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Old 2010-06-06, 01:32   Link #10861
TTR
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I really think we should have an IRC room for all of this. It would be more fun and interactive between people
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:37   Link #10862
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
If they did figure out the truth, how? Is it possible to figure out the truth exclusively from 1-2? If so, why is the game declared solvable at ep4? Did the authors of ep3 and ep4 accidentally stumble upon some critical detail of the truth - details I don't see how they could know - that allowed other authors to find it as well, or are 3-4 false stories (that is, they never were really "written" in-universe) that provide the necessary information to compare to 1-2 (which were) so that we, the readers of Umineko, can find it?
Well, that's why I think EP3-6 never appear in the real world. I don't think you can find the entire truth just from EP1-2. However, there is something you can guess from just those: Shkanontrice. Since there's no EP3, real world people can never speculate about a second culprit, so it's nearly impossible for them to solve all of the puzzles (because Shkanontrice alone can't solve everything in the later Episodes), but they can at least make guesses about Shkanontrice. This holds true whether Shkanontrice actually turns out to be true or not. It's still a "truth" that Hachijo can claim to have "discovered".
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Old 2010-06-06, 01:38   Link #10863
Judoh
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What about the police investigation and the media? Wouldn't the authors have more information to research because of that? All we have are the stories, but after the fact there is a lot more information the authors and witch hunt can speculate about.

I forget, but didn't witch hunt investigate the island until there was practically nothing left?

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So George, somehow still alive, lets his mother and his cousin go through the agony of his loss for twelve+ years? What a dick.

Although, unlike Battler surviving, I can kind of see George doing this. Not so much Battler or Jessica.
Although even in my wildest dreams I can't imagine George as Juuza Amakusa. Even if he survived. Amakusa was still employed by Eva. So unless he had some major plastic surgery that'd be really risky.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-06-06 at 01:52.
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Old 2010-06-06, 02:28   Link #10864
PsychoShion
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I agree with lyrical aura.....either maria wrote the bottles when she was in witch mode or "beatrice" wrote them out for her or for her.....

I definately think that the whole point of this is that beatrice is a victim or someone trying to show someone a truth about something that was a tradgedy.

if the truth gets discovered beatrice will finally be abl e to rest in peace.

The culprit seeing these letters or epitaphs used them as an excuse to get people to muder each iother till the gold was found , not knowing the will kinzo left that had the bomb set up....

of course this is just speculation but i really hope it has something to do with maria and that beatrice;s truth has been twisted and distorted by the culprit for their greed.

but one thing i still don not understand is the whole purpose of the epitaph in the respect to it saying that sacrifcining will ressurect beatrice.....

i think beatrice is just a symbol for the =truth that the older servants set up .

I think the whole thing is to get some one to sole the truth of the mystery, the epitaph for the headship, and that this was all set up to expose the culprit.... i think that the was all a trap to get them exposed.

just some random thoughts at 3am.....LOL
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Old 2010-06-06, 05:34   Link #10865
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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Oh, the distinction for the "hidden passage" and the Golden Land solution that I personally make is that it technically isn't hidden. I mean, it's not something you would notice at first glance, but if you solve the riddle, then you'll magically see it. A "hidden passage" that is Knox heresy is one that you wouldn't find ever, even if you exhaust all of the clues that you have :/
I like your interpretation, but the reason I said this was because I wanted someone who liked When They Cry 3 enough to read it again and apply these Knox rules to each scene, I do have annotations, but I can't supply them right now. Hell, Natsuhi liking Shannon would change several scenes as well.

My belief is that taking a mystery stance won't work for three out of four episodes. The biggest problem I see here is that these rules would mean Battler is not the detective.

