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Old 2010-07-02, 05:57   Link #12381
Kylon99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
1. Is there any particular reason why Kumasawa would be late?
2. What would convince Krauss to play along with the Anti-Krauss faction, or for that matter, the Anti-Krauss faction to play along with Krauss if he's the initiator?
3. Why is he so missing in Ep5 anyway?

If the bodies are meant to be seen in the dining hall by an unprepared witness, two other questions pop up:
[list]
4. Just when were they expected to be found, and by whom?
5. And, why weren't they?
6. ...and in both cases, why does Jessica immediately run to the shed?
I thought the Fake First Twilight plan was, after observing EP1-2, that they were to play dead from 10pm (roughly, whenever they are recruited) to 6am. That supposedly (so they thought) gave them time to be discovered as missing. Of course in EP1 the meeting finishes early and they go to sleep, not noticing specific people went missing. In either case, whether they were found or not they were to surreptitiously disappear to some pre-arranged location.

Oh and I thought the ones with the plan is the Beatrice faction, owing to how all of the siblings and cousins can be made to contribute, not just one particular side of them. And of course, the surviving Beatrice faction members are told to play everything as per normal.

So: ... ok this got kinda long...
Spoiler for Longish, again...:
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Old 2010-07-02, 07:21   Link #12382
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
Oh and I thought the ones with the plan is the Beatrice faction, owing to how all of the siblings and cousins can be made to contribute, not just one particular side of them. And of course, the surviving Beatrice faction members are told to play everything as per normal.
I'm not so sure it's always the Beatrice faction. In Ep5, the first day is full of events, and leaves little room for concentrated plotting, except for the group in the dining hall, where Battler is -- after the gold is found. If the FFT is planned during this conference, the only way it can work is if Rosa convinces the cousins to play along, she returns earlier. This FFT being conducted by the Anti-Krauss faction looks supported by the subsequent events, like the mysteriously dead/not dead Hideyoshi, which boil down to a joint and extensive Natsuhi whipping. (Who else has a reason to torture Natsuhi other than the people she successfully tricked for over a year?)

It might be that this is a complete illusion, though, and FFT is always planned by Beatrice faction beforehand, but then it is not clear why the victims are always different (if you have preparation time, isn't it better to pick the victims you're sure of?) or what's the point to it at all, since it's not necessarily connected to the epitaph letters.

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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
Ultimately the killings are meant to be found by the remaining people and reported back to Battler, if he didn't see it himself. This is supported by his low probability of not being chosen for a First Twilight, especially in EP5.
And that's the problem with FFT always being the work of Beatrice faction. The FFT and Beatrice factions need to share a lot of members, no doubt -- I just don't think the plan of solving the epitaph (which is indisputably of the Beatrice faction) and the FFT plan are supposed to mesh.

If it's the Beatrice faction, then what is the goal of FFT at all? It's very likely the goal is to influence Battler, since he stays alive for so long, but the most obvious way even a perfectly successful FFT plan can influence Battler is by inciting fear in him -- and fear was not the goal of Beatrice. It's still allowed to be an unavoidable side effect, I suppose, but what other effects can you have on a person by successfully pretending that six of his relatives and friends died in close vicinity?
  • Making him take charge and protect everyone? Piece-Battler remains on the sidelines so religiously that it's strange that anyone would want that of him.
  • Making him go detective on everybody's collective behinds and dig up some truth that cannot be simply told? That would work if the FFT victims were always the same, unless he is meant to investigate things that don't talk, like documents. He still isn't ever doing that.
  • Making him treat one of the survivors specially? That would be sort of romantic, but somehow I don't see anyone actually trying to hug him in fear even when the opportunity is perfect, like in Ep3.
  • Blackmailing him into solving the epitaph? This is not the goal either, also in red.
  • Making him remember his sin? I don't see how distracting him with apparent deaths of six people is going to help unless he actually managed to kill six people including his own mother six years ago and then forget about it.
Unless anyone can think of a different behaviour that is expected of Battler and motivates the FFT, or a very specific sin that a FFT would trigger remembering, I'd say we need to conclude that either Beatrice Faction has nothing to do with it, or that Battler is not the intended recipient. But if we take all 6 episodes currently out, there is no character that never died in a First Twilight, and that actually includes Battler himself.

I would say the goal has to be some game for no practical reason whatsoever, which is what Ep5 seems to want us to accept, but "showing the money" is a very expensive way to get a game started. Even in Ep3, nobody seems to be enjoying it, and you don't play games you don't enjoy.

So it has to be a different reason.

