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Old 2010-07-19, 16:00   Link #14201
Linkin Battler
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DgBarca View Post
Sorry to go off-topic but...
I have been reading EP3 and...why is nobody doing a Beatrice-3 theory ?
Because...it's weird, the Beatrice at the beginning of the EP and the one in Rosa's flashback are...totally not the same.
Let's call the Beatrice at the beginning of EP3 Beato-3.

Beatrice-2 : In Kuwadorian.
Beatrice-3 : In Kuwadorian.

Beatrice-2 : This is the world of 1967.
Beatrice-3 : ??????. If we assume that it was the beginning of Beatrice, it would be 1000 years ago...But it's nearly impossible that Kuwadorian and Kumasawa/Virgila were here 1000 years ago.

Beatrice-2 : Calls Kinzo "Father".
Beatrice-3 : Calls Kinzo "Grandfather".

Beatrice-2 : Beatrice=Herself.
Beatrice-3 : Beatrice=Virgilia/Kumasawa.

Beatrice-2 : Cannot use magic.
Beatrice-3 : Will learn magic.

Before the death of Beatrice-2, she gave birth to a Beatrice-3. She would be 19 years old. This Beatrice-3 could also be the person in the EP7 portrait.

Also, the presence of Kumasawa would means that she knows nearly everything, and it's not weird at all because of the TIPS (Oh I wrote RIP first, sorry Kumasawa).

But it would mean that she is a "17th person" and we will need a theory to lower the number of people (Shkanon is not the only thing in the world). Or maybe she is someone on the island in disguise.

I've never seen something about this so...I try.
I created a theory involving Beatrice-3 and everything makes sense. You find it in my signature. If you'd like to, read it and tell me your opinions
And... since EP3moeBeato calls someone (probably Kinzo) grandfather and rosaBeatrice calls it Father she is probably her son and the game master (who is told by Zepar and Furfur to be 19 and as a matter of fact rosaBeatrice died 19 years ago, so it is possible for her to have given birth to a daughter that did not lived in Kuwadorian, since it was not a secure place anymore after rosaBeatrice's death)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DgBarca View Post
Yeah, I give up on this one, The sin I am now demanding that you remember is not between Ushiromiya Battler and Beatrice.
In that moment Beatrice did not want to reveal anything (in my theory because she started to doubt whether he was really the Battler she met six years ago), maybe she was voluntarily referring to the other Battler (which is the one killed by Natsuhi), even though she did not know which was in front of her, the real Battler or the other Battler. That is because she thaught that the Battler she had met six years ago was Asumu's son, but then she understand she is wrong (after Ange's death scene). And as it regard the "Six years ago FOR ME, no person CALLED Beatrice existed.", it is a hint to pony theory. No one called Beatrice existed for him since the one she met was called Shannon, even though it was not Shannon, but Beatrice. Always in my opinion. Sorry, but I did not explain it well xD You find everything in my theory post if you're interested, even though I have to update it >_>
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Last edited by Linkin Battler; 2010-07-19 at 16:14.
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Old 2010-07-19, 16:00   Link #14202
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
I think Jan Poo is just talking about the perspective of the 1998 people.. and not us. We *know* there are murders.
Trust me he's not. He doesn't think there has to be any murders at all. The bomb is the best murder method there is to him.
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Old 2010-07-19, 16:09   Link #14203
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
"Turning the chessboard around" is derived from the concept of Game Theory. In a game of chess (just as an example), there are a clearly defined set of rules that one has to follow in order to achieve the goal of victory. In order for Game Theory to work at all, you have to know two things:

1. Your opponent's goal
2. Rules/parameters of the game


I think it's safe to assume that we know Ryukishi's goal. He wants to write an intriguing mystery tale that will be difficult to solve. He thing we do not know, though, is the ruleset.

How can you win a game of chess if you don't know how to advance the pieces and our opponent does? This is sort of where we are right now. We do not know to what extent Ryukishi is willing to go to write an interesting mystery.

Does he follow the Knox Decalogue?
Does he follow the Van Dine Commandments?
Does Ryukishi even have a clear answer to his own riddles?

We might know some of the answers to the questions, but we do not know with certainty what guidelines he follows when he writes his novels.

I think it would be better to analyze the visual novel itself without questioning the author's choices. Sure, it could narrow down some choices, but it is not a good reason to exclude Shkanon if there is no direct evidence against it in the visual novels.
Among the many hints given by Ryukishi, a significant hint is Higurashi, why bother blatantly adding characters that are similar to his earlier work if not to provide a means of understanding the "game".

There is also the issue with thinking that this is ONLY about the mystery of Rokkenmanji, if as a reader you are only looking at the tale as a means to solve the answer, you are little different than Erika who only is looking for a puzzle to shatter.

