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Old 2010-08-04, 13:30   Link #15261
Renall
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I'm not sure it's that simple. Battler is a character in a story, and that story is set in 1986. Further, I'm not sure that acknowledgment actually fixes the date, just describes preconditions surrounding a certain date.

I'm not saying the story isn't actually set in 1986... but when it's being written could be quite important, in my mind.

For instance... what if the writer's "present" is in 2005? That would be 19 years subsequent to 1986.
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Old 2010-08-04, 14:29   Link #15262
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Putting up a random observation:

In EP2, the only people shown trying to "run away" from the goat heads (I'm excluding EP4 for now) are the people in Rosa's group and George's group. The connection: they are attacked by the goat heads after visiting the chapel.

Could this have something to do with the location of the bomb? I know this is a very, very loose connection, but I think that the bomb is in the chapel. After all, Rosa, Maria, Gohda, George, and Shannon were the ones that ran away from the goat heads almost immediately after visiting the chapel. Aside from EP4, these are the only cases of characters trying to escape.

As I said, just throwing this out there with the assumption that the goat heads are symbolic of the endgame explosion.
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Old 2010-08-04, 14:52   Link #15263
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I remember in EP2 or something, where Rosa is running down a path towards the ocean with Maria, shooting goat heads as they ran. If you consider the volcano theory, the goat heads could be lava, and they are running from the lava. Of course, shooting lava won't do anything. I also can't think of anything that might come out of a bomb and chase people, except for the explosion but you can't run from that.
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Old 2010-08-04, 15:05   Link #15264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by porchoky View Post
I remember in EP2 or something, where Rosa is running down a path towards the ocean with Maria, shooting goat heads as they ran. If you consider the volcano theory, the goat heads could be lava, and they are running from the lava. Of course, shooting lava won't do anything. I also can't think of anything that might come out of a bomb and chase people, except for the explosion but you can't run from that.
90% of the island is trees.
Burning trees faling all over the place is possible.

Also :
Spoiler for this:
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Old 2010-08-04, 15:48   Link #15265
DaBackpack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by porchoky View Post
I remember in EP2 or something, where Rosa is running down a path towards the ocean with Maria, shooting goat heads as they ran. If you consider the volcano theory, the goat heads could be lava, and they are running from the lava. Of course, shooting lava won't do anything. I also can't think of anything that might come out of a bomb and chase people, except for the explosion but you can't run from that.
There are of course the trees, but I thought of it as Rosa's group and George's group saw the bomb in the chapel and attempted to run away before it detonated. George's group tried to hide inside the mansion, but it wasn't far away enough. Rosa and Maria tried to run through the forest, but they either did not run fast enough or were engulfed in the flames of the burning trees.
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Old 2010-08-04, 15:58   Link #15266
k//eternal
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And of course, Rosa-Musou is so GAR that she can stab lava with a fountain pen and achieve some success!
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:08   Link #15267
UsagiTenpura
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
There are of course the trees, but I thought of it as Rosa's group and George's group saw the bomb in the chapel and attempted to run away before it detonated. George's group tried to hide inside the mansion, but it wasn't far away enough. Rosa and Maria tried to run through the forest, but they either did not run fast enough or were engulfed in the flames of the burning trees.
Why didn't anyone notice the bomb was in the chapel at first, for later to have mostly the same people notice it instantly, while it's dark at night?
Why would George/Shannon/Gohda believe it's specifically a good idea to hide in Natsuhi's room? Why even bother to lock it up? Why not warn Battler if they knew about the bomb? Why did they somehow believe a mirror would protect them from a bomb, or have any other reasons to get a mirror while they know the place is about to blow up?