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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
For example, who killed Nanjo at the end of EP3? Well, who comes into Jessica's room, immediately after he is killed? Kanon. Therefore, Kanon killed Nanjo. Somehow. Even though he was declared dead in red. 8) Luckily we know now that Kanon seems to have this ability to die and still continue to run around and do things. Very handy ability, I might add.
*mentally chases away a theory where Kanon is actually Genji's 'piece' and Shannon is Kumasawa's 'piece' and scenes involving either are all imaginary*
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Old 2010-07-02, 07:25   Link #12383
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...I suppose it could be different each time, actually.

For episode 1, since they were killed in the dining room (probably) it wouldn't be too hard for, say, Shannon or Kumasawa or whoever to slip drugs into their tea and then have them beaten to death with the lead piping. Fake first twilight plan is possible, but then they were intending to be found in the dining room.

For episode 2, since the six were killed in the chapel, they obviously had to be lured out in some way. Fake twilight murders seems very likely here.

For episode 3, it isn't really necessary. The killer could've just shot the victims where they were... except for Kanon. If personality death is allowed, this one's pretty simple (although if personality death is allowed, it begs the question of why Beatrice never said "Kanon is dead" for the first episode).

For episode 4... rather hard to say. Everything is a bit of a mess.
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Old 2010-07-02, 08:16   Link #12384
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
But if we take all 6 episodes currently out, there is no character that never died in a First Twilight, and that actually includes Battler himself.
Uhhhhhhhhhh, Nanjo?
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Old 2010-07-02, 08:45   Link #12385
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Logically, I guess the culprit wants someone to "confirm" the deaths of all those killed.

Question - in ep 3, when the first twilight victims are being found, where in the HELL is Kyrie? Rosa also seems to be absent...
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Old 2010-07-02, 08:50   Link #12386
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Uhhhhhhhhhh, Nanjo?
That's it. It's all for Nanjo, there is no more doubt! Unless he's the first to die in Ep7.

Seriously, yes, I made a mistake, but considering he's so remarkably passive, no way.

But I thought of a slightly different reason for Battler specifically, which produces a better picture.

FFT is a detective game to motivate Battler to find a 19th person "Beatrice", which will be presented to him. This was supposed to be an intensely personal experience for the two of them, related to the sin, and worth actually pulling every available string for. Either Jessica or Shannon are that Beatrice. Nobody is having fun even in Ep3, because they know things have gone horribly wrong and the game turned into real murder.

And they have gone horribly wrong because Maria's Beatrice is someone else, who starts a completely unrelated game at the same moment. The intellectual puzzle game of the gold, with letters prepared well beforehand. Which would work, if allowed to play out without the FFT, just like the FFT might have worked if allowed to play out without the letters.

Whether the planners were aware of each other and the conflict is not clear, since they probably overlap, unless Kanon managed to cheat everyone. The interference pattern between the two allows the real murderer to actually kill the FT victims...
...and then the two overlapping groups go against each other, now sure that someone from the other one is the murderer.
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Old 2010-07-02, 09:25   Link #12387
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By the way: After remembering the scene with Battler running into the dining room with a candlestick, I'm beginning to think the weapons are based to some extent on Cluedo/ Clue. I mean, we know handguns, ropes (garroting deaths, Kumasawa/ Gohda), candlesticks, some kind of knife and probably a melee weapon are involved somehow. More of an Easter egg type thing than a clue though.
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Old 2010-07-02, 11:06   Link #12388
Oliver
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*facedesks repeatedly once he gets to the fourth page of the story*

I think this may well be relevant, ladies and gentlemen, if only because I don't believe in coincidences like these.

Clayton Rawson, "From Another World" (short story)

