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Old 2010-09-02, 11:43   Link #17041
Jan-Poo
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I think he wasted money in many different failing projects.

I can hardly see how it could be all just a lie. If he didn't have any trouble in the world of finance, then why would he need to commit a crime?
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Old 2010-09-02, 11:48   Link #17042
Will Wright
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
I think he wasted money in many different failing projects.

I can hardly see how it could be all just a lie. If he didn't have any trouble in the world of finance, then why would he need to commit a crime?
BECAUSE THE USHIROMIYA HEAD IS INSANE! INSANITY IS THE MARK OF THE HEAD!

Seriously though, the correct theory is that Krauss is just overconfident and thinks he won't repeat his financial mistakes again, even though we know he will.

But I will always go with the alternative that makes George look terrible and Krauss look awesome.

Krauss destroyed George's head in episode 4.
With a punch.
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Old 2010-09-02, 11:49   Link #17043
littlegal100
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Originally Posted by Will Wright View Post

Krauss destroyed George's head in episode 4.
With a punch.
..and that somehow makes it ok?
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Old 2010-09-02, 11:53   Link #17044
Will Wright
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..and that somehow makes it ok?
...It was a joke?
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Old 2010-09-02, 11:55   Link #17045
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...It was a joke?
I know..(Sorry if I sounded too serious)
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Old 2010-09-02, 11:57   Link #17046
Oliver
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Also, do we have any evidence that Krauss really lost money with SPACE TOURISM other than Natushi saying that? She was shocked that he lost money in the first place. MAYBE IT'S ALL PART OF HIS PLAN.

Or maybe I'm just a Krauss fan and I'm trying to make him look like God.
I don't think that there are enough clear statements out there that allow us to tell it was the space tourism scam that lost him the bulk of his money. It is only mentioned in Ep5 and never brought up again. The scene does present him as stupid, but I am not sure this is in fact a case in general.

I'd love to seriously study the 419 scammers, and figure out how the heck do they manage to fool anyone at all -- the list of "anyone" includes people who are otherwise quite normal and sometimes fairly smart, and most importantly, experiments show, that 419 scammers are, as a rule, not smarter than their victims -- often quite the contrary.

Unfortunately, it's problematic to calculate how many of those potential victims are out there in general population and see if there is anything in common among them, without sending out my own scam as an unsolicited bulk email, which would be way too unethical even for me.

That Krauss got caught once -- that is, if he really did -- is not a good example of his general intelligence, but rather, may turn out to mean that he is generally trusting. (One of my best friends says "I'm not stupid, just a bit naive." She is. And she has two degrees in number theory.) As it has been said by the characters in the same Ep5, Krauss' business is about being trusted with other people's money, and it may well be that he is actually generally successful in it because he is trusting -- in many situations, it's simply easier to trust someone who readily trusts you.

That is, until someone figures out you can get taken advantage of repeatedly, and starts milking you... And that may turn out to have been another character in the story.
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Old 2010-09-02, 12:10   Link #17047
Will Wright
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I know..(Sorry if I sounded too serious)
Haha it's fine, relax. Also on a sidenote I would instantly forgive any plot holes if Krauss really did punch George's head to the stratosphere.

Quote:
I don't think that there are enough clear statements out there that allow us to tell it was the space tourism scam that lost him the bulk of his money. It is only mentioned in Ep5 and never brought up again. The scene does present him as stupid, but I am not sure this is in fact a case in general.

I'd love to seriously study the 419 scammers, and figure out how the heck do they manage to fool anyone at all -- the list of "anyone" includes people who are otherwise quite normal and sometimes fairly smart, and most importantly, experiments show, that 419 scammers are, as a rule, not smarter than their victims -- often quite the contrary.

Unfortunately, it's problematic to calculate how many of those potential victims are out there in general population and see if there is anything in common among them, without sending out my own scam as an unsolicited bulk email, which would be way too unethical even for me.

That Krauss got caught once -- that is, if he really did -- is not a good example of his general intelligence, but rather, may turn out to mean that he is generally trusting. (One of my best friends says "I'm not stupid, just a bit naive." She is. And she has two degrees in number theory.) As it has been said by the characters in the same Ep5, Krauss' business is about being trusted with other people's money, and it may well be that he is actually generally successful in it because he is trusting -- in many situations, it's simply easier to trust someone who readily trusts you.

