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Old 2010-07-01, 13:15   Link #12341
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
You are right that in the letters it's always "kinzo-sama" that it is used. However there's absolutely no human piece that use it on the gameboard.

Among the non human Virgilia and Ronove both use it.
It just makes me suspect more strongly that the letters are pre-prepared, purely standalone and not connected neither to the fake first twilights nor to the epitaph murders. The extra letters which repeat in multiple episodes, like the Discord letter, would then actually be prearranged extra epitaph hints that show up out of order.

Other letters and messages from Beatrice are instead improvised, very different in style, often not confirmed to be sealed, sometimes even come without envelopes (Ep2 in the VIP room) and refer to current events.

...scary thought. The portrait was put up in April 1984... Could that be 1st of April?!
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Old 2010-07-01, 13:25   Link #12342
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
...scary thought. The portrait was put up in April 1984... Could that be 1st of April?!
In Japan, April 1st is called "liar's day", and I think they celebrate it differently so it wouldn't just be an April fools prank or anything.
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Old 2010-07-01, 13:32   Link #12343
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
In Japan, April 1st is called "liar's day", and I think they celebrate it differently so it wouldn't just be an April fools prank or anything.
Well, they certainly publish hoax newspaper articles like everybody else, though I don't know if that practice was around in 1984...
...but some of the jokes they do now look quite harsh.
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Old 2010-07-01, 15:11   Link #12344
DgBarca
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Errr...Just...how did 3 gold bars ended up in the chapel ? They were fakes or it means that someone did solve the epitaph at the beginning of all games ?
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Old 2010-07-01, 15:23   Link #12345
Oliver
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Errr...Just...how did 3 gold bars ended up in the chapel ? They were fakes or it means that someone did solve the epitaph at the beginning of all games ?
We don't have those bars as real in red, so I guess they still can be replicas.

But gold only shows up on screen in three locations -- Krauss' store room, chapel, and the gold storage. The gold in the gold storage is real in red. Krauss' store room might not even really exist. I'd say the chance for the bars in the chapel to be fake is very, very low, considering that if any other fake bars were floating around, we'd probably see them somewhere.

We do not really have evidence to say that the epitaph was actually solved just because of these bars though -- many interpretations in fact rely on someone knowing the solution beforehand, which is also plausible.
I would even say that there is a chance that Rosa knows the solution beforehand -- why doesn't she use the gold, I can't say, but I imagine that there's a very high chance she would have to bump into Eva in the archive room if she didn't know the solution and was solving simultaneously with Eva in Ep3, and yet arrived almost simultaneously. Feels too much of a freaky coincidence.

While we don't have that as evidence, interesting interpretations arise from supposing someone solves the epitaph in every episode, most notably, the possibility that the endgame event is triggered by opening the gold storage room, or the possibility that murders are committed to prevent anyone from solving the riddle next.
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Old 2010-07-01, 15:30   Link #12346
Jan-Poo
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Originally Posted by DgBarca View Post
Errr...Just...how did 3 gold bars ended up in the chapel ? They were fakes or it means that someone did solve the epitaph at the beginning of all games ?
I don't know why people find this strange. We have a red truth confirming that Beatrice owns the gold. That means Beatrice knows where the gold is.

You don't need to have a person that solves the riddle each episode, there's one that did already or knew the solution already even before the start of any game.

The easier and most simple explanation is that Beatrice brought the gold there to prove the gold's existence, and to prove that she knows where it is.
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Old 2010-07-01, 15:34   Link #12347
Oliver
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I don't know why people find this strange. We have a red truth confirming that Beatrice owns the gold. That means Beatrice knows where the gold is.
Not necessarily. That just makes it highly likely that she knows where it is, but does not guarantee it. You can legally own a patch of land in the middle of Siberia, that doesn't require you to be able to get there, or even being able to find it without a GPS.
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Old 2010-07-01, 15:43   Link #12348
Jan-Poo
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There is no kind of legal document that can attest Beatrice's right on the gold, that gold is not even "legal", any kind of written will would be just a scrap of paper in front of the law. The only way you can own that gold is by knowing where it is.
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Old 2010-07-01, 16:05   Link #12349
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
There is no kind of legal document that can attest Beatrice's right on the gold, that gold is not even "legal", any kind of written will would be just a scrap of paper in front of the law. The only way you can own that gold is by knowing where it is.
That is actually a complicated legal conundrum depending on the location a lot. In some places, it's finders keepers, in others, it's finders keepers but government gets a cut, in others, the land owner is the legal owner. It's hard to look that up in this particular case, but I insist the possibility exists to own the gold without knowing where it is any more precisely than "On Rokkenjima", however low, just for completeness sake.

