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Old 2010-08-02, 08:53   Link #15101
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
But in that case how could you make a clear connection between that gold and the yamashita gold? it would be impossible to determine the origin of that gold.
Until the modern techniques for identifying the source based on radioactive tracer elements were developed. I can't determine when this happened though yet, but the safest bet so far is 1996.

EDIT: Found a paper from 1971 describing the technique, probably one of the first ones.
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Old 2010-08-02, 08:54   Link #15102
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Regardless of where Kinzo got the gold, it's stamped with the Ushiromiya crest. If the crest predated Kinzo's succession, it had to have been resmelted and stamped. (Unless he got the crest from Beatrice, in which case, that narrows down the origins of the gold quite a bit.) Yamashita's gold came from many, many sources all over Asia, and so there could 10kg ingots, there could be anything. No one knows.

I think the main connections is simply that Kinzo acquired his gold after the war. If he was perhaps part of the organization that was involved in smuggling the gold out, he might have known where some of it was hidden, and gone and dug it up after the war. Or the government might hid some of it on the Japanese islands as well as on the Philippines, but since most of the generals in charge of the secreting away of the gold were killed in action or executed for war crimes, no one else ever found out.

In that way, it works out quite neatly as a solution for the gold's origin. That doesn't mean it's true though.

Incidentally, the secret organization was allegedly called "Kin no yori" (Golden Lily). I
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Old 2010-08-02, 11:00   Link #15103
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It's not because the gold exists now, that it always did...

As for the "world peace" I think there's very little point in thinking about that now. Even if Ange wasn't shot the "gold" wouldn't have been found. Ange wasn't even looking for it anyway. It's a random bit of information spoken at the very end of the sixth game, bit late of an information if it was so important. Okonogi just feels like the kind of guy who find himself excuses when doing amoral stuff. It could simply refer that Ange's research about the truth will lead her to the truth about things that are completely unrelated to Rokkenjima but would, for instance, find proof of relation between corporate, yakuzas and the governement.
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Old 2010-08-02, 11:36   Link #15104
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I'm not seeing any point in convincing someone of something when you're both just going to die anyway. You basically wind up in the crazy/delusional/psychopath motive mode there, unless the person isn't responsible for the explosion and has no idea it's coming. Then it's just silly.
Well, if you're calling all people who believe in an afterlife crazy, I'm going to have to disagree with you there.
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Old 2010-08-02, 11:41   Link #15105
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Well, if you're calling all people who believe in an afterlife crazy, I'm going to have to disagree with you there.
Well, we have a mystery here, not some fairy-tail or religious book. Accepting afterlife as a possible part of culprit's motive is a taboo for mysteries. Ryuu told us in ep5, that the game is 'solvable'. It means that an average mystery-lover would be able to have a strict logical way of thinking, which will lead him to the desired conclusion. People are free to believe in god, azathoth, buddha and flying macaroni monster, but these beliefs, as well as using this an a mystery novel, do not really differ from Purupuru drug and Purupuru devices. It's absolutely crazy.

It's not listed in Knox's, it's not listed in Dine's, but trust me, a good mystery which is fair and solvable for all readers, will never have a culprit who's delusional, crazy and suicidal.
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Old 2010-08-02, 11:48   Link #15106
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Originally Posted by LaplaceNoMa View Post
Well, we have a mystery here, not some fairy-tail or religious book. Accepting afterlife as a possible part of culprit's motive is a taboo for mysteries. Ryuu told us in ep5, that the game is 'solvable'. It means that an average mystery-lover would be able to have a strict logical way of thinking, which will lead him to the desired conclusion. People are free to believe in god, azathoth, buddha and flying macaroni monster, but these beliefs, as well as using this an a mystery novel, do not really differ from Purupuru drug and Purupuru devices. It's absolutely crazy.

It's not listed in Knox's, it's not listed in Dine's, but trust me, a good mystery which is fair and solvable for all readers, will never have a culprit who's delusional, crazy and suicidal.
If you think that, you haven't been paying much attention to the actual game. It's a mystery, but it's definitely not a standard mystery. Standard mysteries are not allowed to have overt depictions of magic. At all.