That is, until someone figures out you can get taken advantage of repeatedly, and starts milking you... And that may turn out to have been another character in the story.
It would be interesting to see if Krauss lost money or not. We have seen him being smart in episode 1, so we know he is not a moron even if he did lose money. If we assume he is the Xanatos of Umineko then he pretended to lose money so that Natsuhi would take the fall for hiding Kinzo's body instead of him. But...Eh, I don't know.
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Old 2010-09-02, 12:38   Link #17048
Jan-Poo
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If we take for true what has been shown in EP5 and what Kinzo said about him before (Okay Kinzo is dead but that could still be his real opinion), I don't think you could just say that he just failed once or that he's simply too trusting.

Krauss has been described as someone who has good ideas but always messes up the timing. In the world of finance knowing when to buy and when to sell is the most important skill you need to have, even more than what to buy and what to sell. If you lack this skill you simply aren't fit for this world.

Kinzo describes Krauss as someone that "invests 2 and gain 1" hinting that this kind of failing pattern repeated itself many times.

Krauss in EP5 wasn't simply shown as careless or trusting. Natsuhi quite apparently told him not to trust suspicious people and he refused to listen to her. There's a bit of pride here, despite being completely dumb Krauss wants to believe he's smarter.
If even Natsuhi, not really the smartest kid on the block, could understand that someone was a scammer, then it wasn't even a "good" scammer and Krauss is even more gullible than your average con artist victim.

Additionally using your own house as a collateral, embezzling money from your father, denotes a total lack of responsibility. This is the kind of behavior you would expect from a gambler addict. And that's probably what Krauss is, except he's been gambling several millions of yen each time.

To get to this point Krauss must have lost money in several occasions. He certainly must have gained some, but as Kinzo said, he probably gained 1 while losing 2.
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Old 2010-09-02, 12:51   Link #17049
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He's certainly played up as exceptionally dumb in ep5. Which, in some ways, contradicts his earlier character. He plays the siblings for fools in ep1 with no particularly meaningful information, has been managing the Kinzo charade as the face-man to the siblings (with Natsuhi handling the logistics), tends not to crack under pressure, and seems pretty competent at circling the wagons whenever he survives the FT. We also almost never see the actual family conference negotiations, but they take a very long time in every episode where they're not interrupted, so apparently Krauss has some kind of ability to hold his own against the other siblings.

It's also mentioned quite a bit that Krauss is good at playing his siblings off each other, something Eva seems annoyed by and tries to avoid it so that she, Rudolf, and Rosa can put up a unified front against him.

Then there's his "kidnapping" in two episodes. Especially ep5. He disappears with a strange phone call, his bed is coated in fake blood, and he's nowhere to be found again. If not for the red stating he was killed, how would we even know what he's doing? Natsuhi refuses to incriminate him, but that's just because she's pure and faithful. It doesn't mean he is.

I can't really swallow him as a particularly logical mastermind or culprit, but I think he's been rendered a bit too much of a fan joke than he actually is. He's gotta have something between his shoulders to take on all three of his siblings at once and win.
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Old 2010-09-02, 13:02   Link #17050
Jan-Poo
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It's a common mistake to think that a person is either intelligent in everything or stupid in everything.

There are many "intelligences", one could be a genius in math and still be completely incompetent at work.

The fact that Krauss doesn't have a knack in the world of finance doesn't necessarily contradicts his apparent ability to hold his ground with his sibling.
To begin with he was never described as someone who totally lack a brain even though that space tourism thing really seems to suggest otherwise.
But maybe that was just the result of a sort of gamble addiction that clouded his mind.
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Old 2010-09-02, 13:05   Link #17051
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According to ep5, it's not so much scams... more that he invests in something too early, panics when it doesn't do well, and sells it off. It then takes off without him. Can't remember the exact scene which gave this impression, though.

Incidentally... how would any Krauss culprit theory get around the red saying he is not the culprit? Or the fact that he's confirmed dead in the first episode FT... and the second episode FT... and shortly after the 5th episode FT?
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Old 2010-09-02, 13:21   Link #17052
Jan-Poo
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That's the same old question. Culprit of what? Being not the culprit of a particular murder doesn't mean not being the mastermind or the culprit behind the explosion.


Plus If I were to exclude everyone that was said to be not the culprit at least once, including Van dine rules and excluding those who can't possibly be the culprit then who remains?

George
Jessica
Rosa
Eva
Kyrie
Yasu
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Old 2010-09-02, 14:45   Link #17053
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Haha it's fine, relax. Also on a sidenote I would instantly forgive any plot holes if Krauss really did punch George's head to the stratosphere.
If Episode 8 turns out to be one long literary exercise in Rule of Cool, then frankly I could forgive Ryukishi for any other slipups between now and when the universe suffers Heat Death.