If anyone cares enough, PM me and I'll work on it.
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Old 2010-06-06, 06:49   Link #10866
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Turn the chessboard around. Assume you are a person with foreknowledge of what will happen on Rokkenjima. Why do you want to confuse the issue - a simple "accident" - with fantastic stories of witches and murders, and a request that the truth be found? What is your motive for, say, sending out the bottles instead of preventing the disaster or at least escaping it yourself?
Remember the Episode 2 tea party? Beatrice says that if she remade Rosa's past so that Rosa never had any siblings, Rosa wouldn't be remember ever having had siblings, and wouldn't be able to appreciate it. Maybe just preventing the Rokkenjima disaster would have no meaning.
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Old 2010-06-06, 08:35   Link #10867
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I've been thinking that the Author theory has to assume that at least one of the stories is the real Rokkenjima.
It doesn't need to be so and it's actually very hard to imagine how that can be true.

If there is a "real universe" then the only sources that can be considered reliable about this universe are:

1) The brief description of the rokkenjima aftermath of EP1

and

2) the 1998 perspective from EP3 (tea party), EP4 and EP6


However none of the games is really compatible with this universe except EP3. And EP3 is hardly the real account of what really happened.

I believe it's a lot more probable that none of the games actually describe reality. You also need to take in account that, if the author theory is true, then Hachijo is clearly telling us how the "author" is supposed work, and what Hachijo says suggests that the author do not need to write a "real" story.
There are probably some "rules" that need to be respected, a few elements that must be taken in consideration to write a "game" in the exact way Beatrice would, but that certainly doesn't entail telling the real events.

So the purpose of the games is not to make us understand what really happened in Rokkenjima, but what those "rules" and "elements" are.

Hachijo claims to have understood those, and we can say that she proved it by creating stories that make everyone wonder if Hachijo isn't in fact Beatrice herself. Ange herself claims that Hachijo's stories have the same "style" as the messages in the bottles, although she can't clearly understand why.



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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Hmm, do we actually have any evidence that the person who wrote the message bottles is the one who actually put them in bottles and sent them?
That's why the messages in the bottles aren't exactly the hardest thing to explain, imo.

Those can be explained in several ways. They might have nothing to do with what actually happened on Rokkenjima. They were just several scripts Beatrice wrote before deciding which one she would choose to perform her "fake serial murder mystery".
The fact that they were put inside of bottles could have just been part of a game, a prank (Beatrice do loves pranks), or maybe it's the "real culprit" who did that for whatever purpose without Beatrice being aware.

What is really hard to explain are the letters with the bank accounts. It's hard to imagine how they aren't meant to be something serious when you have 2 billion yen involved (or even more) and the "receiver" of each one of those is a person that actually died (or rather "went missing") in the true Rokkenjima incident.

Those letters are the biggest proof about Beatrice being aware of the "explosion" and it's the hardest to debunk.


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]I find it very hard to accept that EP3-6 ever popped up on the internet. If that's true, it means that the Ange scenes of EP4 are almost certainly false. The "Ange" who talks to Featherinne is supposedly the Ange from EP4, but are we supposed to believe that Ange read a story which exactly predicted her trip to the island right before she headed to the island? Not only would the author need to predict the future, but you'd also need Ange act out a role she had read in a story, act surprised every time she discovered something, and have everything turn out exactly as the story said even with her foreknowledge. In other words, the whole "Ange read EP3-5 on her way to Rokkenjima" thing is pretty close to impossible unless the only true scene in the entire set of games is the one in which Ange meets Hachijo... and part of that scene shifts into the meta world, so the only real scene in the entire game is the very last part, when Ange says "is that Featherinne person supposed to be you?".
What really bothered me about the discussions between Ange and Hachijo in EP6 is the fact that Ange was included as a character in Hachijo's second story.

Now, personally, I don't see any reason to think that the 1998 in EP4 is more reliable than the 1998 in EP6. By which logic can we assume that the first is the right one and the second is false?
We only know that the two aren't exactly compatible, but claiming that the EP6 one is the false one just because so far we've been used to think that EP4 1998 was absolutely reliable doesn't seem reasonable to me.

Of course the idea that some extravagant writer could predict the decisions of a real world person in a very dubious internet novel is certainly preposterous.
But I think we should consider these facts:

1) Nothing says that the Ange of EP6 is exactly as the Ange of EP4, nor that she did the same things and had the same experiences.
2) From the EP6 1998 we only know that the story that should correspond to the fourth game included Ange, but we don't actually know what Hachijo wrote about her.