But while I was trying to look it up anyway, I found an interesting passage about Yamashita's gold, apparently paraphrased from a book:

Quote:
When the gold was buried, it was done in anticipation that the Americans may defeat the Japanese and the underground vaults, tunnel, and entrances were booby trapped with gas, explosives and with water. The water traps were created by digging 300 - 350 feet underground in the dry months, at which time the water table was at its lowest.
I also noticed that when googing for "treasure hunting japan", Yamashita's treasure immediately comes out on top. I wonder if it's the same when googling in Japanese.
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Old 2010-07-01, 17:09   Link #12350
Kylon99
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
We do not really have evidence to say that the epitaph was actually solved just because of these bars though -- many interpretations in fact rely on someone knowing the solution beforehand, which is also plausible.
...

While we don't have that as evidence, interesting interpretations arise from supposing someone solves the epitaph in every episode, most notably, the possibility that the endgame event is triggered by opening the gold storage room, or the possibility that murders are committed to prevent anyone from solving the riddle next.
This is what I meant by working on clues and not evidence. 8) There's never going to be any solid evidence (or proof) of the epitaph being solved every game. At least until Ryukishi tells us outright. But this is a clue that should make us ask, 'what if?' So if you keep following your thought process there it may lead to a interesting discovery.


So for example, someone has discovered the gold. This person (or group) seems to be 'Beatrice.' This person has no interest in the gold, but in EP2 did present it to gain authority over the siblings.

Could this person have used the gold to enlist their aid in the Fake First Twilight? This would explain why Rosa was there but then had to pretend not to have been there. And then was horrified to see her siblings killed and mutilated. And then had to lie for the servants and yet was suspicious of them.

As for the epitaph itself, it could have been solved or it could have been constructed by that person. Or that person (or group) could have helped Kinzo to construct it.


So, and I am just as guilty of this as anyone else, if we start saying, "well, there's no evidence that the gold was even real" or "That scene was fake" ... then we'll be terminating our ability to think. Sure the speculation is not 100% proven true, but it may get us somewhere where we get back onto solid ground...
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Old 2010-07-01, 17:33   Link #12351
Oliver
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But this is a clue that should make us ask, 'what if?' So if you keep following your thought process there it may lead to a interesting discovery.
In case you didn't notice, asking those 'what if' questions is essentially all I have been doing for the past week.

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Could this person have used the gold to enlist their aid in the Fake First Twilight?
Unlikely as such, but if it is such, only Jessica has an opportunity to enlist anyone's aid. I already mentioned this once or twice, but I'll reiterate. The logic is like this:
  • Converting gold into liquid cash, particularly secretly, takes connections few of the islanders have. Gold which does not come with a certifiying document from a foundry, let alone unmarked, will not be readily trusted.
  • But setting that aside, a single bar weighs 10kg and costs about 20 million yen. If Nanjo Junior's testimony is to be believed, about a hundred bars had to have left Rokkenjima, which translates into a metric ton, a hundred bars. That's a lot of individual trips, since you wouldn't be able to secretly transport more than one or two bars per trip.
  • The only character present in the story who makes daily regular trips is... Jessica, who goes to school on Niijima every day. Anyone else would take way too long to transport a hundred bars.
George actually mentions the problems involved in transporting gold as soon as he gets to mentioning the legend in Ep1.

If, instead, by "Enlist help in First Twilight" we mean "Help me, here, have a physical bar of gold", then the problem of gold transportation becomes slightly different, as you need to either get people to agree to share a bar later (troublesome) or haul as many bars as you need co-conspirators (less troublesome but exhausting) or simply tell everyone to come take as much as they can carry (that's a recipe for trouble right there).

