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Old 2010-06-25, 17:03   Link #11621
TTR
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Hahaha what got me the most angry was my feeling that my theory was being dis proven with abstract and unproven concepts even though it still had backing in many hints and theories. I usually play nice in this thread anyway. The reasoning weak, but it's still there. I guess that was my point.

In any case, taking in the fact that those reds that Virgilia gives us in EP5, I wonder what Beatrice's motives for murder could be? It's kind of hard trying to figure it out with "Not Revenge" "Not To Instill Fear" and "Not For Pleasure" being restrictions. Then again, I really do think that "Fake Murders escape those restrictions." Like I told k// when I was discussing this, I really think Shkanon and Fake Murders is really going to solve this thing
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Old 2010-06-25, 17:09   Link #11622
Judoh
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There is my theory.

And there is playing cupid and Battler's sin as a motive.

It's also possible Beatrice is suicidal and doesn't want to die alone.
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Old 2010-06-25, 17:09   Link #11623
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
It would not be legal in our world according to Japanese inheritance law, because of the reserved portions. But the holding company is there to BYPASS the inheritance law in the first place, which allows Kinzo to do exactly that with the epitaph. Once Kinzo hands the shares off to a third party, their further progress can be governed by contract law or tradition in whichever manner Kinzo chooses, without actually breaking the inheritance law.

It is possible, for example, to sign a contract of arbitrary complexity, which requires the person Kinzo hands shares off to sell them to a third party for a nominal sum if certain conditions are met. I'd need a lot of research in a paper library to say if that would be legal, but I suspect it could be. Simply trusting the person to do what Kinzo wants with those shares is easier.

You know, refusing to listen to what your opponent says does not actually win you an argument, someone must have tricked you when they told you it does.
Counter with this:

Kinzo has been known to see his family as vultures. i.e. The opening of EP1 is specifically where he says it in the novels. Also he found no need to write a will or to even leave his fortune within the family. IIRC, he said that he would rather end his fortune and legacy with himself rather then leave it to his incompetent family.

Assuming that is a hint, why would Kinzo A) Write the epitaph in the first place, B) Entrust a random third party if he doesn't even trust his family, and C) If he even trusted the third party company that much, why would he allow that same company who would close off his legacy to distribute his wealth among the same people he was known to despise?

This is assuming that the scene in the beginning of EP1 takes place 3 months (approximately, taking from what Nanjo said) from the scene from EP5. Thus, it fits into the continuity of the pre-Board Game settings (which is that Kinzo is always dead) without having to regard that the scene didn't happen.
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Old 2010-06-25, 17:13   Link #11624
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We don't really Know that Kinzo didn't trust the family that much, and many of us suspect he didn't until much much later at least. We don't really have to trust those scenes as an absolute judge of his character. If Erika's reasoning for why the epitaph was displayed is right he did create the epitaph for them to solve and get the inheritance. She and Battler did solve it so there might be something to that. There also scenes that say anyone even Kanon could solve it.
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Old 2010-06-25, 17:17   Link #11625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
We don't really Know that Kinzo didn't trust the family that much, and many of us suspect he didn't until much much later at least. We don't really have to trust those scenes as an absolute judge of his character. If Erika's reasoning for why the epitaph was displayed is right he did create the epitaph for them to get the inheritance and she and Battler did solve it so there might be something to that.
Hm...

I can't fight that line of reasoning without running wildly, so I guess I'll have to resign that line of reasoning,. Although, I want to point out that when Erika said that it was completely in normal text. Therefore we don't know if Erika said that with ulterior motives or not. Based on the evidence that BOTH Bern and Erika tried to bully Natsuhi by weaving the Kinzo in the Bed reds, I'm taking that as a hint that although Erika is detective she is never fully impartial and all of her comments and narration is to be taken with a grain of salt and are NOT full truths.

