AnimeSuki Forums

Register Forum Rules FAQ Members List Social Groups Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Go Back   AnimeSuki Forum > Anime Discussion > Older Series > Retired > Retired M-Z > Umineko

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2010-09-15, 16:42   Link #17681
Renall
BUY MY BOOK!!!
 
 
Join Date: May 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Don't worry I don't see any reasonable risk for that to turn out to be the truth.
And on what evidence do you base this determination of reasonability?
__________________
Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

Blog (VN DL) - YouTube Playlists
Battler Solves The Logic Error
Renall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 17:31   Link #17682
RockReborn
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Classified
Here's a thought I've been toying around with.

What if those bestowed with the title of "Beatrice" are the authors? We would have Beato for Eps 1 and 2, Eva for Ep3, and Ange for Ep4. I could see Eva as having written Ep3.
RockReborn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 17:34   Link #17683
Will Wright
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Used Can View Post
My point was, so far, none of the detectives (whose POVs are supposedly reliable) have seen them together. The only time we thought that happened, we got Battler's perspective, but he was no longer the detective.
I might be wrong here, but I think that Erika saw the two of them together in episode 5.

As for detectives never seeing them together...Look at it from Beato's perspective:

-Single Shkanon is something she would like to push Battler into believing
-It eventually leads him into Double Shkanon(and therefore the truth) and until then it seems like a very solid move
-Making them not meet is very different from it not being possible that the three met.

In other words, she kept a card up her sleeve the whole time.

Or in meta-meta-meta, Ryuukishi was trying to troll us with Shkanon to divert our attention from the actual truth.
Will Wright is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 17:40   Link #17684
RockReborn
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Classified
The argument for single Shkanon there in Ep5 is that since Erika wasn't narrating in first person, the narration wasn't necessarily reliable. Ultimately one can argue one way or the other and neither side will get anywhere. But that's beside the point if we're theorizing about Double Shkanon now.
RockReborn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 17:51   Link #17685
Smeckledorf
Intellectual Rapist
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: 3 12151805142615
Quote:
Originally Posted by Will Wright View Post
I might be wrong here, but I think that Erika saw the two of them together in episode 5.

As for detectives never seeing them together...Look at it from Beato's perspective:

-Single Shkanon is something she would like to push Battler into believing
-It eventually leads him into Double Shkanon(and therefore the truth) and until then it seems like a very solid move
-Making them not meet is very different from it not being possible that the three met.

In other words, she kept a card up her sleeve the whole time.

Or in meta-meta-meta, Ryuukishi was trying to troll us with Shkanon to divert our attention from the actual truth.
Beato was never trying to mislead Battler, it was the classic reverse troll. I think Battler said something like that is a stupid way to tell me that or something after Beato died. She was obviously trying to show him something in her games.

Anyways, I honestly see no reason for two people to disguise as each other.
__________________
Smeckledorf is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 17:55   Link #17686
Will Wright
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
Beato was never trying to mislead Battler, it was the classic reverse troll. I think Battler said something like that is a stupid way to tell me that or something after Beato died. She was obviously trying to show him something in her games.
Where did I suggest she was misleading him? I said that single Shkanon is the path she paved towards Double Shkanon.

I mean if normal Shkanon wasn't so blatant, we would never have reached Double Shkanon.

Imagine Shannon and Kanon in the same room. Now, try to imagine yourself arriving at Double Shkanon.

Beato was leading him towards that conclusion. And if single shkanon(which is not true) was her way of showing him Double Shkanon(which means that Beato is Shannon) then everything makes sense.

...Except for Kanon's motive during episode 2, but I'll get into that later.
Will Wright is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 17:59   Link #17687
Smeckledorf
Intellectual Rapist
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: 3 12151805142615
Quote:
Originally Posted by Will Wright View Post
Where did I suggest she was misleading him? I said that single Shkanon is the path she paved towards Double Shkanon.

I mean if normal Shkanon wasn't so blatant, we would never have reached Double Shkanon.

Imagine Shannon and Kanon in the same room. Now, try to imagine yourself arriving at Double Shkanon.

Beato was leading him towards that conclusion. And if single shkanon(which is not true) was her way of showing him Double Shkanon(which means that Beato is Shannon) then everything makes sense.

...Except for Kanon's motive during episode 2, but I'll get into that later.
And what leads you to believe that Shkanon is not one person? You had in your original post that Beatrice pushed Battler to believe Shkanon is one person, if that was not the truth then that would technically be misleading.
The biggest and most devastating flaw in your 'Double Shkanon' theory is... what's the point? What would be the point of two people disguising as each other?
__________________
Smeckledorf is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 18:09   Link #17688
Will Wright
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smeckledorf View Post
And what leads you to believe that Shkanon is not one person?
The fact that Jessica, Krauss and Natsuhi would have to be legally retarded not to notice that.