To further complicate things, there's the fact that the Meta-Ange of EP6 is clealry the Ange of EP4, and that might gives us the impression that the Ange of EP6 is thinking the same way, which might not be exactly true.


Now I'd like you to consider this fact. There was something that always bugged me in the Ange's character TIPS since EP3.

"Has a bad habit of always walking around with a massive amount of cash, throwing it out to whoever comes first."

Exactly when this behavior became a habit?!
I really can't see Eva covering Ange in money so she can throw them in such an irresponsible way. And if I look at the events described in EP3-4 Ange just became the new heir and didn't really had the time to make such a habit. It doesn't make sense.
Which is why I think I can make a plausible theory:

The Ange we see in EP3-4 is not the real Ange, but rather a dramatized version created by Hachijo.
Conversely the TIPS describe what everyone in the real 1998 know about the real Ange, the same way the TIPS about Erika in EP6 describe what is commonly known about her.
The Ange in the real 1998 is not really escaping, she's been the heir since a while and she had the time to become "famous" in various "irresponsible magazines" as the sole survivor of the infamous rokkenjima incident and as the youngest billionaire of Japan.
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Old 2010-06-06, 10:52   Link #10868
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
That's why the messages in the bottles aren't exactly the hardest thing to explain, imo.

Those can be explained in several ways. They might have nothing to do with what actually happened on Rokkenjima. They were just several scripts Beatrice wrote before deciding which one she would choose to perform her "fake serial murder mystery".
The fact that they were put inside of bottles could have just been part of a game, a prank (Beatrice do loves pranks), or maybe it's the "real culprit" who did that for whatever purpose without Beatrice being aware.
Well, with the Author Theory, nothing's really that hard to explain. Once you have that, the entire game is pretty easy, and most of it is trivial, at least with the way most people decide to apply that theory.

The bottles are hard to explain, not because there's no possible way for them to have happened, but because it's hard to find a logical and realistic way for them to have been created if EP1-4 represent possible truths. You've suggested a few ways that the bottles might have worked, but depending on which is true, it drastically changes the outline of the entire game. If Beatrice wrote them beforehand as practice for the magic murders, real or fake, then we must assume that she was either the person behind those or related to that person. If that's so, you must either find a reason for why she'd send them drifting at the end, or specifically why someone else would do so. For something this big, there must be a clear reason, and that's what's hard to find.

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Now, personally, I don't see any reason to think that the 1998 in EP4 is more reliable than the 1998 in EP6. By which logic can we assume that the first is the right one and the second is false?
We only know that the two aren't exactly compatible, but claiming that the EP6 one is the false one just because so far we've been used to think that EP4 1998 was absolutely reliable doesn't seem reasonable to me.
Well, I'm not exactly saying that the EP4 one is "right". I personally think that one's exactly what we're told it is: a distant kakera. It's a future that doesn't result from any of the games, but which is close enough to the normal worlds that you can find many important hints within it.

As for why EP6's future is more likely to be false than EP4, that's pretty obvious. It opens up by saying "this is a memory I never had", and before too long, Ange 'finds out' that Hachijo is a witch...not in the magic sense, but in the true, multi-world meta sense. Unless witches like that really do exist, that particular scene is very likely a fake. As I've said, the only scene that doesn't reach the level of clearly and provably fake is the very last one, when Ange mentions that the character Featherinne was written about in Hachijo's book. But then again, even there, Ange suggests that Featherine might be the real one and Hachijo the fake. So it doesn't really make sense to say that there's no difference between the credibility of EP4 and EP6 future scenes.
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Old 2010-06-06, 11:03   Link #10869
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The one who says "this is a memory I never had" is probably Meta-Ange, which then finds herself in the metaversion of Hachijo's study.