A simple truth is that Ryukishi will reveal the whole mystery in the end, but if all you are looking for is one answer to the entire mystery then you are missing the "trip there".
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Old 2010-07-19, 16:21   Link #14204
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Trust me he's not. He doesn't think there has to be any murders at all. The bomb is the best murder method there is to him.
Actually I believe his point is more "why would anyone bother to commit a murder if a bomb was just going to kill people anyway?" Obviously this is a suggestion that the murderer, if there was one, didn't know about the bomb.

Of course, as far as anyone in 1998 knows, there weren't any murders. Only non-credible people think otherwise, and the only person who would know (Eva) refused to ever talk about it.
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Old 2010-07-19, 16:25   Link #14205
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Actually I believe his point is more "why would anyone bother to commit a murder if a bomb was just going to kill people anyway?" Obviously this is a suggestion that the murderer, if there was one, didn't know about the bomb.

Of course, as far as anyone in 1998 knows, there weren't any murders. Only non-credible people think otherwise, and the only person who would know (Eva) refused to ever talk about it.
Yes he made that point too, but he doesn't really act like he believes that the murders really did happen. Or else why would he say nothing in 1998 suggests it? It seems to me that he's making a point that says none of it really matters.
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Old 2010-07-19, 17:03   Link #14206
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Actually... it's make sense if ep1 and ep2 are the message bottles, while ep3 is Hachijo's attempt to write a similar story only with Eva as the culprit (like the popular theory going around).

Perhaps the second message bottle ended with Battler's surrender to Beatrice, and that was meant to be all there was to it?
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Old 2010-07-19, 17:06   Link #14207
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
"Turning the chessboard around" is derived from the concept of Game Theory. In a game of chess (just as an example), there are a clearly defined set of rules that one has to follow in order to achieve the goal of victory. In order for Game Theory to work at all, you have to know two things:

1. Your opponent's goal
2. Rules/parameters of the game


I think it's safe to assume that we know Ryukishi's goal. He wants to write an intriguing mystery tale that will be difficult to solve. He thing we do not know, though, is the ruleset.

How can you win a game of chess if you don't know how to advance the pieces and our opponent does? This is sort of where we are right now. We do not know to what extent Ryukishi is willing to go to write an interesting mystery.

Does he follow the Knox Decalogue?
Does he follow the Van Dine Commandments?
Does Ryukishi even have a clear answer to his own riddles?

We might know some of the answers to the questions, but we do not know with certainty what guidelines he follows when he writes his novels.

I think it would be better to analyze the visual novel itself without questioning the author's choices. Sure, it could narrow down some choices, but it is not a good reason to exclude Shkanon if there is no direct evidence against it in the visual novels.
I think this is what he meant by love, at least its one of those points in the general idea. In which, we don't need to rely on a set of rules, instead we must broaden our thinking and look at the riddle from different angles.
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Old 2010-07-19, 17:12   Link #14208
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Just a question. Does anyone remember exactly how long the family conference was supposed to last?
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Old 2010-07-19, 17:14   Link #14209
Judoh
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Originally Posted by musouka View Post
Just a question. Does anyone remember exactly how long the family conference was supposed to last?
It takes place on the first weekend of October. I'd imagine they consider it business weekend so just two days.

However George says something a long the lines of that he's prepared everything back home so he can be gone for 3 days due to the Typhoon.
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Old 2010-07-19, 17:15   Link #14210
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I thought it was meant to be a one- day stay.
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Old 2010-07-19, 17:16   Link #14211
musouka
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ErenselTheJester View Post
I think it was meant to be a one- day stay, then they leave the next day after.
So they were supposed to spend one nights or two on the island? I thought it was said somewhere that it was only supposed to be one. If that's the case, then it changes a lot of things about the bomb.
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Old 2010-07-19, 17:19   Link #14212
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by musouka View Post
Just a question. Does anyone remember exactly how long the family conference was supposed to last?
It is never stated explicitly but:
  • It starts Saturday morning.
  • George would expect to go to work on Monday if it weren't for the typhoon.

From that it's pretty clear that it's a single-sleepover weekend event where you arrive Saturday morning and come back home Sunday evening. I expect that it is traditionally held on the first weekend of October.

Unless you're referring to conversations, which are also called "conference" in the text.
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Old 2010-07-19, 17:47   Link #14213
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Kawabata's boat was supposed to arrive at noon on Sunday. I believe that's mentioned a time or two. So they aren't staying very long on Sunday at all.
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Old 2010-07-19, 17:56   Link #14214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Kawabata's boat was supposed to arrive at noon on Sunday. I believe that's mentioned a time or two. So they aren't staying very long on Sunday at all.
When exactly did the family find out that the typhoon was definitely going to keep them on the island until Monday? That's the absolute earliest any kind of timed mechanism could have been set up. If it's late enough on Saturday that we can start pinning people's movements down, we might be able to rule out a lot of suspects.
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Old 2010-07-19, 18:03   Link #14215
musouka
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Kawabata's boat was supposed to arrive at noon on Sunday. I believe that's mentioned a time or two. So they aren't staying very long on Sunday at all.
So, basically, if we are to assume that the bomb is man made and not something natural like a volcano (lol) and therefore is set to go off at a specific time each game...