Quote:
It would be interesting to see if Krauss lost money or not. We have seen him being smart in episode 1, so we know he is not a moron even if he did lose money. If we assume he is the Xanatos of Umineko then he pretended to lose money so that Natsuhi would take the fall for hiding Kinzo's body instead of him. But...Eh, I don't know.
That would be ridiculously awesome. It would turn out that Krauss being incompetent and on the ropes would just have been a troll on Ryukishi's part. In actuality, offing the Ushiromiya family wholesale would have saved him, financially, and he had a method to ensure that he'd get away with it.

After all, if anyone seriously tried to investigate him or blame him for the murders, he'd kill them and their entire family with a single punch.

Yes. Krauss is the culprit due to Pure Awesome. It works.
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Old 2010-09-02, 15:37   Link #17054
Will Wright
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If Episode 8 turns out to be one long literary exercise in Rule of Cool, then frankly I could forgive Ryukishi for any other slipups between now and when the universe suffers Heat Death.




That would be ridiculously awesome. It would turn out that Krauss being incompetent and on the ropes would just have been a troll on Ryukishi's part. In actuality, offing the Ushiromiya family wholesale would have saved him, financially, and he had a method to ensure that he'd get away with it.

After all, if anyone seriously tried to investigate him or blame him for the murders, he'd kill them and their entire family with a single punch.

Yes. Krauss is the culprit due to Pure Awesome. It works.
For the benefit of how awesome that sounds, I will now rework Double Shkanon in a way that Krauss is the culprit. Give me...4 hours and I'll be back with a theory!

EDIT: Also the one punch thing makes Krauss look like Batman.

Spoiler for ONE PUNCH:
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Old 2010-09-02, 15:44   Link #17055
Judoh
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Well here is the first block to that from episode 5.

Ushiromiya Krauss is not the culprit.

This red would have to be universal or each game would have to be a different culprit right? Right?
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Old 2010-09-02, 15:47   Link #17056
LuckySovietStar
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Originally Posted by TehChron View Post
If Episode 8 turns out to be one long literary exercise in Rule of Cool, then frankly I could forgive Ryukishi for any other slipups between now and when the universe suffers Heat Death.




That would be ridiculously awesome. It would turn out that Krauss being incompetent and on the ropes would just have been a troll on Ryukishi's part. In actuality, offing the Ushiromiya family wholesale would have saved him, financially, and he had a method to ensure that he'd get away with it.

After all, if anyone seriously tried to investigate him or blame him for the murders, he'd kill them and their entire family with a single punch.

Yes. Krauss is the culprit due to Pure Awesome. It works.
I vote for Kyrie Detective then. She was always one and only person in Ushiromiya family worthy being Krauss's opponent in mindgames.
And KDetective would by AWESOME take that aimed at Bern.
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Old 2010-09-02, 15:48   Link #17057
Will Wright
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It was said in red that Battler was the detective for the first 4 games, wasn't it?


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Well here is the first block to that from episode 5.

Ushiromiya Krauss is not the culprit.

This red would have to be universal or each game would have to be a different culprit right? Right?
The culprit in episode 6 is Erika. Since she didn't affect the first 4 episodes, it's safe to assume that culprits may change during each game.
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Old 2010-09-02, 15:50   Link #17058
Judoh
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I'll say this now a lot of my "hints" for George involve him detecting things like the letters and interest in the letters and stuff.

If George turned out to be the detective in episode 8 based on his deductions in the first few games. I would give up reasoning completely. Because then each suspicious hint about him can be twisted into something putting him in a positive light.
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Old 2010-09-02, 15:51   Link #17059
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Yeah, Dlanor said it. I was just making some wishes about EP8 .


Quote:
If George turned out to be the detective in episode 8 based on his deductions in the first few games. I would give up reasoning completely. Because then each suspicious hint about him can be twisted into something putting him in a positive light.
This is why I want Kyrie as detective. Not only she is smart, but she also has knowledge, that would elegantly explain some info to us.
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Old 2010-09-02, 15:53   Link #17060
Judoh
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The culprit in episode 6 is Erika. Since she didn't affect the first 4 episodes, it's safe to assume that culprits may change during each game.
Yes..., but if she's not an existing person anyway the real culprit is masked by her character in that episode. That and Krauss isn't involved in murder in that one either.
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