Another reasoning:

Even though everyone played along with Kinzo being alive in many of the board games, (and even get convinced that he is still alive through those "I wouldn't put it past Kinzo" scenes in EP5 after Battler gives reasoning he could have escaped the room), it still turns out he was dead. This epitaph could be the same thing, where everyone assumes it's his will and testaments when it could be revealed that it isn't :/
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Old 2010-06-25, 17:35   Link #11626
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Assuming that is a hint, why would Kinzo A) Write the epitaph in the first place, B) Entrust a random third party if he doesn't even trust his family, and C) If he even trusted the third party company that much, why would he allow that same company who would close off his legacy to distribute his wealth among the same people he was known to despise?
Assuming that is a hint, the answer is provided in the hint itself -- Nanjo talked him into it. Further discussions with Nanjo in particular during Ep4, which describe what Kinzo thinks of his grandchildren (he actually agrees they deserve a chance) provide a hint that he may have decided to offer a test to these grandchildren.

It is not possible to "leave everything to person who satisfies condition X" under a legal will, but the majority of Kinzo's wealth is not going to be transferred under a legal will anyway.

The practical method for bypassing the tax at the time, as far as I have been able to find out, is to do this:
  • You're the testator, that is, you want to will someone property without anyone paying the tax. So you create a holding company that you own.
  • Sell your property to the holding company for a nominal sum. Feed the holding company with some money to pay yearly property taxes, whatever.
  • Create a trust, where you are the trustee (and get to use the property and shares anyway) and the one you wish to will the property is the beneficiary (i.e. the real owner). You can use the property until you die as if you were the owner, but the real owner is different now.
  • Upon your death, the ownership of the shares of the holding company instantly snaps back to the one you designated as the beneficiary, so they now own the shares of the company that owns the property, and don't have to pay the tax since they "owned" it anyway since you created the trust.
There are probably more complicated variants of same, but as far as I am aware, all of them only work if the property goes to a specific person. As far as we know, Kinzo, dissatisfied with his children, did not decide whom everything goes to when he dies, and Ep4 heavily hints that he needed a different scheme which involved a headship test.

That headship test scheme requires a person to exist who will do as Kinzo wishes, will be the legal owner of the holding company, and may be contractually bound to do as Kinzo wishes. Okonogi actually fits, just so you know -- he's not on the island so he doesn't die, and can complete the entire mess when Eva is back.

Along the way of your argument, you're messing up multiple different companies, some of which I never said exist. I'm not about to whip up a diagram editor, so you'll have to bear with this representation:
  • Kinzo is the majority shareholder of....
  • Ushiromiya Group LLC, the holding company, which probably has Krauss as it's CEO, and owns...
  • Island (real estate), Other Stuff (real estate), Whatever Krauss actually built, bought, etc (mostly real estate).

Krauss can embezzle in several ways -- by being Kinzo's agent (and thus allowed to make decisions regarding what Kinzo did not sell to the holding company -- mansion itself, for example, may be part of either Kinzo's pocket money or property of Ushiromiya Group) or by being the CEO of the Ushiromiya Group (and thus siphoning money out of it).

P.S. That Ushiromiya Group, in turn, may own more companies, one of which can be Krauss' personal toy and own everything he made while in active business. Zaibatsu organisation can be very massive and complicated, and back when zaibatsu ruled, often included it's own pet bank that all the companies that are part of the zaibatsu would use.
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Old 2010-06-25, 17:55   Link #11627
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I'll listen to what you have to say, but again, I just want to point out what Judoh said. Nothing is an exact testament to character, so your line of reasoning isn't any more stable then mine. If anything, these contradictory truths are really odd. For example, even if Nanjo is Kinzo's friend, then why does he keep drinking spirits and liquor even though Nanjo's words always ill-advised it? Why would he suddenly listen to Nanjo out of nowhere if that has never truly been the case?

