly inaccurate, but it would even be possible to solve them with the wrong culprit.
Not a bad thought. But wouldn't it sort of make it hard to ever solve the "real" murder mystery? Or are we suggesting that, perhaps, that doesn't actually matter?

Bern may show us what "really" happened in ep7. But the truth of the incident may not be particularly important. That might upset a lot of people, but in truth, what happened on "Rokkenjima-Prime" is not really relevant to Author Theory. Of course that assumes that's where Umineko is going. I'm sure there's a curveball still in store.
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Old 2010-06-06, 00:34   Link #10845
Judoh
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I've been thinking that the Author theory has to assume that at least one of the stories is the real Rokkenjima.

If you suppose none of them are the real one though Rokkenjima prime is something entirely different and isn't restricted to what we have. So the enemy of the author theory is to suppose that we haven't seen everything yet. Supposing that there is a Rokkenjima that we've never seen or that hasn't appeared yet would probably be the antithesis of the author theory. It's like the later queen theory in a way, but instead of saying we have the "wrong culprit" we're saying we haven't read the "real story" yet.
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Old 2010-06-06, 00:36   Link #10846
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Not a bad thought. But wouldn't it sort of make it hard to ever solve the "real" murder mystery? Or are we suggesting that, perhaps, that doesn't actually matter?
Well, we don't know how closely the message bottles follow what we've been shown in the games. As I've mentioned before, it's extremely unlikely that either message bottle ever mentions the meta-world, for example. The Prof wouldn't have talked about "the two stories were different for some reason" if they had shown meta-Battler watching both sets of murders. If you look at that part of EP4, it just isn't worded in a way for that to make sense.

I think there is a difference between the two, since there has to be unless you follow the Author Theory (they can still be different even with the Author theory). Assuming that the message bottles were written before the murders, I seriously doubt any number of people could manage to carry out one of these stories perfectly from start to finish. In other words, there's basically zero chance that the message bottles perfectly follow the events on the island (with this assumption). EP3 proves that multiple stories were written, so there might have been dozens of "message bottle stories" that covered all the major possibilities, but if what we're shown in the games is the truth, it must be different from the bottle stories.

...The point of all that being that, even if the message bottles don't provide enough information to find the true culprit, the stories we read might.


One other thing I'd like to point out. I think there's a good chance that EP3 and after never appeared in any message bottle because "Beatrice" failed in all of them. In EP3 and EP5, the gold was discovered, and Beatrice was punted into a side role. In EP6, the format of the story was drastically different, and Beatrice wasn't even shown to be the culprit. In EP4, Battler spent most of his time in a single room and was totally unconvinced about magic, at least until the Tea Party. Presumably, this is because some people found out Kinzo's secret and the culprit was forced to lock them away. It not only fails to make it seem plausible that the murders were magic, but most of its "closed rooms" (if you can call them that) are also incredibly easy. I can't see Beatrice choosing to write that particular story unless she was feeling very depressed ^^;