Rosa and Maria being aware of the explosion does feel a lot more possible, tho doubtfully before it began. They were however as far as I remember running toward the beach. Running toward the forest is a bad idea, there's no way you can move rapidly there and Rosa in particular should be aware of that.
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:26   Link #15268
DaBackpack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura View Post
Why didn't anyone notice the bomb was in the chapel at first, for later to have mostly the same people notice it instantly, while it's dark at night?
Why would George/Shannon/Gohda believe it's specifically a good idea to hide in Natsuhi's room? Why even bother to lock it up? Why not warn Battler if they knew about the bomb? Why did they somehow believe a mirror would protect them from a bomb, or have any other reasons to get a mirror while they know the place is about to blow up?

Rosa and Maria being aware of the explosion does feel a lot more possible, tho doubtfully before it began. They were however as far as I remember running toward the beach. Running toward the forest is a bad idea, there's no way you can move rapidly there and Rosa in particular should be aware of that.
Well, perhaps the bomb was not planted until after the First Twilight. That way, when Rosa's group and George's group investigated the second time, they saw it. (Sorry about all the blue, I use blue text when making theories )

I don't really buy the volcano theory too much. How come solving the epitaph would be able to save people if the disaster is a volcano? And more importantly, how the hell can Kinzo anticipate when a volcano will blow?

As for George's reaction, I would think he just picked a random room or wanted the mirror for another reason and just thought he would be able to escape before the explosion got him.

But I will concede that the volcano theory does explain some things. Rosa thought she could outrun the lava, but she tripped. George thought the elevation would save him, but he couldn't escape to an area high enough.
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:37   Link #15269
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I think the chapel is at the very least 500m far from the Mansion and there should be at the very least the same distance from the Mansion to the Guesthouse.

I think you should try to think this realistically. It's either a small nuclear warhead, or there are multiple bombs scattered around the various buildings. Any other situation is simply impossible! There is not such a thing as a single bomb with such a destructive power! Short of a nuclear bomb of course.
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:41   Link #15270
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Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
I don't really buy the volcano theory too much. How come solving the epitaph would be able to save people if the disaster is a volcano? And more importantly, how the hell can Kinzo anticipate when a volcano will blow?
Easy it doesn't. If it's true it just happens. Besides I thought we were pretty certain that Kuwadorian is safe.
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:43   Link #15271
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
I think you should try to think this realistically. It's either a small nuclear warhead, or there are multiple bombs scattered around the various buildings. Any other situation is simply impossible! There is not such a thing as a single bomb with such a destructive power! Short of a nuclear bomb of course.
A suitcase nuke would partly explain the world peace line Okonogi has. Japan is not supposed to have WMD's under the NPT. If this got out there are some very bad political consequences.

EDIT: Especially since this is just after the cold war era.
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:44   Link #15272
Oliver
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
There is not such a thing as a single bomb with such a destructive power! Short of a nuclear bomb of course.
There is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel-air_explosive

But failing that, an ammunition depot blowing up can produce blasts equivalent to arbitrarily high amounts of TNT by simply stocking that much TNT.
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:45   Link #15273
Jan-Poo
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Eva was found in Kuwadorian and she was the only survivor. Also the books in Kuwadorian are the only books that survived the explosion.

@Oliver

Apart from the fact such a bomb is as rare as a nuclear bomb if not rarer, what's exactly the explosion radius? The shock wave doesn't justify the complete destruction of bodies. It would only burn the bodies to a crisp and torn them apart but they'd still be quite recognizable.
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:46   Link #15274
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Well if we're to believe at least part of Rosa's escape... there's a few things the cause has to follow.
-It drastically change the landscape up to the beach.
-It cannot destroy Kuwadorian which is about 2 kilometers away I believe.
-It's something Rosa saw coming enough to attempt to run away from.

Basically is has to have the destructive power of something like a small nuke but not be nearly as instantaneous. Actually generally speaking any explosion is too rapid to attempt to run away from. Fire wouldn't spread to the beach nor cause a massive change of landscape there. Unless it's a volcano, I believe the only plausible solution is a chain reaction of events that contains one or more explosions and possible landslide.