So the fact that she doesn't remember that event is only proof of an inconsistency between the two worlds. Believing that this sentence is a proof of EP6's world unreliability is the same as assuming that the one who think it is the "true Ange".

and then again I have found a clear inconsistency between the TIPS and the 1998 of EP4. So I don't really think this world has the upper hand in credibility.
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Old 2010-06-06, 11:17   Link #10870
chronotrig
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The one who says "this is a memory I never had" is probably Meta-Ange, which then finds herself in the metaversion of Hachijo's study.

So the fact that she doesn't remember that event is only proof of an inconsistency between the two worlds. Believing that this sentence is a proof of EP6's world unreliability is the same as assuming that the one who think it is the "true Ange".
What? She thinks this before we go to the Featherine section of the scene. The only Ange we ever see thinks this way. In other words, we never see the supposed "Ange" of the EP6 world, and the only other character we see, other than an occasional Amakusa, is clearly not who she first claims to be. In other words, we aren't shown a single reliable thing about this EP6 1998, and that is made clear since the beginning. Compare with EP4, and the difference is clear.

Anyways, what you've found there isn't actually an inconsistency, if you think about it. Looking at Amakusa and Ange's behavior on the run, it's clear that Ange is used to having money, so Eva must have been willing to spend quite a lot on her. Don't forget how expensive that school was supposed to be, or that Eva tried to groom Ange to become the next head before she (apparently) gave up on her. Also, Ange has probably been the full head for a month or so before she goes to Rokkenjima.

And even if it was an inconsistency, it wouldn't matter. If the EP4 future is a branch future, as I've suggested, then the Ange there might be different from the Ange in another world. It would still be true, but not within the same timeline as the other games. As opposed to EP6, which might never have existed in any world.
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2010-06-06 at 11:32.
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Old 2010-06-06, 12:00   Link #10871
Renall
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Well, with the Author Theory, nothing's really that hard to explain. Once you have that, the entire game is pretty easy, and most of it is trivial, at least with the way most people decide to apply that theory.
I'm not sure that's entirely the case. The message bottles and payout letters are actually really hard to explain with an Author Theory perspective. It's very "easy" to explain how they were set up, but if the only 1998 we're willing to entertain is the one we see in ep4 (and who knows if that's not fictional either, really), it's arguably more difficult to explain why than most standard theories.

One of its biggest failings is that it's distrustful of everything that's written and assumes it's mostly applicable as a contrast between the unknown "author" (or authors) and what he or she thinks about the Rokkenjima Incident, rather than what actually did happen. Since this person is entirely unidentified, it's pretty much the enemy of fans of the mystery and fans of the romance. Especially if most of the characters really did die in 1986. Then what was the point of any of their struggles or dreams?

The big problem really becomes "who cares?" Though I've often explored Author Theory, I can't really answer that. Unless more hints are dropped about it, I think it's a plausible wild theory, but little more than that.
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Old 2010-06-06, 12:33   Link #10872
DgBarca
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Sorry to talk about something else but...
I have an acutal in-game clue for Kanon being the murderer of Eva and Hideyoshi :
Spoiler for Huge:

Ep4 anyone ?
(alsothis, LORD..."LORD U" anyone ?)
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Old 2010-06-06, 13:46   Link #10873
Kit
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Oh my god...that's brilliant. I totally did not see this correlation! If this is the case, I wonder how this reflects on Kumasawa and Genji...

As for Lord U - following this train of thought, does it then refer to Kanon? Does Kanon have something to do with Battler's Birthright, or the baby killed 19 years ago?
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Old 2010-06-06, 13:46   Link #10874
Jan-Poo
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What? She thinks this before we go to the Featherine section of the scene. The only Ange we ever see thinks this way. In other words, we never see the supposed "Ange" of the EP6 world, and the only other character we see, other than an occasional Amakusa, is clearly not who she first claims to be. In other words, we aren't shown a single reliable thing about this EP6 1998, and that is made clear since the beginning. Compare with EP4, and the difference is clear.