Edit: My point being that the "author" of the message bottles might not be the "Author" of the Author Theory.
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Old 2010-06-06, 00:44   Link #10847
Raiza Sunozaki
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Random musings associated with the bottles:
Whoever sent out the bottles wanted the public to know about the murders. How they happened. Which at the same time contradicts how all the bottles indicate magic and witches were the key factor in the murders. We also know the pages were signed by a Beatrice signing the entries as Ushiromiya Maria, though she was not Maria, unless Maria's Beatrice was entirely a fictionalization in Maria's head, and that Maria has amazing writing skills.
At least one of the bottles is written Maria's Beatrice. We know this because the Beatrice in Maria's grimoire and the Ushiromiya Maria who signs one of the bottles share the same handwriting. Since it's likely Maria's Beatrice is the Dress-Beato we see in the series, combined with the theory that Dress-Beato is someone who is roped into assisting in the murders, the story was likely written beforehand, since I doubt they'd have the time to write a full-fledged story like that over the course of forty-eight hours, considering they also have to assist in murdering people.
So this means that the plans for the murders were ironed out beforehand, that the culprit already knew how (and possibly who) they wanted to murder.
The problem with this is simple. Chaos. What are the chances of the culprit's schemes working perfectly?
Going back to what I first mentioned, the whole contradiction between the fantasy in the bottles and the real truth. If bottle-writer wants the public to know about the murders, why hide it in the Illusion of the Witch? Why blame it all on magic? It's not like the sender survives to be judged as an assistant to murder. There's no loss in openly saying "Culprit X orchestrated the entire murder, which I was forced to assist in." More so, why sign them as Maria? It should be obvious from a simple analysis that the writings in the bottles are above the ability of a nine-year-old, unless the writer went out of their way to make it seem like it was Maria writing them.
There's a lot of discrepancies in the bottles, most of which haven't been sufficiently covered in a theory yet.
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Old 2010-06-06, 00:45   Link #10848
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Well, someone else has claimed to have written ep3-6, so we at least do have that out. And this person - we can debate her existence and whether she actually did write them all - emphatically denies being the message bottle writer. Fair enough. Let's take her word for it, as ep1-2 are indeed different from ep3-6.

Is it possible that what the "message bottle" author wanted and what the "internet writer" author wanted were completely different things? If a work is a reflection of the author, then perhaps only ep1-2 really detail the desires of "Beatrice" herself. Ep3-6, then, becomes a meditation on the stories "Beatrice" wrote by someone else entirely with different objectives entirely.

This is telling if you look to the meta world. We've seen many different players with many different styles of play, both for the human side and for the GM side. What they actually want is greatly different:
  • Beatrice is trying to get Battler to understand something.
  • Lambda is trying to twist the story for her amusement (or is she?).
  • Battler is trying to protect Beatrice's heart, the integrity of his family, and (perhaps) to resurrect Beatrice through a convoluted miracle.
  • Bern desires to see the "truth" at any cost, ignoring themes and motifs, seeking raw data. Though we can't be totally sure how she intends to go about things until ep7.
None of these characters want the same thing, yet they all tell the same story (roughly) in the same format (sort of). Each story is extremely different, however. What could that mean?
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Old 2010-06-06, 00:53   Link #10849
Raiza Sunozaki
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Well, someone else has claimed to have written ep3-6, so we at least do have that out. And this person - we can debate her existence and whether she actually did write them all - emphatically denies being the message bottle writer. Fair enough. Let's take her word for it, as ep1-2 are indeed different from ep3-6.
Once again, I doubt anyone even wrote the story for Episode 3. I think it's just a retelling the events during the conference in Ange's "real" world. Everything points to Ange coming from a world in the future of Episode 3, and she says that the bottle story she read doesn't match what she heard happened on the island (though since Eva refused to tell her, this isn't much).

Random association. The scene of Eva's death, where she laughs at Ange while refusing to tell her anything about the island, is there any chance this might have been a delusion in Ange's mind? We already know Ange has a tendency to see things differently from reality. She hates Eva, so is it possible that she just decided Eva was mocking her as she was dying? Maybe Eva was trying to spare her the grief she had to go through, experiencing all the deaths of those near to her, and finally breaking from the strain of her paranoia.
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Old 2010-06-06, 00:59   Link #10850
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I'm pretty sure it was confirmed that the author of the letters and the author of Ange's Maria-diary are the same person right? By the Witch Hunter? That fact has always confused me, what could it mean? I haven't dusted off my old EP4 knowledge much, but aren't there also different letters? Some letters tell one story, while another set of letters tell a different story entirely.