Also, you say that such a thing would make a mystery unsolvable for readers, but I've just proposed this solution. How could I have thought of this if the game was unsolvable?

Even if the culprit has a different world-view than most of us, it is, I think, a ruthlessly logical one. This isn't a crazy person. You can't prove her beliefs wrong by the very nature of those beliefs. And if she's young and naive and has been taught this religion since long ago, it's no surprise that she doesn't realize some of the implications of those beliefs.
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Old 2010-08-02, 11:56   Link #15107
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Well, I actually share Renall's point of view about that. I don't really see that 'you've proposed a solution'. As well as Renall and some other people, I can accept the possibility of Shkannon as some minor part in the whole mystery, like Kinzo's death at the beginning of each game. Making Shkannontrice the main mastermind does not make any sense no matter how you look at it. It doesn't explain anything about 07151129, Krauss's failed business, Rosa's co-signed debt, Hideyoshi's company stock catastophe, Rudolf's problems with USA corporate giant, battler's real mother, the child from 19 years ago, the origin of the gold... Well, I can continue, but long story short: it does not explain any important parts of the mystery. Even if Battler's sin is somehow related to Shkannontrice... then what? Do you really think that 'sin' is the core of the whole Rokkenjima incident? Well then, please explain its connections to at least those points I've stated above. These points are what really is important, much more important than Battler's sin and the 24:00 bomb explosion.

What I and probably Renall are trying to say for a while is not that we don't accept the idea of Shkannon. We're saying that if that's really the main theme of the whole mystery, than Ryukishi wasn't fair, even if it's 'not a standard mystery'. And, well, we'll feel quite betrayed.
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Old 2010-08-02, 12:04   Link #15108
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Originally Posted by LaplaceNoMa View Post
it does not explain any important parts of the mystery
You do not know if any of these are important part of the mystery.

Actually most things you said aren't even mysteries. Rudolph violated copyrights and got sued. No mystery.

Yet we know in red that Battler's sin is the reason that ultimately everyone dies. A real mystery.


That said, I'm not sure I like the idea of an afterlife killer either. At the very least, if that was the case I doubt Battler would apologize to her. She'd be the one who should apologize.

Concerning Battler's sin. When he finally discovers the truth in arc 5, he promises that he would never again lose the truth. I'm really tempted to assume... it implies that Battler knew the truth, and forgetting it was likely his sin. If we take arc 6's whole "Beato in Battler's shoes" then it makes even more sense.
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Old 2010-08-02, 12:07   Link #15109
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Originally Posted by LaplaceNoMa View Post
Well, I actually share Renall's point of view about that. I don't really see that 'you've proposed a solution'. As well as Renall and some other people, I can accept the possibility of Shkannon as some minor part in the whole mystery, like Kinzo's death at the beginning of each game. Making Shkannontrice the main mastermind does not make any sense no matter how you look at it. It doesn't explain anything about 07151129, Krauss's failed business, Rosa's co-signed debt, Hideyoshi's company stock catastophe, Rudolf's problems with USA corporate giant, battler's real mother, the child from 19 years ago, the origin of the gold... Well, I can continue, but long story short: it does not explain any important parts of the mystery. Even if Battler's sin is somehow related to Shkannontrice... then what? Do you really think that 'sin' is the core of the whole Rokkenjima incident? Well then, please explain its connections to at least those points I've stated above. These points are what really is important, much more important than Battler's sin and the 24:00 bomb explosion.

What I and probably Renall are trying to say for a while is not that we don't accept the idea of Shkannon. We're saying that if that's really the main theme of the whole mystery, than Ryukishi wasn't fair, even if it's 'not a standard mystery'. And, well, we'll feel quite betrayed.
I'm not suggesting that at all. Shkanon cannot be the final answer, of course, but that has nothing to do with whether Shkanon is the culprit. The simple fact that Shannon=Kanon would only be one barrier towards finding the truth. Also, I am not suggesting that Shkanon is the only culprit. If that were the case, EP5 would make no sense whatsoever.