Neither of the three is impossible, but if any gold actually left the storage room, you'd think someone would trip over a bar somewhere.

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This would explain why Rosa was there but then had to pretend not to have been there. And then was horrified to see her siblings killed and mutilated. And then had to lie for the servants and yet was suspicious of them.
I very much suspect Rosa simply knew the solution to the epitaph already, since every time the gold came up in Ep1-4, she was one of the few people to touch it at all. But then it's not clear why she isn't using the gold to solve her own problems, or why exactly did she need to go check on it and bump into Eva in Ep3. Interestingly, it does not necessitate her to 'own' it, that is, be Beatrice -- she can be told the solution because she is trusted, or because it's her designated role to give out hints, which she explicitly does in Ep5.
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Old 2010-07-01, 17:58   Link #12352
k//eternal
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If Rosa knows the solution in advance, some possible reasons she hasn't made use of the gold yet are already outlined in your post, aren't they?

It's possible that her debt situation is getting desperate and she plans to take some of the gold at this conference when nobody's keeping tabs on her; it happens that she runs into Eva in EP3, but maybe she gets away with it otherwise.
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Old 2010-07-01, 18:03   Link #12353
Oliver
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It's possible that her debt situation is getting desperate and she plans to take some of the gold at this conference when nobody's keeping tabs on her; it happens that she runs into Eva in EP3, but maybe she gets away with it otherwise.
That actually works better than most variants I've thought about explicitly.

The next interesting question is, does anyone know that Rosa knows? That is, did she solve it on her own (and then rejected the idea of claiming headship) get told the solution to complete a particular task which that requires (what kind?) or something else?
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Old 2010-07-01, 18:04   Link #12354
Kylon99
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
In case you didn't notice, asking those 'what if' questions is essentially all I have been doing for the past week.
You were just the nearest person I can quote. 8) This thread moves so fast sometimes...

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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Unlikely as such, but if it is such, only Jessica has an opportunity to enlist anyone's aid. I already mentioned this once or twice, but I'll reiterate. The logic is like this:
[list][*]Converting gold into liquid cash, particularly secretly, takes connections few of the islanders have. Gold which does not come with a certifiying document from a foundry, let alone unmarked, will not be readily trusted. [*]But setting that aside, a single bar weighs 10kg and costs about 20 million yen. If Nanjo Junior's testimony is to be believed, about a hundred bars had to have left Rokkenjima, which translates into a metric ton, a hundred bars. That's a lot of individual trips, since you wouldn't be able to secretly transport more than one or two bars per trip.
Ok, but no one gets cash from gold or other assets this way. Especially rich people will offer up their assets to a bank for a loan. Even the mansions or the island can be used as collateral on a loan. If they are credible or have a business plan, they can get anywhere from 1x to 10x the amount of money the bank thinks the collateral is worth. This is how you create liquidity from non-liquid assets. 8)

In fact, that was how Kinzo supposedly created his liquid assets, according to whoever was talking about him and the gold.

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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
If, instead, by "Enlist help in First Twilight" we mean "Help me, here, have a physical bar of gold", then the problem of gold transportation becomes slightly different, as you need to either get people to agree to share a bar later (troublesome) or haul as many bars as you need co-conspirators (less troublesome but exhausting) or simply tell everyone to come take as much as they can carry (that's a recipe for trouble right there).

Neither of the three is impossible, but if any gold actually left the storage room, you'd think someone would trip over a bar somewhere.
I didn't mean that the gold had to be given out right away. 3 bars could've been taken out as kind of a proof that that person has the remaining gold and would be willing to share the money later if they just promised to do something for them.

In essence, it could be, "If you help me, then I will take out a loan with the gold and give you cold hard cash." Besides, I had a feeling that that's what Battler was going to do in EP5, with the way the siblings were pushing him to be the figure head.

Although, I'm of the opinion that the siblings in general do not know where the gold is. This is because... they try to figure it out and then Eva later discovers it. The servants however....

