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Old 2010-09-23, 07:36   Link #17741
CainSonozaki
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Ushiromiya Natsuhi is not the culprit!!! so number 1 is out
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Old 2010-09-23, 09:30   Link #17742
Renall
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Also why everyone keeps thinking that Yasu can't be the culprit if we know that she's in fact the heir of the whole Ushiromiya family and she's only pretending to be a servant to avoid creating turmoil in the family?
We don't "know" that. Yasu (and perhaps Bern, but perhaps not) believes that.

There's also the problem that she simply has no comprehensible motive that doesn't either rely on insanity or is simply absurd. Motive yes, sensible motive no. Yet her personality works perfectly for someone who would scapegoat herself for someone else's sake, especially out of internal conflict (and she has plenty of that).

Even if I accept every word of the Yasu story as true, I cannot reach the conclusion from it that she is a mastermind or even, to be honest, a killer. She comes across as playful and even a brutally effective prankster (to the point of perhaps causing humiliation), but not the sort of person who could rise to a level of maliciousness necessary to commit either act for which she has been accused (the bomb and/or the serial murders).

Ep7 goes out of its way to establish the essential nature of motive, then goes out of its way to give Yasu every means (the gold, the bomb, being a secret heir) and opportunity (Battler, the epitaph, the family conference, help from Genji, Kinzo's sanction, etc.), but no motive I can really fathom. There is, particularly, an incredibly important gap in time that seems like it has to be where the motive crystallizes... and no matter what I try to stick into that time span, I can't think of a single thing that would change her so much that she would become a killer. Make her hopeless and easily manipulated, sure. Make her fatalistic and not opposed to someone else's plan unless motivated to fight back, sure.

But the killer? I just can't see that in her. Even if her life wasn't as well-off as Lion's, he's about the nicest guy you could ever meet and she's only a little edgier in my book. I just don't buy it.
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Old 2010-09-23, 10:23   Link #17743
Frisko
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Originally Posted by CainSonozaki View Post
Ushiromiya Natsuhi is not the culprit!!! so number 1 is out
Knox's 2nd. It is forbidden for supernatural agencies to be employed as a detective technique.

Also, at the beginning of Minagoroshi-hen (visual novel) it's stated that the environment that caused Keiichi, Rena, and Shion to commit murder was the actual culprit, perhaps the same logic applies here.
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Old 2010-09-23, 11:43   Link #17744
Renall
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Originally Posted by Frisko View Post
Knox's 2nd. It is forbidden for supernatural agencies to be employed as a detective technique.
That just means we can't use the red truth, not that the red truth isn't true.

However, it is possible the red there is contextualized.

That said, I don't actually believe the red text is "supernatural." It exists within the framework of the meta-narrative, which is the only place where it is used. No one on the game board of ep5 itself argues that Natsuhi must not be the culprit because "she just can't be." We don't get to hear what Battler says at the end, but if he intended to exonerate her, he would not have done so through any agency supernatural to the board.
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Old 2010-09-23, 15:18   Link #17745
Leafsnail
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Natsuhi as the culprit runs into all kinds of flaws, though.

I mean -
Alibis for most of ep1.
Confirmed as a murder victim during the first twilight of ep2.
Has a stake pulled out of her in ep3.
Just as likely as anyone else in ep4, I guess.
Confirmed not to be the culprit in ep5.
Confirmed as a murder victim (if you believe Ballerika) in ep6.
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Old 2010-09-23, 16:17   Link #17746
Jan-Poo
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
We don't "know" that. Yasu (and perhaps Bern, but perhaps not) believes that.

There's also the problem that she simply has no comprehensible motive that doesn't either rely on insanity or is simply absurd. Motive yes, sensible motive no. Yet her personality works perfectly for someone who would scapegoat herself for someone else's sake, especially out of internal conflict (and she has plenty of that).

Even if I accept every word of the Yasu story as true, I cannot reach the conclusion from it that she is a mastermind or even, to be honest, a killer. She comes across as playful and even a brutally effective prankster (to the point of perhaps causing humiliation), but not the sort of person who could rise to a level of maliciousness necessary to commit either act for which she has been accused (the bomb and/or the serial murders).

Ep7 goes out of its way to establish the essential nature of motive, then goes out of its way to give Yasu every means (the gold, the bomb, being a secret heir) and opportunity (Battler, the epitaph, the family conference, help from Genji, Kinzo's sanction, etc.), but no motive I can really fathom. There is, particularly, an incredibly important gap in time that seems like it has to be where the motive crystallizes... and no matter what I try to stick into that time span, I can't think of a single thing that would change her so much that she would become a killer. Make her hopeless and easily manipulated, sure. Make her fatalistic and not opposed to someone else's plan unless motivated to fight back, sure.

But the killer? I just can't see that in her. Even if her life wasn't as well-off as Lion's, he's about the nicest guy you could ever meet and she's only a little edgier in my book. I just don't buy it.
And okay it's not like I disagree with that, for the most part. But my point is not "Yasu is the culprit" rather "Yasu can't be excluded as the culprit because of the dine rules".
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Old 2010-09-23, 20:49   Link #17747
CainSonozaki
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frisko View Post
Knox's 2nd. It is forbidden for supernatural agencies to be employed as a detective technique.