In other words, you are the one suggesting that Shkanon alone should solve everything, not me. I think it's just the first step towards finding the answer.

You might remember what I said in my first post after figuring out this theory. I said that I'd figured something out that would give an explanation for everything, but that I was almost certain that it was missing something. Of course, that theory went a bit farther than just Shkanon, but it's still nothing more than a foundation for building theories on. I haven't yet posted all of my thoughts on it, but what's there does form the basis for this family of theories.


@UsagiTenpura: I think Battler's apology was towards Meta-Beatrice. My guess is that after watching several games, Meta-Beatrice realized that the Golden Land wasn't real, and her goal throughout this series is to stop herself and whatever other culprits are taking advantage of her. If so, then Battler would realize that Beatrice only ever killed because of a mistaken ideal, and was willing to give up her meta-life to correct that mistake. ...Or something vaguely along those lines
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Old 2010-08-02, 12:09   Link #15110
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Rudolph violated copyrights and got sued. No mystery.
Wooah woah, you really don't think that it's strange? That every sibling got into such financial troubles at the same time?

Well, if that's a coincedence, that would be pretty much unfair too. I don't even want to think that it doesn't have anything to do with the vaults, the letters in 1998, and the whole 'I'll be killed tonight' thing.

In my opinion, all those financial troubles clearly indicate that it's the work of the same person. Probably the one who was blackmailing Natsuhi, the one who made sure all Krauss's projects would fail and so on. 'The man from 19 years ago'. Is that man Shkannon? I don't think so.
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Old 2010-08-02, 12:11   Link #15111
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@Chrono, I don't have Chrome of FF on this computer right now, so I didn't check your google wave yet. I will probably install FF right now in order to check it.
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Old 2010-08-02, 12:15   Link #15112
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No I don't think it's strange.

Krauss' incompetantness isn't new, actually in his case what's new is that his project is actually working for once.
Hideyoshi's business IS a bit more suspicious, but after arc 4's Sumadera and Okonogi I think this is all red herrings.
Rudolph's niche market has been going on all his life, it was a matter of time before this happened.
Rosa did her loan 9 years ago, she's been in debts for 9 years.

What I think is strange is believing the murders still have anything to do with greed. After all Beatrice owns 10 tons of gold, why'd she kill a bunch of bankrupt people?

I think LD made enough fun of conspiracy theories in arc 5 to definitively rule them out as red herrings.

Edit: A bit more about how conspiracy theories are likely red herrings. By arc 4 many people started to theorize that Kasumi was the mastermind/culprit. However in arc 6 we learn her own family wants her dead. So that made the culprit "go up" to "whoever is the real leader of the Sumadera". But that's exactly why it doesn't make much sense, basically it feels like "hey, here's despisable people who aren't on the island and have something to gain from everyone's death, they're easy to blame culprits". If in arc 7 you hear that the Sumadera family are in a deal with the Sonozaki, in which the Sonozaki ends up getting rid of the Sumadera, will there start to be theories about how Keiichi and Mion are the real culprits? This is how senseless all the "new character = head of the conspiracy" theories are like.
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Old 2010-08-02, 12:23   Link #15113
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Nono, I'm not saying that the greed is the cause of the murders. I'm saying that their financial situation was perfect to make them participate is some kind of a setup. Episode 4 actually proved that pretty much everyone is tied in it. Why can't we think that Kyrie, Jessica and everyone else were trying to make Battler 'believe' because it was something the culprit was intending? Something that would leave everyone alive and with some money from the culprit? What if his sin is something that caused some vital information (possibly about the gold) to leak to outsiders, who then planned everything?

I just honestly don't want to stop thinking. The shady conspiracy isn't really the only point that makes it interesting. What I really want to believe is that the culprit is outside. Something Battler was believing in the first episodes too. And it's quite possible, you know. He can be outside of the island, if he created perfect circuimstances through blackmailing.
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Old 2010-08-02, 12:32   Link #15114
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If the culprit is outside the island, Umineko's not even a mystery.