Quote:
You had in your original post that Beatrice pushed Battler to believe Shkanon is one person, if that was not the truth then that would technically be misleading.
No it wouldn't. My point is that the only way you can arrive at Double Shkanon is by being shown the clues hinting towards single Shkanon before realizing it's impossible without all characters involved being retarded.
Quote:
The biggest and most devastating flaw in your 'Double Shkanon' theory is... what's the point? What would be the point of two people disguising as each other?
There are a lot of earlier posts on this, but two people pretending to be one is good in that it helps you to commit murder way more easily. WAY more easily.

As for a non-meta reason, my theory is that Kinzo wanted 'Beatrice' to live close to him until she was reborn, and needed a reason to justify her being there. So he said she was a servant. But she was never a servant as he would never tell the woman he loved to do something like that. So he made Kanon do the work for both him and Shannon, while Shannon did nothing. It explains the love duel in episode 6(whether Kanon should follow Shannon and protect her like he promised Kinzo or stay and love Jessica) and it makes some reasonable sense.

The biggest advantage about Double Shaknon is that it allows Jessica, Krauss and Natsuhi not to be retarded.
Will Wright is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 18:19   Link #17689
Jan-Poo
別にいいけど
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
And on what evidence do you base this determination of reasonability?
The evidence of Ange's personality. She's not the kind of person that would write a fake story about how her family died.
__________________

Jan-Poo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 18:20   Link #17690
alarmadadna hadi
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: With the runaways
Quote:
What if those bestowed with the title of "Beatrice" are the authors? We would have Beato for Eps 1 and 2, Eva for Ep3, and Ange for Ep4. I could see Eva as having written Ep3.
Came to my mind as well. Consequently, the miracle bernkastel ensured was Ange's story reaching battler, except it will only happen under a pseudonym which reflects the meta-rule of ange not being allowed to reveal her identity.

Anyway, even if we don't want characters writing their own stories (like jan said, as ange found even the witch hunters theories repulsive), eva or witch-hunters influencing 3 and ange influencing 4 can still hold some weight assuming Featherinne really is the one weaving these, whereby she does not 'make up' stuff but patches peoples beliefs of what happened on Rokken-prime and itches them as reality in fragments or stories.

But in any case, the biggest issue I cannot conceive is where is battler in this case? Is he locked up in some faraway castle reading the stories while waiting for mario to save him? Or could it be related to okonogi's plan, since ange seems to be a thorn in it perhaps battler surviving is even more of an obstacle as he knows something that happened on rokkenjima?

Quote:
Beatrice is the concept of "luck" or "that which cannot be explained."
Following your idea, wouldn't illusion be simpler? Messing up the chain of cause or effect by introducing false causes.
alarmadadna hadi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 18:21   Link #17691
Will Wright
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
The evidence of Ange's personality. She's not the kind of person that would write a fake story about how her family died.
What if she wrote the 'basis' for the story? She could have been trying to figure out how those deaths occurred and wrote a diary about her conclusions, then someone later found her diary and novelized it.
Will Wright is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 18:33   Link #17692
Renall
BUY MY BOOK!!!
 
 
Join Date: May 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
The evidence of Ange's personality. She's not the kind of person that would write a fake story about how her family died.
I notice you're missing the "without a good reason" part that is necessary there and that you don't want to think about.
__________________
Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

Blog (VN DL) - YouTube Playlists
Battler Solves The Logic Error
Renall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 18:36   Link #17693
Judoh
Mystery buff
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaBackpack View Post
. Beatrice is the concept of "luck" or "that which cannot be explained."
I don't know I always thought Miracles were about luck since they have like a 1 in a million chance of happening. And with the way Kinzo talks about making miracles this seems to be his Motif.

Yeah it would make more sense as illusion than luck probably.

There's also a lot of conversation on the concepts these witch's follow in the Lambda thread I think.
Judoh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 18:37   Link #17694
Jan-Poo
別にいいけど
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
We have never really seen Ange making any speculation. It seems to me that she doesn't want to guess what happened, she's probably sick of speculations.

However it's possible that this is only true for the Ange of 1998 and initially she did think about what could happen.

And yet, why Ange would include magic stuff on her story? We have evidence that Ange didn't believe in magic not even when she was a little child. Unless it all happened during the brief timespan when she started imagining Mammon and the stakes.