That sudden switch in characterization can't really be founded on anything :/

The only person that Kinzo ever fully trusted is Genji. That's been repeated several times. It has never really been Nanjo :/

Also, you can't deny the fact that Kinzo himself as a business proprietor hasn't really been brought up in the books. His business ventures past "He revived the Ushiromiya name" haven't really been explained, so most of that is conjecture. Who knows, maybe he managed to liquidize all of his assets from his business ventures at some point and hide it from Krauss, leaving that as his own fortune because he doesn't trust his son. I wouldn't put that past Kinzo :/

Most of that is conjecture upon facts found in our world and there hasn't been a lot of hints to it past "Someone owns the deed tot he island because Krauss put it up as collateral" and "Kinzo has a lot of money."

Honestly, through-out most of the books that seem to speak as though Kinzo no longer has any business ventures at all, and that he's cooped up in his study all the time. Whenever a family conference happens, they always talk about the sibling's business ventures and them having to borrow money from a main liquid tank that Kinzo has set up. If the Ushiromiya family company had been reduced to a holding company rather then an actual business, then where would they borrow money from? In the context that I'm understanding, a holding company only holds stock and it's value is relative to the companies that they have stock in.

The books seem to go along with the fact that Kinzo has liquidized his business ventures in to capitol that Krauss squandered away, not a holding company that owns stock in other companies. And in any case, you can't "borrow" from a holding company unless they liquidize their assets into money.

One of the biggest themes that was brought up in one of the episodes is that the siblings were able to borrow some of the family fortune from the head and then pay it back later. Wouldn't that be odd if it was just a holding company? I guess that's just my interpretation :/
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Old 2010-06-25, 18:02   Link #11628
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The One-Winged Servants all allegedly have Kinzo's trust. Who's to say he didn't decide to entrust the matter to Kanon or Shannon? It may sound preposterous, but Kinzo's done stranger, and if Kinzo believes that one of them will appropriately carry out his wishes (perhaps they have the mentality to do it that Genji lacks, or perhaps Kinzo wants to cut Genji a break and not force this additional responsibility on him), why not?

Alternately, one of them really is his child, I suppose, or adopted as such. If Oliver is correct, that might even be necessary for holding purposes (which would make a young person viable legally, as it might be hard to adopt Genji).
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Old 2010-06-25, 18:16   Link #11629
Oliver
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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
That sudden switch in characterization can't really be founded on anything :/
That's not a switch in characterisation. I never listen when my friends tell me to stop smoking, but that doesn't even mean that I don't agree it's a good idea.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Also, you can't deny the fact that Kinzo himself as a business proprietor hasn't really been brought up in the books. His business ventures past "He revived the Ushiromiya name" haven't really been explained, so most of that is conjecture. Who knows, maybe he managed to liquidize all of his assets from his business ventures at some point and hide it from Krauss, leaving that as his own fortune because he doesn't trust his son. I wouldn't put that past Kinzo :/
Every time you say "I wouldn't put it past Kinzo", Lord Goldsmith kills an Ushiromiya. Is there anything you wouldn't put past him? No?

Then go and try to avoid putting THIS past him: http://forums.animesuki.com/showthre...68#post3009568 and the ensuing discussion.

Nobody managed to disprove Kinzotrice so far if the Shkanon assumption is true.

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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Most of that is conjecture upon facts found in our world and there hasn't been a lot of hints to it past "Someone owns the deed tot he island because Krauss put it up as collateral" and "Kinzo has a lot of money."
Epitaph riddle clearly does not have sufficient hints to solve it in the text alone, yet we are meant to think about it -- it references offworld information directly, an atlas at least. The only practical solutions to it require one to have an atlas and know some pre-World War II history. I don't see why research on law would be inapplicable while those are.

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Honestly, through-out most of the books that seem to speak as though Kinzo no longer has any business ventures at all, and that he's cooped up in his study all the time.
Sure, that's why Krauss is the CEO, but Kinzo is still the principal owner. Note the concept of "main family" and "branch family". Main family gets to keep most of the stuff.