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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
I very much suspect Rosa simply knew the solution to the epitaph already, since every time the gold came up in Ep1-4, she was one of the few people to touch it at all. But then it's not clear why she isn't using the gold to solve her own problems, or why exactly did she need to go check on it and bump into Eva in Ep3. Interestingly, it does not necessitate her(Rosa) to 'own' it, that is, be Beatrice -- she can be told the solution because she is trusted, or because it's her designated role to give out hints, which she explicitly does in Ep5.
This is why I put Rosa into the Beatrice faction. Either she was working with them from the beginning or she is recruited early and often. I don't believe that there are things that happen most of the time without a plan though, so I think there's a plan for her since before the game started.

As for Beatrice owning the gold; if the group collectively is Beatrice then could it be possible that the majority of the servants already know where the gold is?


By the way, Oliver, while I have your attention. Do you have any ideas regarding the mirror, George, Shannon, Natsuhi, the man from 19 years ago and Moetrice? All these concepts seem linked.

- George is interested in Natsuhi's mirror and her room
- Shannon smashed the shrine mirror
- Shannon is possibly implicated by know Natsuhi's favorite season by TMF19YA.
- Beatrice claims to be weakened by the shrine mirror
- Moetrice is hurt by Natsuhi's mirror while Beatrice of Legend is not
- Moetrice is related to a woman's (Shannon?) love of Battler
- Meta-Battler decided to make Moetrice attack Natsuhi
- Natsuhi used to be a miko (Not enough fan-pics of Natsuhi in a miko fuku! ;__; )

There seems to be lots of clues here pointing to something... but what?
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Old 2010-07-01, 18:18   Link #12355
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
- George is interested in Natsuhi's mirror and her room
- Shannon smashed the shrine mirror
- Beatrice claims to be weakened by the shrine mirror
- Moetrice is hurt by Natsuhi's mirror while Beatrice of Legend is not
There seems to be lots of clues here pointing to something... but what?
I wonder if the mirror has some meaning other than just a fantasy meaning..
"There are many legends and superstitions surrounding mirrors. Mirrors are said to be a reflection of the soul, and they were often used in traditional witchcraft as tools for scrying or performing other spells. It is also said that mirrors cannot lie. They can show only the truth, so it is a very bad omen indeed to see something in a mirror which should not be there. Also there is a legend that a newborn child should not see a mirror until its first birthday as its soul is still developing. If the child sees its reflection it is said that it will die." Quoted from Wikipedia
Makes sense.. mirrors can only show the truth, which is why Beatrice is weakened by them.
If i had to interpret the part when George is interested in Natsuhi's mirror, it could mean that George wants to find out the truth and for X reason he thinks he can find something in Natsuhi's room.
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Old 2010-07-01, 18:25   Link #12356
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I'd like to point out the killer in ep2 seems to be trying hardest to make them solve the epitaph.

I mean, s/he draws everyone to the chapel (which is probably where at least part of the mechanism is) and shows everyone that the gold is real in the first twilight.

On the other hand, s/he takes out the 6 people you'd think are most likely to solve it... hmm.
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Old 2010-07-01, 18:27   Link #12357
Jan-Poo
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This is what I meant by working on clues and not evidence. 8)

*snip*
I don't think we need to work on evidences alone, but I think we need to work on "clues". What I refuse to do is working on "non clues" or on "what ifs".

Despite the fact that there's a knox rule that clearly specifies that a solution must not be reached without presented clues, I see little point in finding something by a mere random thought.

It's the same difference between cracking a password with skills and with brute force.

Even if you just happen to come across the truth by simply "scanning" every possibility not covered by the facts presented, it wouldn't be really anything satisfactory.

I don't see a detective game as a lottery. In a lottery you can buy as many tickets as you want, and it doesn't matter how many losing tickets you get, you just need the right one to win.

But this game is different, at least for me it is. If you put 1000 theories on the table, you only win 1/1000 of the prize if you happen to get the right one. The higher is the number of the theories you wager, the closer your prize will get to zero.

It's way too convenient to claim many different things and then show that one among the thousands was right and say "see? I told you!"
This is foolish! As foolish is to point out the few Nostradamus predictions that actually turned out to be right.
I'd rather consider the "ratio" between wrong theories and right theories. That's what really matters to determine the worth of someone's reasoning.