But then again why would she write such a story? Why would she be pissed at "witches" for killing her family in their stories if she did the same thing?

Also if Ange really did write EP3, then she would make Eva a more evident culprit, her story would be more similar to Bern's tea party rather than to a Beatrice's game. We learn later that Ange didn't really achieved a true understanding of magic until 1998, and whoever wrote EP3 must really understand magic to describe all the things that happened in EP3. Ange didn't even understand the "black witch" thing before, she couldn't possibly describe Evatrice.

The let's say that there is a coauthor, but how did this other author managed to get Ange story? And why would this second person need it? Why she couldn't write a story from scratch? At any rate even if this is the case, I think that what really matters is the last author anyway.

Quote:
I notice you're missing the "without a good reason" part that is necessary there and that you don't want to think about
I read your points, none of them is convincing nor necessary. For any of them there is a better explanation.
__________________

Jan-Poo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 18:40   Link #17695
Leafsnail
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
The other argument for Ange is sortof process of elimination. The game is meant to be solvable within the first 4 episodes, and Hachijo isn't introduced until episode 6. Therefore, a reader would have to say that "culprit X" wrote episodes 3 and 4.

Unless some other character wrote them (Okonogi? Amakusa? Battler?).
Leafsnail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 18:43   Link #17696
Jan-Poo
別にいいけど
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafsnail View Post
The other argument for Ange is sortof process of elimination. The game is meant to be solvable within the first 4 episodes, and Hachijo isn't introduced until episode 6. Therefore, a reader would have to say that "culprit X" wrote episodes 3 and 4.

Unless some other character wrote them (Okonogi? Amakusa? Battler?).
In that case it would make more sense to speculate that Beatrice survived.
__________________

Jan-Poo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 19:21   Link #17697
Leafsnail
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
That'd miss the clues about there being a different author, though. It'd be pretty much the abscence of speculation.
Leafsnail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 19:31   Link #17698
chounokoe
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Düsseldorf, Germany
Age: 30
Send a message via MSN to chounokoe Send a message via Skype™ to chounokoe
Quote:
Originally Posted by Will Wright View Post
As for a non-meta reason, my theory is that Kinzo wanted 'Beatrice' to live close to him until she was reborn, and needed a reason to justify her being there. So he said she was a servant.
I know it's an IN-thing to disregard almost everything that was proposed by EP7, but I think we're reaching territory where the Episode could have as well never existed in the first place.
Knowledge as of now is that, it was not Kinzo who put the 1986 Beatrice into Fukuin and back on the island but the servants. I would go even further to say, that it would make not much sense otherwise, because it would make Kinzo's whole behaviour (lamenting for Beatrice to return) either illogical or a trick that is impossible to get to unless we would start ignoring evidence and guess.

There are several scenes in the first 4 Episodes that imply that a real Beatrice is on the island, but Kinzo is unable to see her. For example in Episode 2, when Kanon comes back from the beach and sees Kinzo crying in the rosegarden. A ghostly Beatrice appears behind him, sad about the fact that even though she is just behind him (much like Kanon), he is unable to see her because he lacks love.

There are several other scenes, especially in Episode 2, that heavily imply that Kinzo was waiting for Beatrice to return, but had no actuall knowledge about her whereabouts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leafsnail View Post
The other argument for Ange is sortof process of elimination. The game is meant to be solvable within the first 4 episodes, and Hachijo isn't introduced until episode 6. Therefore, a reader would have to say that "culprit X" wrote episodes 3 and 4.

Unless some other character wrote them (Okonogi? Amakusa? Battler?).
We do not necessarily have to know about the existence of Hachijo Touya to guess that there are different authors to some Episodes. While Episode 1 and 2 follow the same basic layout, 3 and 4 provide a completely different scenario.
Also Episode 3 is the only one where the survivors match the actual outcome (Eva as the only survivor) so it is highly probable to have been written afterwards.
We also learn of the theory that two bottle letters exist and that they were probably written before the incident.

Ange is also possible to rule out as an author, because of her goal to destroy the legend of Beatrice, while the Episodes actually uphold the witch theory. She would have to be pretty weird in the head to actually write against herself in the end...

I actually had the theory that one of the Witch Hunters wrote some of the later Episodes when I read Episode 4, because in made sense in the context.
__________________
愛が無ければ・・・視えない!!
chounokoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 19:41   Link #17699
Will Wright
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by chounokoe View Post
I know it's an IN-thing to disregard almost everything that was proposed by EP7, but I think we're reaching territory where the Episode could have as well never existed in the first place.
I'm not so much ignoring it as avoiding using it as anything more than a complement because I'm not confident enough in my Japanese to base my arguments around it. When it contradicts something, I do try to mention it though.