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Originally Posted by TTR View Post
If the Ushiromiya family company had been reduced to a holding company rather then an actual business, then where would they borrow money from? In the context that I'm understanding, a holding company only holds stock and it's value is relatively to the companies that they have stock in.
From a bank owned by the holding company, for example - didn't I just say that most zaibatsu owned a pet bank that all companies owned by the top holding company worked with?

You clearly don't understand what's the point of a holding company and what differentiates it from, say, a mutual investment fund. Holding company doesn't just own stuff -- there's no point to own stuff unless you can control it. It owns controlling interest in stuff. Owners of controlling interest can, among other things, appoint top officials in owned companies, in particular the CEO. The CEO is then obliged to do as they say or be removed.
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Old 2010-06-25, 18:23   Link #11630
Judoh
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I think what he means is that money and assets get transferred to the holding company after death and that gets sent back to the the new head. I don't think he means the Ushiromiya group itself is a holding company right?
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Old 2010-06-25, 18:27   Link #11631
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Alternately, one of them really is his child, I suppose, or adopted as such. If Oliver is correct, that might even be necessary for holding purposes (which would make a young person viable legally, as it might be hard to adopt Genji).
It is required for Eva to own anything after the mess is done.

That is, if Shannon is Beatrice-the-owner-of-Ushiromiya-Group, she also has to be an "Ushiromiya X" (where X may be "Erika", as a side note ) written into the family register. Otherwise, once Shannon dies in the endgame event before signing over the shares, Ushiromiya Group becomes government property and gets auctioned, as Eva is not related to a "Whatever Sayo" in any registered way.

Kinzo may well have adopted her -- or Kanon. My only serious argument against this happening is that during his own return to the Ushiromiya family register and related bureaucratic procedures, it would be very odd for Battler not to see the full list and Shannon in it, as a copy of the current family register would inevitably be involved in the documents filed.

But he could have missed that.
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Last edited by Oliver; 2010-06-25 at 18:54. Reason: eh...
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Old 2010-06-25, 18:31   Link #11632
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But he could have missed that.
Hideyoshi might also know since he was allowed into the register too. Although Shannon already being in the family register makes George's goal to marry her into it kind of pointless. I'd want to know why she didn't say anything to him if that's the case.
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Old 2010-06-25, 18:38   Link #11633
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
That's not a switch in characterisation. I never listen when my friends tell me to stop smoking, but that doesn't even mean that I don't agree it's a good idea.
You still smoke though, so you're not taking their advice. Even though Kinzo would think "It's a good idea," he still wouldn't act on it just like you don't stop smoking. Not like I have anything against smoking, I'm actually friends with people who smoke and I never tell them anything about it. It's their choice. And smoking can be relaxing for some people.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Every time you say "I wouldn't put it past Kinzo", Lord Goldsmith kills an Ushiromiya. Is there anything you wouldn't put past him? No?

Then go and try to avoid putting THIS past him: http://forums.animesuki.com/showthre...68#post3009568 and the ensuing discussion.