However, again, it takes an event that would really obliterate the corpse of everyone to the point only vague remains can be found.
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:49   Link #15275
Pikatira
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
Well, perhaps the bomb was not planted until after the First Twilight. That way, when Rosa's group and George's group investigated the second time, they saw it. (Sorry about all the blue, I use blue text when making theories )

I don't really buy the volcano theory too much. How come solving the epitaph would be able to save people if the disaster is a volcano? And more importantly, how the hell can Kinzo anticipate when a volcano will blow?

As for George's reaction, I would think he just picked a random room or wanted the mirror for another reason and just thought he would be able to escape before the explosion got him.

But I will concede that the volcano theory does explain some things. Rosa thought she could outrun the lava, but she tripped. George thought the elevation would save him, but he couldn't escape to an area high enough.

What if George wanted the mirror to try and defuse the bomb? Why a mirror, well maybe it is in such a tight spot that he need a mirror to be about to see it.
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:54   Link #15276
Jan-Poo
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I can't believe he specifically needed a fancy shinto mirror for that or that there wasn't any other small mirror in the whole mansion. Natushi's room wasn't exactly the most accessible place.
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:54   Link #15277
DaBackpack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Eva was found in Kuwadorian and she was the only survivor. Also the books in Kuwadorian are the only books that survived the explosion.
Well yes, the Kuwadorian is safe of course. But I still either think that, if an explosion is the cause of death for most of the Ushiromiyas, the Epitaph could not have predicted it.

George doesn't know about Kuwadorian, so he runs to the mansion.
Rosa runs to the ocean because she thinks it's close enough.

And sorry for not knowing the distance between the chapel and the other buildings, it makes less sense now that you put that in. I can't think of any other specified area where an explosion could occur, though, except possibly the boiler room (we need foreshadowing).

EDIT: Yes, a chain reaction could make sense. Perhaps the "center of the chain" was placed inside the Chapel?
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Old 2010-08-04, 16:56   Link #15278
Jan-Poo
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Actually I have probably exaggerated now that I think about it. Considering that the kuwadorian is only 2km far from the Mansion, I guess the distance between the chapel and the Guesthouse is at best 500m.
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Old 2010-08-04, 17:02   Link #15279
Judoh
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Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
And sorry for not knowing the distance between the chapel and the other buildings, it makes less sense now that you put that in. I can't think of any other specified area where an explosion could occur, though, except possibly the boiler room (we need foreshadowing).
Just the couple of mentions that the boiler acts up is hint enough I think. We've look into this before and a boiler explosion could destroy a building or at least burn it down so that there's nothing left.

That's not the problem. The main problem is that the explosion should affect a fairly large area if we want to rely on the maps from the anime, which show that there's just a huge hole where the mansion used to be. and from the radio of the golden witch stuff and the interviews those indicate we most likely should rely on the anime's information for this because it shows some stuff the VN can't adapt very well.
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Old 2010-08-04, 17:05   Link #15280
LyricalAura
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Originally Posted by Kylon99 View Post
Just to add some more things for UsagiTempura...

Not only the stuff you mentioned, but I thought Bernkastel tells us directly what Rule X is in her letter. The 'Heart' or 'Core' (心臓部) of Beatrice. So, it seems before that the bomb was compared to her heart in EP3 when Eva couldn't 'destroy' it before she ran away...
http://umineko.wikia.com/wiki/TIPS/Bernkastel's_Letter

I think her saying that it's like Higurashi's story (or that 'story that starts 06/20) is more about the end where everyone gets wiped out and the truth can't be known...
I think it's very dangerous to assume Bernkastel was correct about this. Her idea of Rule X is based only on Lambda telling her that she "certainly can't win", but she thinks it's obvious and even calls Lambda a "stupid girl" for revealing it.

Bern's win condition is killing Beato and ripping out the guts of the game board, not stopping the murders. How is the midnight event supposed to interfere with that, especially when Lambda's perfectly aware that the mystery was designed to be solvable by Battler in the first place?
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