A true detective can't just point the finger to all the suspects and then say: "Hey I did point the finger to the culprit!"
That's not how it works! A detective is allowed to elaborate many theories but he must then rule out every of them except one!

That's why in the first place a detective must work on clues not on his own fantasies. It's just a waste of time. The point of the game is to reach a single truth, not listing all the possible "truths".
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Old 2010-07-01, 18:37   Link #12358
Oliver
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In fact, that was how Kinzo supposedly created his liquid assets, according to whoever was talking about him and the gold.
Indeed. But notice that it involved him a) Getting a bank official to take him seriously, b) secretly leading him to the gold. c) allowing him to pick a random bar or several for analysis.

Kinzo still did not possess any legal documents certifying the legal source of the gold, which necessitated this, and anyone trying to convert gold into liquid cash by using it as collateral would also need to do something of the sort.

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In essence, it could be, "If you help me, then I will take out a loan with the gold and give you cold hard cash." Besides, I had a feeling that that's what Battler was going to do in EP5, with the way the siblings were pushing him to be the figure head.
Well, that sort of works, if you aren't afraid people will try to get their hands on it or torture the secret out of you...

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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
This is why I put Rosa into the Beatrice faction. Either she was working with them from the beginning or she is recruited early and often. I don't believe that there are things that happen most of the time without a plan though, so I think there's a plan for her since before the game started.
Rosa is the only child of Kinzo who is so familiar with the servants that she actually offers to drink coffee with Shannon to make up for her mistrust. (!) Nobody else comes even close. Her inner narration in Ep2 actually implies she trusts them more than she does her siblings, starting with Genji and ending with Shannon, which actually gets more personal treatment than either.

So I'm pretty sure she has to be part of team Beatrice, and this is one of my arguments for Rosa being represented by Gaap.

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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
As for Beatrice owning the gold; if the group collectively is Beatrice then could it be possible that the majority of the servants already know where the gold is?
Do they trust each other that much?


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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
By the way, Oliver, while I have your attention. Do you have any ideas regarding the mirror, George, Shannon, Natsuhi, the man from 19 years ago and Moetrice? All these concepts seem linked.

- George is interested in Natsuhi's mirror and her room
- Shannon smashed the shrine mirror
- Shannon is possibly implicated by know Natsuhi's favorite season by TMF19YA.
- Beatrice claims to be weakened by the shrine mirror
- Moetrice is hurt by Natsuhi's mirror while Beatrice of Legend is not
- Moetrice is related to a woman's (Shannon?) love of Battler
- Meta-Battler decided to make Moetrice attack Natsuhi
- Natsuhi used to be a miko (Not enough fan-pics of Natsuhi in a miko fuku! ;__; )

There seems to be lots of clues here pointing to something... but what?
Well... If you pull at the "Beatrice-2 == Asumu" that I proposed a hundred posts ago or so...
  • Mirror is a symbol of truth, since it reflects everything as it is. That's actually why it's an integral part of Shinto practices and why Natsuhi is a miko, she keeps truth.
  • Whenever a mirror is broken, it means that truth is lost or distorted.
  • Whenever a mirror is handed over, it means that truth is told.
  • Natsuhi is about to give her mirror to Jessica after a particularly soft moment in Ep1, but in the noise, forgets and keeps walking around with it in her pocket for the rest of the episode. Therefore, Natsuhi was about to divulge a family secret to Jessica.
...if we go with that, here's a long shot in the dark.

Moetrice is Jessica is TMF19YA. Mirror hurts her because it contains the truth of why does she have to be Moetrice. Which is because she thinks that Rudolf is her father and Battler is therefore her brother and loving him is out of the question. That love is pushed onto Shannon who later becomes Beatrice of Legend.

The mirror, or Natsuhi's diaries, actually contain proof that Jessica is Natsuhi's daughter, which allows Jessica to love Battler but actually destroys Moetrice as it shows her true form. Breaking it for Shannon is concealing the truth from Jessica and telling her the untruth (that Battler is her brother) which allows her to interest George in herself by becoming part of team-Beatrice, that is, learning of the gold. Meta-Battler gets Moetrice to attack Natsuhi so that Moetrice can confront her for the truth.