Nobody managed to disprove Kinzotrice so far if the Shkanon assumption is true.
No one ever said Shkanon is true. Also, twice there have been claims that one person can't take the name of another (No one can assume Kinzo's name and no one can assume Kanon's) name. What if that was true for everyone? You could argue limitlessly that maybe even Kinzo and Kanon are the same person. You can argue a lot of things about multiple personalities. What if everyone on the island is Battler's delusion, and he doesn't have family at all? Where would that line of reasoning get anyone? It's not clever or anything, no one's logic really is. It's all just logic we use to make our own assumptions. The point of this thread is to share those assumptions and maybe laugh at each other's jokes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Epitaph riddle clearly does not have sufficient hints to solve it in the text alone, yet we are meant to think about it -- it references offworld information directly, an atlas at least. The only practical solutions to it require one to have an atlas and know some pre-World War II history. I don't see why research on law would be inapplicable while those are.
Yeah, but has a book of inheritance laws, or proof of any holding company, ever been brought up in the narration? The reason I accept the atlas is because it's show in the narration TWICE. Once for Eva and once for Erika. Not once is Kinzo's company or any regards to a book containing the laws regarding inheritance ever presented. Also, for example, the Atlas is one of the Rokkenjima world. Who's to say it's not a unique atlas that describes the unique geography of the Umineko universe? What if it contains maps completely different then a real world atlas? Have you seen the inside of their atlas? You most likely haven't, so who's to say it's exactly the same as ours?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Sure, that's why Krauss is the CEO, but Kinzo is still the principal owner. Note the concept of "main family" and "branch family". Main family gets to keep most of the stuff.



From a bank owned by the holding company, for example - didn't I just say that most zaibatsu owned a pet bank that all companies owned by the top holding company worked with?

You clearly don't understand what's the point of a holding company and what differentiates it from, say, a mutual investment fund. Holding company doesn't just own stuff -- there's no point to own stuff unless you can control it. It owns controlling interest in stuff. Owners of controlling interest can, among other things, appoint top officials in owned companies, in particular the CEO. The CEO is then obliged to do as they say or be removed.
You still can't disprove what I said about the liquidation of all of his business ventures. You keep arguing like your theory is the only truth that exists when you're not realizing that my truth also exists based on the narration. I'm not trying to make it seem like there is no company. There could be one. I'm just bringing up the idea that there might also NOT be one. :/
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Old 2010-06-25, 18:38   Link #11634
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Ah, sorry to interrupt the inheritance talks again, but....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
It was said that therefore person X does not exist
That's never been said. The red you're thinking of is "In short, this 18th person X does not exist!!"

That doesn't deny Person X, merely an "18th Person X". Although it neatly denies Erika, heh.

Although I will admit that Person X theories are generally silly, yes.
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Old 2010-06-25, 18:40   Link #11635
Oliver
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I think what he means is that money and assets get transferred to the holding company after death and that gets sent back to the the new head. I don't think he means the Ushiromiya group itself is a holding company right?
What I mean is that Ushiromiya Group is the holding company. It owns property, and whatever other companies the Ushiromiya main family has a hand in, which can work all on their own even if no Ushiromiya are involved directly, siphoning money up into the coffers, trickling it down as loans and subsidies, and otherwise working. They have CEOs of their own, Kinzo is not required to do anything to own the Ushiromiya Group itself.

The Ushiromiya Group is itself a company, who's purpose is to own controlled interest in things and direct the owned actual businesses. It's obviously not a publicly traded company, but that does not stop people from owning interest in it, i.e. shares, and Kinzo is the principal (and possibly sole) owner.

Now it's those shares that are the actual inheritance of the Ushiromiya family, because they control the entirety of the assets, including the land the gold is on and the gold itself, if it's on anyone's balance sheet. If Kinzo dies, a tax on those shares would have to be paid, and that tax would be immense even if the valuation chain is not followed through completely.

Kinzo can set up mechanisms that set up his children as the owners of those shares but keep them under his control while he is alive, but if he wants anything complicated, like creating a complex condition that leaves his grandchild as a new principal owner, a person is required as an intermediary owner of these shares while Kinzo is busy dying, for the shares to avoid being in the possession of a dead man even for a second. (That's where the inheritance tax would trigger and they would be screwed)