It is entirely dependent upon a few things.

One, if the entire family is meant to perish, then it is reliant on something forcing them to stay longer than they were planning. Yes, the weather tends to get bad this time of year, but if you're going to the trouble of planting a high level of explosives on the island to kill off this family, you're going to rely on a little bit more than "maybe the weather will be so bad they can't come back".

Let's break down this line of thought a little.

In order to make the plan work, you would have to do more than just gamble on the weather. You would have to do three things, to be exact.

- Make sure that the boatman is unable to pick them up at the appointed time. (Also make sure that anyone else that might know is equally unable to pick them up.)
- After the boatman is unable to pick them up, make sure the outside lines are cut so that they can't arrange different transportation on their own end. This might have been actually done.
- Make sure that there are no boats or modes of transportation for them to leave the island themselves. Even one person getting off the island means that they might be able to arrange to have the others picked up before the bomb explodes.

Now, it's sort of interesting, because the LAST thing you want to do in this situation is start murdering people. Creating even the illusion of murder means people are going to be trying to get off the island if they can think of a way to do so. The only reason I can think of for creating the illusion of murder is to hide the things you've done like cutting the lines and sabotaging boats. (Because a murderer automatically has a reason to do things like that. A random person? Significantly less so.)

Another thing to consider is that the family dying WAS an accident, and the original targets were just those that live on the island.

I think there are a few things that imply that the other people on the island were not originally supposed to be targets of the bomb. One is the mysterious letter that Ange gets. Correct me if I'm wrong, but all of the letters were addressed to actual people that were on the island, right?

Provided that everyone was able to leave the island before the bomb exploded, as would have originally been the plan, everyone would have gotten a letter addressed to them a few days later with a significant amount of money waiting for them.

I find that line of thought sort of interesting, but I can't quite figure out what it means.
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Old 2010-07-19, 18:15   Link #14216
Oliver
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Originally Posted by musouka View Post
Another thing to consider is that the family dying WAS an accident, and the original targets were just those that live on the island.
Consider also that the final explosion actually changes the terrain in at least a 100-150m radius. That is, Kawabata can't find the wharf when he is back.

Which makes me think that the explosion is actually multistaged, a single, smaller explosion that is calculated to look like an accident is only meant to demolish the mansion itself, or even less, and probably nothing else. It inevitably but unexpectedly triggers a different disaster (which can be an explosion in turn, like the hypothetical underground military stockpile, or can be volcanic in nature, though that seems a bit less likely) which actually changes terrain. Rosa in Ep2 actually escapes the first by being in the chapel, but dies from the second.

There's actually a theory of Krauss bomber to account for this -- a group suicide.
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Old 2010-07-19, 18:20   Link #14217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Consider also that the final explosion actually changes the terrain in at least a 100-150m radius. That is, Kawabata can't find the wharf when he is back.

Which makes me think that the explosion is actually multistaged, a single, smaller explosion that is calculated to look like an accident is only meant to demolish the mansion itself, or even less, and probably nothing else. It inevitably but unexpectedly triggers a different disaster (which can be an explosion in turn, like the hypothetical underground military stockpile, or can be volcanic in nature, though that seems a bit less likely) which actually changes terrain. Rosa in Ep2 actually escapes the first by being in the chapel, but dies from the second.

There's actually a theory of Krauss bomber to account for this -- a group suicide.
You didn't mention that the whole island is covered with trees, and the Mansion exploding would make some trees to burn...and then making the whole island an hellfire.
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Old 2010-07-19, 18:31   Link #14218
Oliver
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Originally Posted by DgBarca View Post
You didn't mention that the whole island is covered with trees, and the Mansion exploding would make some trees to burn...and then making the whole island an hellfire.
We don't know exactly why the wharf was missing. The map from the anime appears to show elevation changes, which a forest fire cannot account for. Whether we can trust the anime map at all is an open question.

So the secondary disaster can be a large fire, a volcano explosion, an actual explosives store explosion, or even a landslide, and we don't really have enough information to conclude which it was.

The best way to create the primary explosion that I can think of is blowing up tanks of gas stocked up for the winter, which would tear the mansion itself apart nicely, especially if done properly.
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Old 2010-07-19, 18:32   Link #14219
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I just want to clarify where this theory of a bomb has come from? I *get* it, but I'm not understanding what the basis was for this theory to come about? Was there any reference to a bomb-like thing happening in the VN's that I've just missed?
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Old 2010-07-19, 18:34   Link #14220
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If there is a raging forest fire, it'd explain why the only viable source of cover is Kuwadorian, I guess.

Forgotten explosive stockpile/ unexploded bombs also work, I guess.

Hey... so this means that people WERE actually killed by a small bomb!

EDIT: Well, it's difficult to think of another reason why all of the buildings would be wiped off the map by the time Ange visits in 1998...
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