Anyways, what you've found there isn't actually an inconsistency, if you think about it. Looking at Amakusa and Ange's behavior on the run, it's clear that Ange is used to having money, so Eva must have been willing to spend quite a lot on her. Don't forget how expensive that school was supposed to be, or that Eva tried to groom Ange to become the next head before she (apparently) gave up on her. Also, Ange has probably been the full head for a month or so before she goes to Rokkenjima.

And even if it was an inconsistency, it wouldn't matter. If the EP4 future is a branch future, as I've suggested, then the Ange there might be different from the Ange in another world. It would still be true, but not within the same timeline as the other games. As opposed to EP6, which might never have existed in any world.
What would be the purpose of making a clear distinction between hachijo's study and the metaversion of the same study if they are both false?
You can't say that there isn't any difference since ryukishi even created different background images.

Now the purpose of the 1998 of EP4 can be explained with the author theory as part of a story written by Hachijo. But what kind of purpose the 1998 of EP6 can have? Why would Ryukishi show us that and why would he make it look separated from the metaworld?

Quote:
The big problem really becomes "who cares?" Though I've often explored Author Theory, I can't really answer that. Unless more hints are dropped about it, I think it's a plausible wild theory, but little more than that.
I think the many-world interpretation is a lot wilder than the author theory. If you forget about Higurashi (and Ryukishi warned us about thinking they are set in the same universe) you really don't have any single element to support such a theory.

Beatrice never talked about going in different universes, she always told us about the set up of the games as a creation process and not a selection. and in ep5 and ep6 we got an exponential increase of hints supporting the author theory, while we still have a constant lack hints supporting the manyworld interpretation.

Even Bern's kakera and the sea of kakera can only be interpreted as many worlds only if you are already assuming Bern's power is the same as the Bern of Higurashi (which is imo is by itself a terribly wrong assumption).
Otherwise all of those things can be as well seen as "kakera=fictional universe" "sea of kakera=a metaplane from where you can look into many fictional worlds".

As I pointed out in another instance if Bern's power was the power to travel among many worlds, she'd be totally immune to Beatrice's smokescreen, since she'd be able to witness what happens in Rokkenjima without any meddling fake scene.

However in EP5 she can't see anything that wasn't already shown in a previous game. And she says the actual location of Kinzo's hometown was never told, even if, logically, should she actually possess the power to travel through worlds, finding out where Kinzo's hometown is should be extremely easy.
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Old 2010-06-06, 14:16   Link #10875
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All fair points. There are also a lot of hints dropped in ep6 that the "game" Bernkastel was trapped in wasn't Higurashi. Or at least, it doesn't match up. Naturally, our assumption that this is the case is going to lead us down that road, but maybe not! If we discard any prior backstory and take Bern and Lambda at face value, it's hard to even be sure they're anything but literary devices in the first place. Now granted, we have an Ange in a 1998 setting apparently interacting with Bern, so who knows. Where would Ange have heard of Frederica Bernkastel? As far as we know, Maria never once dealt with any such person or wrote about her. And why should she? So what's with that scene?

EDIT: Also of interest. In Ep6, Battler is referencing the "kakera" while writing his own episode. If the kakera were merely a set of all possible universes, he would select an appropriate kakera that fits his circumstances. The fact that he has to write his own somewhat insinuates that the story he wrote did not already exist. If the sea of kakera encompassed all possible realities, this would either mean that Battler's story should already exist, or Battler's story is not a possible reality. In either case, it wouldn't make any sense.
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Old 2010-06-06, 14:29   Link #10876
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The main problem I see is the fact that even with the manyworld intepretation you still need to imagine that the Game Master needs to create a story to cover the real story.
That's because the process of creation is at this point undeniable.

So in the end the manyworld interpretation doesn't really have any purpose, because the fake story creation process by itself can explain all the differences among the various games, and you only need a single "real world" which all of them are based upon.

