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Old 2010-06-25, 16:09   Link #11601
TTR
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Argument 1: This is the only practical way to reliably instigate a fake first twilight, which is how I stumbled on the idea in the first place. That alone is not much, but,

Quote:
Originally Posted by Argument 2
;#ff0000もともと黄金郷の黄金はこの子のもの。#ffffff@/
`#ff0000the gold of the Golden Land belongs to this child.#ffffff `@/
That fits so much better than having found the gold before that I don't think there's much of a contest.
The true implication that the person is the head of the family is the ring itself. Finding the gold has nothing to do with it until the Beatrice RECOGNIZES the fact that the person has found the gold and thus gives them the ring a la EP5 when Battler recieves the headship ring. The gold being that of "this child" or Beatrice has nothing do with headship. It is solely the ring that matters. Beatrice could simply be someone who has and finds the ring and the gold, but isn't the head of the family or is any way tied to the headship.


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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Well, duh, like that person ever uses the name "Beatrice" on legal documents. Please don't be silly. Did you read anything of what I wrote above? Someone has the practical headship, that is, owns the majority share of the holding company that holds the entire Ushiromiya wealth and the deed to the island as well. That someone is required to exist to bypass the 70% inheritance tax that would trigger if the shares of the holding company were passed down through a legal will. This someone is whom I refer to as "Beatrice". Whatever real first name they have does not matter as long as Ushiromiya is their last name, which is how Eva can inherit them by law (and pay the 70% inheritance tax) after they, in turn, die, and Eva survives.



I meant the wealth of the head house, rather than the wealth of the companies owned by the individual branch families, which are not wholly owned subsidiaries of the Ushiromiya Group despite financial ties -- otherwise, there would be no need to badger Krauss for money.
If such a company existed, or someone owns a majority share, A) they would have come up already, and B) Krauss would know about it. If it were an Ushiromiya, there would be no need for the extortion because they already have the upperhand in battling Krauss. Krauss is the main figure in dealing with Kinzo's wealth. That's been said multiple times and is the basis for his embezzlement, remember? He would have known if someone held a majority share of the wealth and would have acted accordingly, or otherwise the whole "extortion" scenes in ALL the books would be useless if Beatrice, or the major share holder, was an Ushiromiya.

Also, remember, Devil's Proof means that you can't disprove what I say. The only thing that can trump a Devil's Proof is a proof that what I claim can't happen. Devil's proof is simply "You can't disprove the existence of the Devil. Therefore, under Devil's Proof, the devil exists because you can't prove otherwise." Until you can disprove that what I say isn't true, then what I say stands as its own truth
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:11   Link #11602
Kaisos Erranon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Since person X does not exist.
You can't actually say this in red anymore. It's been pointed out before in this thread that if Erika doesn't exist AND Shkanon is true, there is room for one more person on the island.

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Originally Posted by siberius View Post
So basically, the only way to logically explain this situation, is to assume that someone is impersonating for one of the mentioned 15 dead characters and the original is dead.
Or one of the people Battler thought was dead actually wasn't, and it was this person that killed Nanjo, later succumbing to their own injuries.

This allows Eva-Beatrice to declare this person as deceased in red.

Most people agree that this person has to be Kyrie. The TIPS even point out that stomach wounds aren't very fatal.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:12   Link #11603
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Battler says in episode 5 that "the murders are really easy mysteries to solve". So it's probably better to look at character and motive than how the murders were done. By this point you should know what theories work to solve the closed rooms and the murders and what doesn't. If you don't know what those are you need to reread the game.