Or alternatively, it's completely the other way around, but yes, it's Shannon and Jessica alright.

Gah, this turned out more messy than it is in my head, but who cares, I'm going to get laughed out of the thread now anyway.
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Old 2010-07-01, 19:17   Link #12359
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
It's way too convenient to claim many different things and then show that one among the thousands was right and say "see? I told you!"
This is foolish! As foolish is to point out the few Nostradamus predictions that actually turned out to be right.
Sorry, I wanted to stay out of this pointless argument on methodology, but I have to answer to that.

Solving a mystery for the honour of having been the one to say "I told you so" is just about the most pointless things I can imagine to be doing with a puzzle posed by a human to the entire world as entertainment. You evidently see it as a game that one can win. This is your prerogative, but you have to accept that not everybody does. Sure, offering a thousand guesses and then hitting with one cheapens your victory, if that victory of being the one to be correct is your goal. But please do not impose your goal on other people, they have their right to see it differently.

Maybe this is personal for me, because I get to say "I told you so" on average once every month, in different contexts, and usually, I wish that I were wrong, but turn out correct anyway. But it is definitely not what interests me in Umineko, and I am generally not a mystery fan. I'm not a true detective, or, for that matter, a detective at all, in any sense of the word -- maybe you are, if so, more power to you.

I'm a scientist and I just want to know the truth. I don't care at all how to find it, whatever works, as long as I can be sure it is.
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"The only principle that does not inhibit progress is: anything goes."
Paul K. Feyerabend, "Against Method: Outline of an Anarchistic Theory of Knowledge"

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Old 2010-07-01, 19:19   Link #12360
Kylon99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Indeed. But notice that it involved him a) Getting a bank official to take him seriously, b) secretly leading him to the gold. c) allowing him to pick a random bar or several for analysis.

Kinzo still did not possess any legal documents certifying the legal source of the gold, which necessitated this, and anyone trying to convert gold into liquid cash by using it as collateral would also need to do something of the sort.
I believe early on before Oct 5th finished, most people would be satisfied with the idea of doing this simply because they can imagine the weeks afterwards where there's plenty of time to get it done.

And in fact, it could have already been done before the conference started, so that there would be cash that was given to the survivors of the victims...

Basically we don't need to have someone save up a whole bunch of cash or sell something because:
1. this is not how rich people raise capital
2. the clue for us was that Kinzo was shown to have done this once before

Actually, the existence of the 'small golden land' would imply that it has been done, hasn't it? I mean, we can say, 'oh technically there's no evidence' again.. but this is a clue, right? But why call it a 'small golden land' and not 'some servant's savings' unless it was tied to the big Golden Land to begin with.

So... the question is... who and why?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Do they trust each other that much?
Well, when I developed my faction war theory, the 'mistrust' or rather the 'betrayal' is a function of further sub/cross factions. So technically the Beatrice faction trusts all its "real" members and maybe not the suspected sub or cross factional people. If they are discovered.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
[*]Mirror is a symbol of truth, since it reflects everything as it is. That's actually why it's an integral part of Shinto practices and why Natsuhi is a miko, she keeps truth.[*]Whenever a mirror is broken, it means that truth is lost or distorted.[*]Whenever a mirror is handed over, it means that truth is told.[*]Natsuhi is about to give her mirror to Jessica after a particularly soft moment in Ep1, but in the noise, forgets and keeps walking around with it in her pocket for the rest of the episode. Therefore, Natsuhi was about to divulge a family secret to Jessica.[/list]
Ok, I'm with you on most of this stuff but one thing disturbs me. The mirror isn't a fantasy symbol exactly, like for example the golden butterflies. There should really have been a mirror in the shrine and Natsuhi really should have a mirror too. They are real physical objects.

By the way, these mirrors are supposed to be these bronze discs that you fill with water to see your reflection right? I mean, they're not like polished glass and metal or anything; the brittle western-style mirrors we all know. It's not that easy to try and smash bronze... 8)

Like this? http://www.vam.ac.uk/images/image/47013-popup.html

This is what I get for watching Shikaotoko awoniyoshi... where they dedicated an entire episode on talking about mirrors. 8)
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