Actually so little make sense in what you say. Why would a culprit NOT on the island, who wants the gold, force people to make a crazy act to make Battler believe in magic before BLOWING UP THE ISLAND?

There's like 0 point in doing so from a greed perspective. Actually after arc 5 I honestly think you have to be headstrong to believe greed is the main motive anymore. It might be motives of "isolated kills" but it's not the reason any of this is happening in the first place.

It seems you decided by yourself what are the important points on Umineko, reject everything Battler (who figured out the truth) hints about the truth he found out, and decides that the rest of the story is nonsense.

Let's say I go along with you, Ryukishi explained pretty much how Zepar and Furfur were important to the core of the story. So explain to me, with your greed theories, what's Zepar and Furfur's importance in a greed conspiracy.

Reread arc 5, part of what Battler realized was wrong about his reasoning that lead him to the truth was believing the culprit wasn't someone introduced in arc 1.


Edit: Actually Battler isn't aware of any of the 1998 events, meaning that if any of them were truly meaningful it would violate knox 8th and make the whole thing unsolvable.
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Old 2010-08-02, 12:38   Link #15115
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Oh god here we go. Now you're implying my theories have anything to do with greed, while I've stated they don't a post ago.

That's basically what Renall was saying about Chrono and all Shkannontrice-believers. You probably don't even notice how headstrong YOU are, and how funny is the fact that you look down on everyone, being absolutely sure that you've reached the truth. And then you look so surprised that everyone hates you and tries their best to disprove shkannontrice even more than to find the actual truth itself.

Once again, no greed, world peace, government plot to cover for the Yamashita gold. If they all go along with it and forget everything, they get a lot of money with their keys and cards with pin-code 07151129, if they don't and they still want to find 'the truth' like Battler does, well then all of them are fucked because the bomb would explode.

And ep6 implied heavily that the truth Battler found it just the 'Battler's truth', since the game didn't really end. He still has an obligation to actually explain all of the mysteries.
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Old 2010-08-02, 12:39   Link #15116
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Actually, I halfway agree with LaplaceNoMa on this point (talking about his post before his last one), though not for the same reasons. There is plenty of evidence that someone off the island at least had knowledge of the crimes beforehand, and took steps to take advantage of that.

For example, it seems likely that Eva was supposed to die on the island (since it happens in most games). There is only one group that would have directly benefited by Eva's death: the Sumadera family (or possibly just Kasumi). If Eva had died, then Ange would have gone to the Sumadera family, and they would have gotten all of the Ushiromiya family wealth without having to split it with Okonogi and Ange. Since Ange would be under their control, she'd be effectively imprisoned or dead from the get-go.

Also, the Sumadera family would only benefit in this way at all if Ange wasn't on the island, and the odds are very much against Ange's sickness being a coincidence. So, it seems fairly likely that they were behind that as well.
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Old 2010-08-02, 12:46   Link #15117
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Hmm Laplacenoma, but how can you explain how could someone manipulate things in a way that the siblings would find themselves in such financial situations?

Most of their problems are direct consequences of things they have done themselves. Rudolf's company violated some copyright, that isn't something you can forge. It means that Rudolf actually made a mistake.

As for Krauss if there really was someone paid to make him fail he should have had a pretty easy job considering how gullible and incompetent he is.

And who told Hideyoshi to sell the majority of his stocks?

As for Rosa she cosigned for a loan with a man that was supposed to become her husband and who's Maria's father. And that actually happened 9 years before.

To imagine that some kind of group could manipulate all that, you'd have to think about an organization with multiple connections worldwide with various infiltrate in the ushiromiya's business, who are close enough to manipulate directly the sibling's decisions. And all of this should have been preplanned at least nine year prior.

This is by far more unlikely than thinking that the siblings simply happened to have financial problems. Sadly in this world having financial problems isn't something more strange than a secret organization.
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Old 2010-08-02, 12:50   Link #15118
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Oh god here we go. Now you're implying my theories have anything to do with greed, while I've stated they don't a post ago.