And remember, Maria isn't just any old nine-year-old. She's an expert in Old Testament scripture, magic and occult circles, and can read at an extremely high level (Beatrice's writing style in the letters can be above the level of even most Japanese adults. It's archaic and old.) :3
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:00   Link #10851
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The problem with that notion is that Touya claims to have written ep3 as well. Unless she was on Rokkenjima, there is no way she could have known exactly how it played out. The only proof that would link ep3's world to Ange's 1998 is that Eva was the survivor. But so what? I could selectively rewrite any Umineko episode to allow Eva to survive. That doesn't prove the 1998 Ange comes from followed from any of those.
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:00   Link #10852
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Well, someone else has claimed to have written ep3-6, so we at least do have that out. And this person - we can debate her existence and whether she actually did write them all - emphatically denies being the message bottle writer. Fair enough. Let's take her word for it, as ep1-2 are indeed different from ep3-6.

Is it possible that what the "message bottle" author wanted and what the "internet writer" author wanted were completely different things? If a work is a reflection of the author, then perhaps only ep1-2 really detail the desires of "Beatrice" herself. Ep3-6, then, becomes a meditation on the stories "Beatrice" wrote by someone else entirely with different objectives entirely.
I find it very hard to accept that EP3-6 ever popped up on the internet. If that's true, it means that the Ange scenes of EP4 are almost certainly false. The "Ange" who talks to Featherinne is supposedly the Ange from EP4, but are we supposed to believe that Ange read a story which exactly predicted her trip to the island right before she headed to the island? Not only would the author need to predict the future, but you'd also need Ange act out a role she had read in a story, act surprised every time she discovered something, and have everything turn out exactly as the story said even with her foreknowledge. In other words, the whole "Ange read EP3-5 on her way to Rokkenjima" thing is pretty close to impossible unless the only true scene in the entire set of games is the one in which Ange meets Hachijo... and part of that scene shifts into the meta world, so the only real scene in the entire game is the very last part, when Ange says "is that Featherinne person supposed to be you?".

In other words, we have no reliable evidence that anyone ever wrote EP3-6 anywhere, and in fact we have much more evidence to the contrary.
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:01   Link #10853
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IMO The episode 1-2 author liked Battler more than the episode 3-6 author. You can see a vast difference in how they felt about him. In episodes 1 and 2 it was at least a mystery if Battler survived or not. In episode 3 and 4 the author seems to intentionally want to kill him off and does at the end twice. Episode 5 is different since we don't get to see the end, and I can't comment on episode 6.

More than that. The early murderers and the the murderers who can kill people later without problems with the red are different with these two authors.

For example compare Natsuhi and Nanjo's murders in episodes 1 and 3. Everyone should be dead or under Battler's watch by this time, but in both cases somebody who was wounded has to kill these people in the hall with a gun pointed at them.

Kanon and Shannon are most likely in episode 1 for reasons already explained. And Kyrie and Hideyoshi seem most likely at this point in episode 3 too.

There are 3 perspectives I can see for writing the first two bottles at least.
  • There is nothing "I" can do about it: Even if the writer has foreknowledge and tells them nothing will happen or they can't because it will just happens sooner. The author writes because nothing could be done to prevent it so at least the people who survived or people who read the story should be able to find out themselves with some investigation.
  • There is nothing "they" can do about it: The writer knows what's going to happen, but thinks they deserve what's coming to them. The author writes as a challenge because he doesn't think you can figure it out. In fact he thinks he can get away with what he did even with taking the risk of writing about it.
  • There is nothing "we" can do about it: Multiple writers write about what they think happened, but aren't sure happened. What each writer writes is vastly different from everyone else. In fact it may be edited to be more entertaining. I guess you could think of it like a diary or a suicide note.
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:09   Link #10854
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Well, we don't know how closely the message bottles follow what we've been shown in the games. As I've mentioned before, it's extremely unlikely that either message bottle ever mentions the meta-world, for example. The Prof wouldn't have talked about "the two stories were different for some reason" if they had shown meta-Battler watching both sets of murders. If you look at that part of EP4, it just isn't worded in a way for that to make sense.
Even beyond that, the way he talked about it made it sound as if the message bottles didn't describe a murder mystery at all, but a purely occult incident. If the contents of the bottles really were the same as the gameboard events in EP1 and EP2, there would be tons of non-occult ways to attack them, but it doesn't seem like they're being approached in that manner.