That person is effectively the "executor of Kinzo's will" even if they are not contractually bound to do that, "the owner of the Ushiromiya Group" and everything the Ushiromiya Group owns by law, and, Beatrice, because this is how the gold of the Golden Land belongs to her.
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Old 2010-06-25, 18:46   Link #11636
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TTR View Post
You still smoke though, so you're not taking their advice.
Sure. But that doesn't stop me from taking other advice of theirs, does it?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Yeah, but has a book of inheritance laws, or proof of any holding company, ever been brought up in the narration?
Ushiromiya Group is mentioned multiple times in Ep4, what do you think it can be?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TTR View Post
Also, for example, the Atlas is one of the Rokkenjima world. Who's to say it's not a unique atlas that describes the unique geography of the Umineko universe? What if it contains maps completely different then a real world atlas? Have you seen the inside of their atlas? You most likely haven't, so who's to say it's exactly the same as ours?
...If you're going to be that desperate, I don't think there's a point discussing this further with you, sorry.
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Old 2010-06-25, 18:51   Link #11637
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Hideyoshi might also know since he was allowed into the register too. Although Shannon already being in the family register makes George's goal to marry her into it kind of pointless. I'd want to know why she didn't say anything to him if that's the case.
Hideyoshi would have ended up in the family register at least sometime around the birth of George, which would be before Shannon was born and certainly before she could end up in the register, so he probably doesn't know unless he had a reason to request a copy of the record recently.

George trying to get married to Shannon would uncover it immediately, even though the marriage would still be possible. But Kanon is also a candidate to be Kinzo's son (or daughter), if he exists, and if my memory of Ep6 spoilers serves me right, not a weaker one.
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Old 2010-06-25, 18:52   Link #11638
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Sure. But that doesn't stop me from taking other advice of theirs, does it?
Hm, that's a completely human response, so I accept that. However, your actions do not speak for Ushiromiya Kinzo.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Ushiromiya Group is mentioned multiple times in Ep4, what do you think it can be?
Parent company that owns stock in all of the Ushiromiya ventures including but not limited to Hideyoshi's business, Rudolf's business, and Rosa's business. It has nothing to do with the inheritance or the gold. It's going to tank just like the family itself, and it explains why Kyrie's sister wants to hunt down Ange and absorb the company.



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...If you're going to be that desperate, I don't think there's a point discussing this further with you, sorry.
Aw, this was so much fun though. It's too bad we can't continue this, it's been so interesting

Also, I wanted to point out, you seem to like personally attacking people a lot, don't you? You've used the term "you" a lot and spoken for me in the second person, which is all characteristic of personal attacks. I've tried to refrain from doing that same thing because I have the decency to keep from something that brutal, but I just couldn't help myself in these past few posts. If you're really trying to use that to get points across, then I guess it's your loss in any case.
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Old 2010-06-25, 19:12   Link #11639
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
Ah, sorry to interrupt the inheritance talks again, but....



That's never been said. The red you're thinking of is "In short, this 18th person X does not exist!!"

That doesn't deny Person X, merely an "18th Person X". Although it neatly denies Erika, heh.

Although I will admit that Person X theories are generally silly, yes.
They are a bit silly, but it seems like people want to go back to this idea for some reason.

For example, one could counter the Shkanon theory with the "No one can take Kanon's name" red. But, you could still claim that because Shanon is technically Kanon, she doesn't have to take his name. She already "owns" it in a way.

I still think that specific red is still a big hole in Shkanon, but with that and the whole "Erika doesn't exist" theory makes it still technically possible to sneak a person in.

Although, I've always assumed that if Erika was accepted as a piece, she would be imaginary and not count to the 17 people mark. But if they DON'T accept her as a piece, does mean that there are still 17? Would that at least be SOME wiggle room for Kanon to be real?

Last edited by TTR; 2010-06-25 at 19:26.
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Old 2010-06-25, 19:21   Link #11640
Leafsnail
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Join Date: Jun 2010
Kanon has to have been alive for at least the fourth game, since he was the ninth victim. In fact, He was the first out of Kyrie's group to die as well (although we don't necessarily know who was actually in Kyrie's group).

And we know that Shannon and Kanon had to both exist at some point since they're counted as seperate people in the "6 people are dead" count.
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