That's basically what Renall was saying about Chrono and all Shkannontrice-believers. You probably don't even notice how headstrong YOU are, and how funny is the fact that you look down on everyone, being absolutely sure that you've reached the truth. And then you look so surprised that everyone hates you and tries their best to disprove shkannontrice even more than to find the actual truth itself.
I am not for, nor against, Shkanontrice.
I am against the endless personal arguments that lead people like you to insult it's believers and even call them "fags" should I have to link the posts you make?
I made plenty of post to explain my neutrality on the topic I won't try again.

I don't see where anyone claimed they reached the absolute truth. In fact I posted many theories that oppose each other, it doesn't mean that's a wrong thing to do.

Nontheless I am heavily against conspiracy theories and culprits off the island. I am aware it makes REALISTIC sense, however it violates Knox 1st and Knox 8th so much that it wouldn't even be a mystery if that's the truth. With the arc 6 revelation that Kasumi's family wants her dead, if the conspiracy theories are true then we might not even have met the real culprit yet.


Edit: I can agree that people take advantage of the crime. That's sorta what arc 4 was showing us tho, Beatrice sent money to all the relatives almost as "baits" so that if anyone took it, it would look like the crimes were for the benefits of external people. People like Kumasawa's son didn't take any profits from it, but people like the Sumadera would of course finds ways to profit from it. Actually that's the biggest point I'm going to say about this. Let's say the Sumadera doesn't know about the murders, and that Ange's sickness is really an accident, would they have behaved any differently? I don't think so. To put it differently, let's say that we learned about the safe in a different context, and instead learned that Nanjo's son took the money from there. Would that be proof he knew about the murders? No simply that he took advantage of the situation after it occured. I can't prove that the Sumadera doesn't have anything to do with any of this, but Knox 1st and Knox 8th needs to be explained if that's any true. As well as how Battler figured out the truth without any future knowledge.
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Old 2010-08-02, 13:56   Link #15119
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Well, if you're calling all people who believe in an afterlife crazy, I'm going to have to disagree with you there.
Besides that being a complete mischaracterization of what I said (as usual), it's a very sketchy argument to support.

I could easily turn it around the other way and ask: Are you implying that people who believe in an afterlife are not crazy, but also not rational? That would of course also mischaracterize what you're saying, so let me try to be properly direct:

Your theory posits an unfounded religious schematic as part and parcel of a solution. There's nothing inherently wrong with killing for or in accordance with religious practices; there have been many fine novels written about people killing for religious ends or killing according to strict religious rules (which then become clues to help catch the culprit, knowing that only a strict Methodist would do blah blah blah). The problem is that the religious beliefs you have concocted are not particularly rational. Thus, they don't entirely stand on the same level as a "real-life" religion, as they necessitate followers be, for lack of better descriptors, crazy, evil, or unreflective.

Rational religious people do not kill or allow others to die because they will go to Heaven anyway. Rational religious people do not commit sins to square other people's sins, even if they care deeply about the sinfulness of another. Rational religious people would be inherently uncomfortable with committing acts their belief system views as "evil," and the argument that "well it's not evil in this belief system" makes it far too narratively convenient. There is a word for religious people who are not rational. They are fanatics, and are decried for good reason.

"Religious fanatic" is right up there with lunatic and "that guy was just plain evil" in the pantheon of disappointing villain revelations. I'm not saying that you necessarily believe this, but calling the grossly underdeveloped Golden Land Theology concept a religion is something of a disservice to religion. It does not accord a consistent or self-reflective spirituality. And even if it did, and I bought that it was all true, "Beatrice" is clearly acting in deviation from those precepts even if she is not the culprit. She would be doing evil, even to her own beliefs.

And maybe she is, but... if you have to invent a religion for your prime mover, then invent their apostasy... you might be overthinking it.
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Old 2010-08-02, 14:07   Link #15120
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