Quote:
There are several scenes in the first 4 Episodes that imply that a real Beatrice is on the island, but Kinzo is unable to see her. For example in Episode 2, when Kanon comes back from the beach and sees Kinzo crying in the rosegarden. A ghostly Beatrice appears behind him, sad about the fact that even though she is just behind him (much like Kanon), he is unable to see her because he lacks love.
The way I interpret that is that Shannon is like chick-Beatrice. She looks like Beatrice, but does not act like it. Kinzo laments that Shannon is not like the Beatrice he loved, but if he loved her like a granddaughter/daughter instead he would be able to see 'Beatrice' but in a different way.

Quote:
There are several other scenes, especially in Episode 2, that heavily imply that Kinzo was waiting for Beatrice to return, but had no actuall knowledge about her whereabouts.
Considering that Kinzo is a lunatic, he could consider Shannon to be Beatrice's 'vessel' but her 'soul' to be somewhere he can't reach.

It would explain things a bit better if we were to assume that Beatrice is alive and he knows it, but she isn't Beatrice even while alive.

Otherwise he would have to be extra insane.

But here is where the classic black hole of 'I wouldn't put past Kinzo to make my theory plausible' comes in that I am guilty of myself. Kinzo has been built as someone who would do anything(except kill Beatrice on purpose) with very little reason, so it's hard to pinpoint his actions.

Quote:
Knowledge as of now is that, it was not Kinzo who put the 1986 Beatrice into Fukuin and back on the island but the servants. I would go even further to say, that it would make not much sense otherwise, because it would make Kinzo's whole behaviour (lamenting for Beatrice to return) either illogical or a trick that is impossible to get to unless we would start ignoring evidence and guess.
If we assume that it was indeed the servants who did it like episode 7 said, then it can still be 'Genji told Kanon to protect Shannon' or something similar.

It's not illogical for Kinzo to lament for Beatrice to return even while he knows she is Shannon though. It would be similar to Battler wanting her to return even after she comes back as chick-Beatrice.

Last edited by Will Wright; 2010-09-15 at 20:33.
Will Wright is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2010-09-15, 20:47   Link #17700
Renall
BUY MY BOOK!!!
 
 
Join Date: May 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by chounokoe View Post
We do not necessarily have to know about the existence of Hachijo Touya to guess that there are different authors to some Episodes. While Episode 1 and 2 follow the same basic layout, 3 and 4 provide a completely different scenario.
Also Episode 3 is the only one where the survivors match the actual outcome (Eva as the only survivor) so it is highly probable to have been written afterwards.
We also learn of the theory that two bottle letters exist and that they were probably written before the incident.
Certainly, this evidence exists, and Author Theory long predated ep6, so the basic thesis here seems quite likely. If nothing else, ep3 has incongruous authorship.
Quote:
Ange is also possible to rule out as an author, because of her goal to destroy the legend of Beatrice, while the Episodes actually uphold the witch theory. She would have to be pretty weird in the head to actually write against herself in the end...
Because there is no precedent of anyone anywhere in the series setting out to destroy the witch and switching sides. Or that Beatrice ever wanted to be destroyed and asked, nay, challenged anyone to do so.

We probably also should not conflate Fictional-Ange with an Ange who would write anything. That Ange would exist only in a setting we have not seen. She should be similar to, but not necessarily the same as, the Ange portrayed.

Finally, consider that she might still be trying to destroy the witch's legend even by writing things like Alliance. If her writing is an effort to cast to the winds and bring Battler home... well, Battler coming home would destroy the legend that the witch spun a trap for him on Rokkenjima and kept him there, wouldn't it?
Quote:
I actually had the theory that one of the Witch Hunters wrote some of the later Episodes when I read Episode 4, because in made sense in the context.
But we accept, when evidence is presented, that a character we believe we may know existed ("Beatrice") wrote ep1-2. Why should we not consider, faced with evidence suggesting it, that someone in ep1-4 was the other writer (or writers)? There aren't a whole lot of other people. When you get right down to it, the writer pool really only sensibly becomes Maria, Rosa, Ange, or Battler. Of those, one is alive in the future, one probably is but is of unknown status, and two are apparently dead.

The Hachijou/Featherine character we meet is, in a sense, "one of the Witch Hunters," a random person who provides an authorial aura, but no apparent connection to the events. The possibility that she is not who she seems is taken pretty literally, even.
__________________
Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

Blog (VN DL) - YouTube Playlists
Battler Solves The Logic Error
Renall is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 17:34.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2015, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
We use Silk.