Quote:
Behind me, Elinor’s whisper, a tense thread of sound, said, “Lights,” as she clicked the switch by the door. The glow from the ceiling fixture overhead banished both the darkness and the spectre—but what remained was almost as unlikely. A chair lay overturned on the carpet, next to a small table that stood in the centre of the room. In a second chair, slumped forward with her head resting on the tabletop, was the body of a woman.
She was young, dark-haired, rather good-looking, and had an excellent figure. This latter fact was instantly apparent because—and I had to look twice before I could believe what I saw—she wore a brief, skintight, one-piece bathing suit. Nothing else.
Elinor’s eyes were still on the sprawled shape on the floor. “Father. He’s—dead?”
Garrett nodded slowly and stood up.
I heard the quick intake of her breath but she made no other sound. Then Garrett strode quickly across to the woman at the table.
“Unconscious,” he said after a moment. “Apparently a blow on the head—but she’s beginning to come out of it.” He looked again at the knife on the floor. “We’ll have to call the police.”
I hardly heard him. I was wondering why the room was so bare. The hall outside and the living room that opened off it were furnished with the stiff, formal ostentation of the overly rich. But Drake’s study, by contrast, was as sparsely furnished as a cell in a Trappist monastery. Except for the desk, the small table, the two chairs, and a three-leaf folding screen that stood in one corner, it contained no other furniture. There were no pictures on the walls, no papers, and although there were shelves for them, no books. There wasn’t even a blotter or pen on the desk top. Nothing but the phone, desk lamp and, strangely enough, a roll of gummed paper tape.
And yes, the tape is used exactly for what you think.
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Old 2010-07-02, 11:27   Link #12389
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I'm not familiar with Rawson, so I looked him up. He writes mystery stories about stage magicians. Gee, I wonder...
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Old 2010-07-02, 11:37   Link #12390
Oliver
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I'm not familiar with Rawson, so I looked him up. He writes mystery stories about stage magicians. Gee, I wonder...
That was how I found this story -- I was looking for critical treatments of locked room theory, and he was mentioned. On further research he appeared highly promising. That was the absolutely only story I found on the net, and it immediately raised flags.

Maybe someone with paper library access can turn up more.

Here's the full text of this particular story for reference, pardon the lost formatting: http://tinypaste.com/d49cf
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Old 2010-07-02, 12:10   Link #12391
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Having checked the public libraries of my current residence, my hometown, and the Dallas Public Library, only one has a book by Clayton Rawson, and it's one of his magic books for children.

In fact, even the New York Public Library, to which I once had much readier access, only has two of his fiction works. Amazon has a much better selection. If I still lived closer to Dallas I could also rummage around at Half Price Books, which almost always has its share of obscure used books.

So unless you happen to live near some sort of dedicated mystery library, Mr. Rawson's books seem quite difficult to find. Which would make you wonder how ryukishi got his hands on any of them... but maybe he's more popular in Japan. Or maybe Tokyo has a mystery novel library.

EDIT: Houson, San Antonio, and Los Angeles have mystery book stores. Bit far away for me though.
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Old 2010-07-02, 12:22   Link #12392
Oliver
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So unless you happen to live near some sort of dedicated mystery library, Mr. Rawson's books seem quite difficult to find. Which would make you wonder how ryukishi got his hands on any of them... but maybe he's more popular in Japan. Or maybe Tokyo has a mystery novel library.
He does have a Japanese Wikipedia page so at least he's not completely unknown over there. Googling for the name in katakana as per Wikipedia produces only 22400 results or so.

Further digging seems to suggest someone in Japan (2ch) might have noticed the reference, at least, his name is mentioned together with Umineko a few times, but alas, I can't actually read the context in which they are mentioned.

There is a chance it could be a coincidence... but that would be one of the freakiest in my practice.

EDIT: Translations into Japanese definitely exist.
EDIT EDIT: Actually, lots of, and he may actually be better remembered over there than in the English-speaking world, since I don't see such a reference page in English anywhere.
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Old 2010-07-02, 12:57   Link #12393
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There's a certain irony in a Japanese author writing an homage to western-style mysteries and taking inspiration from an American author whose works an American can find no ready access to.
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Old 2010-07-02, 14:47   Link #12394
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Krauss seems to be the guy who came up with plan "Hey, let's have people fake their deaths." Nanjo never should be in the first twilight. His job is to go up to the bodies and then turnaround saying, "They're dead, Jim."
Were the letters with the safety deposit key said to be written by the same person who wrote Maria's letters?
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Old 2010-07-02, 15:05   Link #12395
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
Krauss seems to be the guy who came up with plan "Hey, let's have people fake their deaths."
And how does that help him, in particular?

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Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
Nanjo never should be in the first twilight. His job is to go up to the bodies and then turnaround saying, "They're dead, Jim."
Which is why killing him the very first thing would be a very wise move.

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Were the letters with the safety deposit key said to be written by the same person who wrote Maria's letters?
They were written by the same person who wrote in Maria's diary/grimoire. It is never stated that letters received during the game itself match anyone's handwriting at all, including that.
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Old 2010-07-02, 15:06   Link #12396
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
In Ep1 in particular, the shed looks like the perfect hiding place for the living victims while someone worries where the bodies have gone after seeing the bloody dining hall. But something has to have gone wrong, things happen out of order -- bodies are found in the shed first, and Kumasawa, who bursts in reporting blood in the dining hall, is spectacularly late.
If the shed (as a hiding place) wasn't meant to be discovered, then why is there that big, obvious magic circle on it? The one that would have to have been drawn before it started raining?