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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
You can't actually say this in red anymore. It's been pointed out before in this thread that if Erika doesn't exist AND Shkanon is true, there is room for one more person on the island.
It was said that therefore person X does not exist In red. I'm not pulling it out of nowhere. You can make theories like that if you want, but I think your barking up the wrong tree. We're aiming to get less suspects not add more in. I think Battler has given up on this reasoning also.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:15   Link #11604
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I suppose Shkannon does allow a Person X (even with Erika... after all, she raises the amount of people on the island by one). On the other hand, this Person X can't be the culprit unless they're Ange(?), Asumu(??) or some other person who's namedropped right at the start :/.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:15   Link #11605
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
That one would be absolutely lovely, but Ange would remember.
They never told Ange either, because everyone provably hates her and enjoys hearing that she's sick and ignores her absence. After having been traumatized several years in a row by the murder "games," Ange formed a mental block that was solidified by the real incident. Eva would have brought it up, but she was so traumatized herself that she refused to speak on it again.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:20   Link #11606
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Hehehe, so I guess Tube Theory and Devil's Proof got me a victory in the double homocide theory? :3
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:20   Link #11607
Oliver
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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
...It is solely the ring that matters. Beatrice could simply be someone who has and finds the ring, but isn't the head of the family or is any way tied to the headship.
I'm sorry, but that's pure nonsense. See the previous long discussion on what happens to the ring.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TTR View Post
If such a company existed, or someone owns a majority share, A) they would have come up already, and B) Krauss would know about it.
If such a company did not exist, the family is penniless as they cannot pay the 70% tax on property, which is paid by valuation. Kinzo owns a whole island worth of property, which would be valued at a very high sum. Look it up, that tax is 50% now, it was 70% back then. It is not necessary for the person to come up, they can nicely vanish after Kinzo signs the shares off. And interestingly, Krauss doesn't have to know either.

But if he does know, what would change?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TTR View Post
If it were an Ushiromiya, there would be no need for A) the extortion because they already have the upperhand in battling Krauss. Krauss is the main figure in dealing with Kinzo's wealth. That's been said multiple times and is the basis for his embezzlement, remember?
Therefore, they do not participate in the extortion and are not aware of it until coming to the island. That leaves: George, Jessica, Maria.

So?
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:23   Link #11608
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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Hehehe, so I guess Tube Theory and Devil's Proof got me a victory in the double homocide theory? :3
No, it's just not worth the time spent proving that it is impossible for your "devil" to exist.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:23   Link #11609
Judoh
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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Hehehe, so I guess Tube Theory and Devil's Proof got me a victory in the double homocide theory? :3
Your dreaming. After episode 5 all theories need hints. Knox's 8th and Knox's 6th. Nobody uses the Devil's proof anymore because of that.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:25   Link #11610
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
If such a company did not exist, the family is penniless as they cannot pay the 70% tax on property, which is paid by valuation. Kinzo owns a whole island worth of property, which would be valued at a very high sum. Look it up, that tax is 50% now, it was 70% back then. It is not necessary for the person to come up, they can nicely vanish after Kinzo signs the shares off. And interestingly, Krauss doesn't have to know either.

But if he does know, what would change?
If anyone who isn't Beatrice is handling the assets I'd say it's Okonogi. He seems plenty trustworthy to me.

it could also be Kinzo's buddies at the GHQ though too.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:26   Link #11611
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Poor Battler. His favourite method of attack ruined...

It also eliminates the possibility of Theoretical Stake Shooting Device X.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:30   Link #11612
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
If anyone who isn't Beatrice is handling the assets I'd say it's Okonogi. He seems plenty trustworthy to me.

it could also be Kinzo's buddies at the GHQ though too.
There is a chance that it's Okonogi who's the legal owner of Ushiromiya Group, holding it until Kinzo's instructions arrive on whom to give it to. Then Eva emerges alone from the island and he hands it over, finding out that everyone except Eva is dead. But the gold of the Golden Land belongs to this child. is still red...

Then again... I don't think Okonogitrice has ever been thought of yet, and he is surely knowledgeable about the 'love' without which it cannot be seen.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:31   Link #11613
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
I'm sorry, but that's pure nonsense. See the previous long discussion on what happens to the ring.



If such a company did not exist, the family is penniless as they cannot pay the 70% tax on property, which is paid by valuation. Kinzo owns a whole island worth of property, which would be valued at a very high sum. Look it up, that tax is 50% now, it was 70% back then. It is not necessary for the person to come up, they can nicely vanish after Kinzo signs the shares off. And interestingly, Krauss doesn't have to know either.

But if he does know, what would change?



Therefore, they do not participate in the extortion and are not aware of it until coming to the island. That leaves: George, Jessica, Maria.