Why you need many worlds, when the Gamemaster already has the power to make changes to such worlds?
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Old 2010-06-06, 14:31   Link #10877
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All fair points. There are also a lot of hints dropped in ep6 that the "game" Bernkastel was trapped in wasn't Higurashi. Or at least, it doesn't match up. Naturally, our assumption that this is the case is going to lead us down that road, but maybe not! If we discard any prior backstory and take Bern and Lambda at face value, it's hard to even be sure they're anything but literary devices in the first place. Now granted, we have an Ange in a 1998 setting apparently interacting with Bern, so who knows. Where would Ange have heard of Frederica Bernkastel? As far as we know, Maria never once dealt with any such person or wrote about her. And why should she? So what's with that scene?

EDIT: Also of interest. In Ep6, Battler is referencing the "kakera" while writing his own episode. If the kakera were merely a set of all possible universes, he would select an appropriate kakera that fits his circumstances. The fact that he has to write his own somewhat insinuates that the story he wrote did not already exist. If the sea of kakera encompassed all possible realities, this would either mean that Battler's story should already exist, or Battler's story is not a possible reality. In either case, it wouldn't make any sense.
The world of Kakera is not influanced by space or TIME ? Or not ?
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Old 2010-06-06, 15:40   Link #10878
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If we discard any prior backstory and take Bern and Lambda at face value, it's hard to even be sure they're anything but literary devices in the first place.
You know, this is why I suspect that they too are characters in the story. Every meta-world character is... Because the character development with the gameboard characters feels mostly finished, except of course the culprit(s). But now the character development in Chiru seems to have been moved to meta-Battler and meta-Beatrice/Moetrice.

When I say character development, I don't mean a reveal about their past or anything. I mean the changes the characters goes through like Shannon becoming confident, Kanon confessing and then losing to Shannon, Maria losing and regaining her Sakutarou, etc.

And in EP6, I thought I saw some actual character development with Lambda and Bernkastel. Lambda actually tried to spare Battler some anguish and Bernkastel seems to be turning into a villain with Featherine... 8)

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If the sea of kakera encompassed all possible realities, this would either mean that Battler's story should already exist, or Battler's story is not a possible reality. In either case, it wouldn't make any sense.
I don't believe the people select through a sea of kakera as well like in Higurashi but we did get that scene with Bernkastel showing Battler what seemed to be a sea of kakera with many different outcomes.

And yet, Bernkastel starting EP7 seems to be preparing to 'write' the story, as it showed at the end of EP6. Why wouldn't she just choose from a kakera? After all, she was the one who showed Battler?

So maybe... although this might not be useful speculation, the sea of kakera is not a set of infinite possibilities. It's limited to something... like maybe the number of stories written up by people. And so if you want something new to happen you have to write it first. Then it gets added to the kakera.

The set of infinite possibilities (the 'Endless' in Beatrice's magic) is the ability for anyone to write up an Umineko story. Maybe.
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Old 2010-06-06, 16:05   Link #10879
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I think there is a misunderstanding here. In Higurashi Rika doesn't "select" her Kakeras. What happens in them is more of a gamble than anything you never know what to expect. All of the scenarios start with the same circumstances it's how the environment changes from people's choices that make them into "different kakeras". In a way Rika and her friends actions wrote the story.

How that applies to Umineko is probably a different thing altogether. I just wanted to clear that up though because I don't think selecting a scenario that suits the time has ever been part of the Kakera concept.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-06-06 at 16:33.
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Old 2010-06-06, 16:09   Link #10880
Uberzaki
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Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: United Kingdom, in a world of my own.
That world of higurashi bit Renall mentioned was actually an idea of mine up to some point. Eventually we all have to get to a point where we just stop thinking about it.

The point on anti-mystery is that you, the reader, will keep on reading until you get a satisfactory ending, if you overthink things you will eventually come to a conclusion that a witch did this and you will put the book down, or you will carry on deconstructing it untill you believe there are several rokkenjimas all with corresponding different locks on the doors and someone is carrying keys from different islands.

It could go something like this:

e.g. Island 1 shed = key 1

Island 2 Chapel = key 1

Island 3 = key 1

Island 4 = key 1 find key 2

If anyone can deconstruct it in a different way or further then feel free to

and so on and so on

Last edited by Uberzaki; 2010-06-06 at 16:10. Reason: slight tidbit added
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