If these bottles were written by Beatrice before the incident, and Beatrice wasn't planning to commit any actual murders, then it wouldn't even be possible for her to include those details in her stories. So it might be more reasonable to think that the message bottles contain the pure forms of the fake death plot scripts, which would be carried out in the absence of the real culprit. We do see them, but they're overlaid on Battler's mystery perspective, and Meta-Beatrice interleaves them or makes modifications as the real murderer screws her stories up.
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:11   Link #10855
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I find it very hard to accept that EP3-6 ever popped up on the internet. If that's true, it means that the Ange scenes of EP4 are almost certainly false. The "Ange" who talks to Featherinne is supposedly the Ange from EP4, but are we supposed to believe that Ange read a story which exactly predicted her trip to the island right before she headed to the island? Not only would the author need to predict the future, but you'd also need Ange act out a role she had read in a story, act surprised every time she discovered something, and have everything turn out exactly as the story said even with her foreknowledge. In other words, the whole "Ange read EP3-5 on her way to Rokkenjima" thing is pretty close to impossible unless the only true scene in the entire set of games is the one in which Ange meets Hachijo... and part of that scene shifts into the meta world, so the only real scene in the entire game is the very last part, when Ange says "is that Featherinne person supposed to be you?".

In other words, we have no reliable evidence that anyone ever wrote EP3-6 anywhere, and in fact we have much more evidence to the contrary.
At the same time, are we going to believe that these things exist in a vacuum, yet the message bottle stories don't? I find that very improbable.

I do agree the Featherinne scene is, if not merely chronologically, completely impossible, but remember: We don't know what the difference is between the stories we see and the stories Ange would've read. The "episodes" may only feature the 1986 board stories. It seems unlikely the meta-world existed in the message bottle stories (and ep2 has a meta-world), and if that's possible, why not Ange's 1998 as well? We don't know what's written (well, it's all written, but written-within-the-writing) and what's not.

I think a more intriguing prospect is that there were multiple authors for ep3-6. Touya/Featherinne is a composite of all those who read the message bottle stories and sought to understand something. What they wanted to understand isn't necessarily always the same for each person, and people have wildly different takes on the canon and characters; some have no problem inserting people like Eva-Beatrice or Erika, others shy away from it. The meta-world could offer us hints as to who these authors are. And perhaps these are compilations of the stories which touch "the truth" that Umineko in general is trying to explain. Even a "bad" story, like ep5, is said to contain a "piece of Beatrice" in it. That is why Virgilia and Ronove didn't tell Battler the entire episode was a complete waste of time.
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:18   Link #10856
LyricalAura
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And remember, Maria isn't just any old nine-year-old. She's an expert in Old Testament scripture, magic and occult circles, and can read at an extremely high level (Beatrice's writing style in the letters can be above the level of even most Japanese adults. It's archaic and old.) :3
Okay, here's an idea. We know that Maria's handwriting doesn't match Beatrice's. But as you said, she's knowledgeable about the occult, and we also know she's very creative and that her characters seem to show up in the message bottle stories. What if Maria herself came up with the stories, or she co-authored them with Beatrice, and then Beatrice wrote them up for her?
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:21   Link #10857
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Perhaps Maria and "Beatrice" made a game of the occult? And "Beatrice," out of a love for Maria, decided to write some wacky occult mysteries? Her pursuit of the "perfect mystery" could have been for Maria's benefit. The emphasis on love might have been a trick she pulled; Maria is smart, but some things can only really be understood by living life. So "Beatrice's" mystery is crafted in a way that someone like, say, Battler could solve it, but Maria will be kept guessing for years.

These harmless stories could have been co-opted by the real culprit to sow confusion. Of course, that insinuates a close relationship between "Beatrice" and the culprit...