So?
Someone already owns the island according to EP5. Remember? Krauss put island and the mansion up as collateral for a loan already. Someone has the deed and Krauss doesn't have any leeway. The could pull their deed on the island and mansion and kick the family off. They already are penniless. The person who owns the land would have to pay tax, not the Ushiromiya family. Aside from a supposed gold, there is no Ushiromiya fortune to speak of. Someone already has the deed to both the island and the mansion as it is no longer in the Ushiromiya name.

In any case, how about this nonsense?

This current game, i.e. all of its events before, during, and after, occur in a unique universe. i.e. Because "Rokkenjima" does not exist in our world, and it is NOT an island in the real Izu archipelago that we know in the real world, real world things outside of what is said in the novel (i.e. property taxes, inheritance taxes) do not apply to the current game. Unless 07 or a narration in the book supports your 70% tax theory in ANY color, you can not bring that the tax rate is 70% or that it even exists as a fact. You can't prove that the tax rate is, but I can't prove that it isn't. You can claim the tax rate is 70%, but I can also claim that tax doesn't matter. Both situations exists simply as a Braun Tube or Schrodinger's Cat.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:36   Link #11614
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
There is a chance that it's Okonogi who's the legal owner of Ushiromiya Group, holding it until Kinzo's instructions arrive on whom to give it to. Then Eva emerges alone from the island and he hands it over, finding out that everyone except Eva is dead. But the gold of the Golden Land belongs to this child. is still red...

Then again... I don't think Okonogitrice has ever been thought of yet, and he is surely knowledgeable about the 'love' without which it cannot be seen.
I've been thinking that the gold has to be a hidden asset so it shouldn't show up anywhere on on a balance sheet, but I can't resist the idea of of Okonogitrice that'd be awesome! As long as he doesn't have any part in the murders.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TTR View Post
This current game, i.e. all of its events before, during, and after, occur in a unique universe. i.e. Because "Rokkenjima" does not exist in our world, and it is NOT an island in the real Izu archipelago that we know in the real world, real world things outside of what is said in the novel (i.e. property taxes, inheritance taxes) do not apply to the current game. Unless 07 or a narration in the book supports your 70% tax theory in ANY color, you can not bring that the tax rate is 70% or that it even exists as a fact. You can't prove that the tax rate is, but I can't prove that it isn't. You can claim the tax rate is 70%, but I can also claim that tax doesn't matter. Both situations exists simply as a Braun Tube or Schrodinger's Cat.
Why don't you read what he's posted so you get a general idea what he's talking about? There are certain inheritance laws in Japan and ways to avoid them. Since embellishment has the same consequences in Umineko as it does IRL we should assume it's the same with inheritance also.


http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...ostcount=11520
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...ostcount=11163
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:44   Link #11615
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Your dreaming. After episode 5 all theories need hints. Knox's 8th and Knox's 6th. Nobody uses the Devil's proof anymore because of that.
Well, A) No one has ever confirmed that this is a Knox mystery, Even Dlanor said it could be that this mystery doesn't fall into Knox territory completely.

and B) Eva pulls the trigger instinctively when Jessica attempts to attack her near the end of the third book. She then tries to pass it off as instinct and she didn't know why she did it. That in itself is a hint the Eva, and potentially anyone on the island, can shoot without confirming the exact context of the situation. Unexpected double homocide can still stand.

Embezzlement laws do not equal inheritance laws. Inheritance laws are still ungoverned in the narration.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:45   Link #11616
Oliver
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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Someone already owns the island according to EP5. Remember? Krauss put island and the mansion up as collateral for a loan already. Someone has the deed and Krauss doesn't have any leeway. The could pull their deed on the island and mansion and kick the family off. They already are penniless.
I'm pretty sure he only mentions the mansion but not the entire island. Regardless, Krauss can do it if he is Kinzo's agent and the CEO of the holding company.