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There's a certain irony in a Japanese author writing an homage to western-style mysteries and taking inspiration from an American author whose works an American can find no ready access to.
It's clearly not just Agatha Christie he's taken plot elements from, then... perhaps Umineko is entirely made up of literary references?

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Were the letters with the safety deposit key said to be written by the same person who wrote Maria's letters?
Yes. Maria's Beatrice wrote the message bottles, (presumably) most of the twilight letters, the contract in Maria's diary, and the safety deposit letters.

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They were written by the same person who wrote in Maria's diary/grimoire. It is never stated that letters received during the game itself match anyone's handwriting at all, including that.
We do, however, know that she wrote the message bottles thanks to Ange's reaction upon seeing them.
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Old 2010-07-02, 15:11   Link #12397
Oliver
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If the shed (as a hiding place) wasn't meant to be discovered, then why is there that big, obvious magic circle on it? The one that would have to have been drawn before it started raining?
The paint is not water soluble.
Otherwise there would be no sense whatsoever for Genji to immediately offer to paint over it, it would just get washed off by the rain.

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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
It's clearly not just Agatha Christie he's taken plot elements from, then... perhaps Umineko is entirely made up of literary references?
Every language is in fact built on numerous references, this is nothing unusual. Whether references are in fact useful for making sense of it is an open question, but I very much suspect they are in case of Clayton Rawson. If only his books weren't such a pain to get around here... or apparently, anywhere...

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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
Yes. Maria's Beatrice wrote the message bottles, presumably most of the twilight letters, the contract in Maria's diary, and the safety deposit letters.
There is nothing confirming she wrote any of the twilight letters in particular. Message bottles, contract, safety deposit letters, but twilight letters are never compared, Ange doesn't have them to compare, and nobody on the island compares them with anything either.

If, in fact, anyone got the idea that Maria's diary may contain writing by Beatrice, I expect that past the first twilight she'd be burned as a witch.
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Old 2010-07-02, 15:12   Link #12398
Kylon99
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If the FFT is planned during this conference, the only way it can work is if Rosa convinces the cousins to play along, she returns earlier. This FFT being conducted by the Anti-Krauss faction looks supported by the subsequent events, like the mysteriously dead/not dead Hideyoshi, which boil down to a joint and extensive Natsuhi whipping. (Who else has a reason to torture Natsuhi other than the people she successfully tricked for over a year?)
Maybe in this particular episode the siblings and Battler have been let in on the plot as well. We only see Natsuhi's surprised reaction and no real thoughts from anyone else. At the very least if Rosa had always been in on the plan then in EP5, Battler definitely has knowledge of the FFT. But they don't necessarily need to have been brought into the plan from the outset. It could be that Hideyoshi and Eva were brought in on the plan afterwards at the time of the Second Twilight.

We do have an example from EP2 where people kept trying to fake murders (Nanjo and Kumasawa by Kanon) despite things already going horribly wrong.

But definitely the Fake First Twilight plays out in many different ways as there are episodes. But it looks like the plan was set prior to the start of the gameboard since it tries to express itself in nearly all episodes. Except EP4.


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It might be that this is a complete illusion, though, and FFT is always planned by Beatrice faction beforehand, but then it is not clear why the victims are always different (if you have preparation time, isn't it better to pick the victims you're sure of?) or what's the point to it at all, since it's not necessarily connected to the epitaph letters.
Ok.. using Lack-Of-Sleep-Reasoning, therefore the randomness somehow has inherent value to the executors of the FFT. We do have mention about how this is the 'Devil's Roulette' by Kinzo (and Beatrice, I think.) There wouldn't be comparisons to a roulette in the fantasy scenes if there were always the same 6 that died.

The fantasy explanation is that the roulette somehow gives birth to chance and chance gives birth to magic. Kinzo, though has stacked the game with a bunch of other victims to increase his chance of surviving; that is his fantasy goal. What could this mean in reality?

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And that's the problem with FFT always being the work of Beatrice faction. The FFT and Beatrice factions need to share a lot of members, no doubt -- I just don't think the plan of solving the epitaph (which is indisputably of the Beatrice faction) and the FFT plan are supposed to mesh.

If it's the Beatrice faction, then what is the goal of FFT at all? It's very likely the goal is to influence Battler, since he stays alive for so long, but the most obvious way even a perfectly successful FFT plan can influence Battler is by inciting fear in him -- and fear was not the goal of Beatrice. It's still allowed to be an unavoidable side effect, I suppose, but what other effects can you have on a person by successfully pretending that six of his relatives and friends died in close vicinity?
However, we have a commonality between the FFT and the Epitaph, of which the first letter, which we believe to have been prepared by the Beatrice faction, urges the solution to. In the Epitaph, one of the four treasures at the end was, "the resurrection of the souls of all the dead." If you don't believe resurrection is possible in reality, then the only way this can happen is if people play dead and then stop playing dead later.