I'm not trying to suggest a George theory, but I'm just sayin'.
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:25   Link #10858
Judoh
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Hey George could have survived in episode 1 and 2. He survived until the end in Legend and all we know is that he had a stomach wound in Turn. He's never really proclaimed dead at the time.
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:25   Link #10859
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
Even beyond that, the way he talked about it made it sound as if the message bottles didn't describe a murder mystery at all, but a purely occult incident. If the contents of the bottles really were the same as the gameboard events in EP1 and EP2, there would be tons of non-occult ways to attack them, but it doesn't seem like they're being approached in that manner.
Well, you have to take his position into account. This is an occult-loving guy we're talking about here, and he'd clearly enjoy a magic story instead of a standard murder. He already has the Rokkenjima library, which ties this to true historical finds, and the sensational murder case, which has catapulted his somewhat obscure hobby into the mainstream. Instead of trying to prove the magic wrong, his goal would be to link the magic and symbols mentioned to other bits of lore and legend. In in-universe terms, we'd say he has almost zero toxin. He wants the legend to be true, whether he actually believes in it or not.

@Renall:
Quote:
At the same time, are we going to believe that these things exist in a vacuum, yet the message bottle stories don't? I find that very improbable.
I agree that Ryuukishi wouldn't have shown that part without a reason. However, he left a clear loophole for getting around that, and even had Ange say it. Either Featherinne is a fake, or Hachijo is. We've talked about this before, so I won't go into detail, but if the reason we're shown the "internet stories" is because that's part of Featherinne's personal theory, then it's fair for Ryuukishi to show them in the game.

That being said, I think it's extremely likely that everything about Forgers and the like is true. It'd be almost impossible for that not to happen, Internet being what it is. And it's very possible, even likely, that Ange tried to contact one of them and failed. I just don't think that EP3-6 or anything remotely like them ever appeared as one of these internet stories, though some people might have figured out the truth and gotten close.
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:31   Link #10860
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Well, you have to take his position into account. This is an occult-loving guy we're talking about here, and he'd clearly enjoy a magic story instead of a standard murder. He already has the Rokkenjima library, which ties this to true historical finds, and the sensational murder case, which has catapulted his somewhat obscure hobby into the mainstream. Instead of trying to prove the magic wrong, his goal would be to link the magic and symbols mentioned to other bits of lore and legend. In in-universe terms, we'd say he has almost zero toxin. He wants the legend to be true, whether he actually believes in it or not.
Which makes him quite unreliable. I get the sense a lot of the Witch Hunters in 1998 miss the point entirely. I sort of have this image of people doing Umineko cosplay like folks do in the real world, except it's based on a real event. That's kind of morbid.
Quote:
I agree that Ryuukishi wouldn't have shown that part without a reason. However, he left a clear loophole for getting around that, and even had Ange say it. Either Featherinne is a fake, or Hachijo is. We've talked about this before, so I won't go into detail, but if the reason we're shown the "internet stories" is because that's part of Featherinne's personal theory, then it's fair for Ryuukishi to show them in the game.

That being said, I think it's extremely likely that everything about Forgers and the like is true. It'd be almost impossible for that not to happen, Internet being what it is. And it's very possible, even likely, that Ange tried to contact one of them and failed. I just don't think that EP3-6 or anything remotely like them ever appeared as one of these internet stories, though some people might have figured out the truth.
If they did figure out the truth, how? Is it possible to figure out the truth exclusively from 1-2? If so, why is the game declared solvable at ep4? Did the authors of ep3 and ep4 accidentally stumble upon some critical detail of the truth - details I don't see how they could know - that allowed other authors to find it as well, or are 3-4 false stories (that is, they never were really "written" in-universe) that provide the necessary information to compare to 1-2 (which were) so that we, the readers of Umineko, can find it?
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Hey George could have survived in episode 1 and 2. He survived until the end in Legend and all we know is that he had a stomach wound in Turn. He's never really proclaimed dead at the time.
So George, somehow still alive, lets his mother and his cousin go through the agony of his loss for twelve+ years? What a dick.

Although, unlike Battler surviving, I can kind of see George doing this. Not so much Battler or Jessica.
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Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

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