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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Aside from a supposed gold, there is no Ushiromiya fortune to speak of.
Well, the gold exists in red in any case.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TTR View Post
This current game, i.e. all of its events before, during, and after, occur in a unique universe. i.e. Because "Rokkenjima" does not exist in our world, and it is NOT an island in the real Izu archipelago that we know in the real world, real world things outside of what is said in the novel (i.e. property taxes, inheritance taxes) do not apply to the current game. Unless 07 or a narration in the book supports your 70% tax theory in ANY color, you can not bring that the tax rate is 70% or that it even exists as a fact.
Knox's 8th If the inheritance law in this supposed universe is in any way different from the one in our universe, the required clue to solving the mystery is not presented, therefore, it is not in any way different. Otherwise, you could just as simply argue that some people in this universe can teleport by disappearing in one location and appearing in another, bypassing the red by not "entering" a location in this manner.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:46   Link #11617
Oliver
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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Well, A) No one has ever confirmed that this is a Knox mystery, Even Dlanor said it could be that this mystery doesn't fall into Knox territory completely.
Sure. That's because Rule 5 is broken, as Beatrice is the Japanese equivalent of Fu Manchu in a Western mystery, which Rule 5 forbids. Which is why it is not possible to say in red that "all Knox rules apply".

The rest are said in red and therefore apply.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:52   Link #11618
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I gave my Eva hint, did you read it? Are you going to say that it's not a hint that Eva, and potentially any human being on the island, doesn't shoot on instinct without fully understanding the context of the situation?

Also. Kinzo uses an epitaph and everyone assumes it's a will/rules for the headship. How would that in any way legal in our world or Japan for that matter? So far in the narration it is ASSUMED that Kinzo is using the epitaph to choose the next head. There is no legal document that has been stated anywhere in the novels that "He who solves the epitaph shall be the inheritor of my fortune and successor to the headship. Signed Ushiromiya Kinzo."

The existence of the epitaph and the assumption that the person who solves the epitaph would become the new successor and inheritor of the fortune is hint enough that inheritance laws are slightly different in the Rokkenjima world then our real world. Therefore we can NOT assume that all of our laws are the same as gameboard laws.
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Old 2010-06-25, 16:55   Link #11619
Judoh
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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Well, A) No one has ever confirmed that this is a Knox mystery, Even Dlanor said it could be that this mystery doesn't fall into Knox territory completely.
Well yeah, but at most Knox's 8th and Knox's 6th do in fact apply because there is no reason they couldn't. Dlanor also admitted that the existence of the red implies there are hints you can solve the game with so we should be required to use those hints to come to the answer.

Quote:
and B) Eva pulls the trigger instinctively when Jessica attempts to attack her near the end of the third book. She then tries to pass it off as instinct and she didn't know why she did it. That in itself is a hint the Eva, and potentially anyone on the island, can shoot without confirming the exact context of the situation. Unexpected double homocide can still stand.
Whatever. Sure it's possible. Eva would never attack Hideyoshi though and she wouldn't point a gun at him. Any reasoning saying she wouldn't recognize him and shoot him is very weak. You said it was a joke theory anyway didn't you?

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Embezzlement laws do not equal inheritance laws. Inheritance laws are still ungoverned in the narration.
That's all your opinion. Try looking at the different angles here.
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Old 2010-06-25, 17:03   Link #11620
Oliver
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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Also. Kinzo uses an epitaph and everyone assumes it's a will/rules for the headship. How would that in any way legal in our world? So far in the narration it is ASSUMED that Kinzo is using the epitaph to choose the next head. There is no legal document that has been stated anywhere in the novels that "He who solves the epitaph shall be the inheritor of my fortune and successor to the headship. Signed Ushiromiya Kinzo."
It would not be legal in our world according to Japanese inheritance law, because of the reserved portions. But the holding company is there to BYPASS the inheritance law in the first place, which allows Kinzo to do exactly that with the epitaph. Once Kinzo hands the shares off to a third party, their further progress can be governed by contract law or tradition in whichever manner Kinzo chooses, without actually breaking the inheritance law.

It is possible, for example, to sign a contract of arbitrary complexity, which requires the person Kinzo hands shares off to sell them to a third party for a nominal sum if certain conditions are met. I'd need a lot of research in a paper library to say if that would be legal, but I suspect it could be. Simply trusting the person to do what Kinzo wants with those shares is easier.

You know, refusing to listen to what your opponent says does not actually win you an argument, someone must have tricked you when they told you it does.
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