In addition the treasure before this one was: "all the gold from the Golden Land." So, the gold itself is also part of the prize.

I believe this unites these key elements:
- Kinzo
- Kinzo's Epitaph
- The Gold
- Beatrice faction (majority of the servants + Rosa + Nanjo + either/both George and Jessica)
- First Beatrice letter
- First Twilight Fakery
- Battler's sin
- a lost love (the third treasure)
- to put the witch to sleep (the fourth treasure)

I'm thinking it's likely now the lost love refers to at least the cousins, but possibly something to do with Battler, and his sin. The lost refers to it having been lost long ago, rather than having been killed during the murders, since the plan was to fake the deaths to begin with...

I'm also thinking the idea of putting the witch to sleep is congruent with Beatrice's true objective of Battler killing her. In that way put her personality or legend or whatnot to sleep forever.

Also, all these elements seem to have no relation to the real murders, except of course by setting up a situation for the real murders to have happened in a easy way.

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Making him remember his sin? I don't see how distracting him with apparent deaths of six people is going to help unless he actually managed to kill six people including his own mother six years ago and then forget about it.[/list]
This is what we are told Beatrice wants Battler to do. If the fantasy Beatrice(ses) represent the Beatrice faction then that's what they want him to do too. How can losing the people you love make you remember your sin? Well, if you lose people maybe you will start regretting having taken them for granted. Maybe his disappearance for 6 years made someone feel like they were taken for granted.

We also know Battler's sin causes everyone to die. And we've guessed that it's an indirect death; Battler didn't kill nor was it directly revenge against him but rather his sin starts a chain of unavoidable events.


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Unless anyone can think of a different behaviour that is expected of Battler and motivates the FFT, or a very specific sin that a FFT would trigger remembering, I'd say we need to conclude that either Beatrice Faction has nothing to do with it, or that Battler is not the intended recipient. But if we take all 6 episodes currently out, there is no character that never died in a First Twilight, and that actually includes Battler himself.
Battler not only survives the First Twilight, he survives every twilight. Except the 10th, of course. I calculated the odds of this in one of the other threads, it's astronomically low. Astronomically low in a detective novel must indicate he survives on purpose, using our new methodology. 8)

http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=1913
(Look for the chance for any one person to survive all episodes 1-5. 1.31%)

Also, check out: 3.46% Probability of not choosing any two people (EDIT: for FIrst Twilight) in all 5 games


Anyways, I'm not sure my Lack-Of-Sleep-Reasoning is working fully right now as I am not in any lack of sleep. I have to put my brain in a Zen-like state, which is why I actually rewrote some of this message several times to par it down to something even more simple. Maybe you guys can simplify it even further...
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Old 2010-07-02, 15:14   Link #12399
Smeckledorf
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And how does that help him, in particular?
Making Kinzo seem to be murdered and not just a corpse floating around the mansion for a year or so to cover up Krauss' embezzling sounds good.


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Which is why killing him the very first thing would be a very wise move.
Not if you want to convince people that the victims are actually dead. Credibility my friend, a great tool.


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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
They were written by the same person who wrote in Maria's diary/grimoire. It is never stated that letters received during the game itself match anyone's handwriting at all, including that.
By Maria's letter, I meant the one that described the twilights. The one where she said she is probably dead at the time that they read it. I don't care about the letters in game for this point. My point would be the money was paid out in a manor to stop someone from know about it and this same person knew about the murders. This person was desperate or optimistic. Either way, I think this person did not know about any set up explosives.

I still maintain that Kinzo died before the epitaph and portraits were put up. It makes a fake Beatrice showing up easier to pull off. If Shanon is Beatrice then the epitaph makes perfect sense if Battler solves it.
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Old 2010-07-02, 15:20   Link #12400
Oliver
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Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
Making Kinzo seem to be murdered and not just a corpse floating around the mansion for a year or so to cover up Krauss' embezzling sounds good.
That particularly fails if the corpse exists. It is possible to tell whether it was freshly murdered or not if it's still possible to identify it as Kinzo -- not on the island, but making Kinzo seem murdered for people on the island and missing for everyone else is not in Krauss' interest. Krauss' only practical chance is to burn it to ashes and cast them into the wind, this is best done if nobody dies and nobody knows about it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
Not if you want to convince people that the victims are actually dead. Credibility my friend, a great tool.
Notice that I didn't say for whom.
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