Also, at the beginning of Minagoroshi-hen (visual novel) it's stated that the environment that caused Keiichi, Rena, and Shion to commit murder was the actual culprit, perhaps the same logic applies here.
That in essence is saying Ushiromiya Natsuhi is not the culprit, however you have no evidence to prove it.
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Right now the time where magic advents.
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Old 2010-09-27, 01:47   Link #17748
Judoh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frisko View Post
Also, at the beginning of Minagoroshi-hen (visual novel) it's stated that the environment that caused Keiichi, Rena, and Shion to commit murder was the actual culprit, perhaps the same logic applies here.
The line you're talking about refers to the X Y Z rules themselves being what you have to suspicious of since the X Y Z rules are the environment in Higurashi. It's also stated that these people's murders are irrelevant to the actual culprit's actions since whether those people's victims are murdered or not they die in the end from a disaster anyway. That's because the murders caused by rule X are different in every world while the murders of Tomitake, Takano, and Rika always happen in every world making them separate crimes.

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-09-27 at 02:17.
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Old 2010-09-27, 02:27   Link #17749
Judoh
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As much as I would hate it what I just described above could mean that the person who has the bomb dropped in their lap is probably the culprit of Umineko.

Well screw me for thinking... I still hope there is something more interesting than just that in store for us.
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Old 2010-09-27, 07:35   Link #17750
TehChron
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
As much as I would hate it what I just described above could mean that the person who has the bomb dropped in their lap is probably the culprit of Umineko.

Well screw me for thinking... I still hope there is something more interesting than just that in store for us.
To be fair, the person with the bomb this time around would certainly have enough knowledge of the situation and whats going on to be the legitimate culprit of the various twilights themselves.

So it's not like it'd be a cop-out.
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Old 2010-09-27, 23:18   Link #17751
Renall
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So this is sort of the layering as I am speculating it might pan out. Sorta.
Spoiler for Oh boy, charts!:
Spoiler for An explanation, of sorts...:
Why, it's all so simple! I hope someone can make sense of this, because I sure as heck can't!
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Old 2010-09-27, 23:27   Link #17752
k//eternal
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Riffing on the previous notion that every EP is a fiction distinct from Rokkenjima-Prime, I think it's actually possible for the meta layers to loop. That is, among other things, Hachijo's layer is both above and below Featherine's.

Suppose that you wanted to write a story in which someone was reading about yourself (the author). From the vantage point of said reader, you're someone fictional in a book writing about the reader. While the latter scenario is more surreal, it conveniently occurs in a world full of magical stuff anyway, while the former can take place in a real world (you could do it right now if you wanted to).

It just happens that as the reader of Umineko both vantage points are available to us as "real", leading to the confusing event in EP6.
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Old 2010-09-27, 23:37   Link #17753
Renall
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Originally Posted by k//eternal View Post
Riffing on the previous notion that every EP is a fiction distinct from Rokkenjima-Prime, I think it's actually possible for the meta layers to loop. That is, among other things, Hachijo's layer is both above and below Featherine's.

Suppose that you wanted to write a story in which someone was reading about yourself (the author). From the vantage point of said reader, you're someone fictional in a book writing about the reader. While the latter scenario is more surreal, it conveniently occurs in a world full of magical stuff anyway, while the former can take place in a real world (you could do it right now if you wanted to).

It just happens that as the reader of Umineko both vantage points are available to us as "real", leading to the confusing event in EP6.
Well, that's the 300 million yen question, isn't it. How much Ange is in the stories Ange claims to have read? And how does that work, exactly? I wonder if we'll ever actually find out.
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This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

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Old 2010-09-28, 01:07   Link #17754
Helmet-kun
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Spoiler for My Shpeil on 19th Person 'X':
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Old 2010-09-28, 08:33   Link #17755
Renall
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Well, you must also remember that the entire Lion thing is well outside the bounds of what we are told may exist in any capacity to begin with. It's basically rampant speculation on Bern's (or someone's) part. As far as the fictional "games" permit, Lion's existence is not allowed (out of bounds), and if we go by the notion that there is a "reality," Lion never existed in it (as Lion, anyway).

I think that's part of why Will is willing to defend the chance of it being happy. It's a "fantasy" anyway, it's not required to end in tragedy. Unlike "reality" which does/did.
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Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

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Battler Solves The Logic Error
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Old 2010-09-29, 00:28   Link #17756
Keriaku
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I'm gonna repost my Meta World theory, because I'm really hoping people will think about it and give their thoughts. I believe it's relevant in the face of Renall's theory because of its incredible simplicity. Rather than making the whole meta world almost more confusing, it makes everything simple, and even more accessible from the very beginning of the series. It's even hinted about from EP1 by Maria, with her Beatrice 'exists' statements, and takes into account almost every Meta scene in the series. This viewpoint is even possible to take from the get-go of the series if someone was so inclined, which I think trumps a theory that needs EP6+ knowledge to even begin to make sense of the meta world.

Spoiler for Meta-World Theory:
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Old 2010-09-29, 00:49   Link #17757
alviam099
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I quite agree to Renall there
In case that Lion's world is fantasy or whatever it is and if it is fantasy it does not need to end in a bad way since almost all of us creates our own world that we can be happy ..
Eh? So what if it is Yasu's fantasy ? A typical dream of someone who did not achieve anything in terms of family .. oh well sorry I haven't read Ep7 so far
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Old 2010-09-29, 01:04   Link #17758
Kylon99
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Originally Posted by Keriaku View Post
This viewpoint is even possible to take from the get-go of the series if someone was so inclined, which I think trumps a theory that needs EP6+ knowledge to even begin to make sense of the meta world.
Actually, I started developing the Author Theory at the beginning of EP2's time, due mostly to the existence of the written letters in a bottle. If the meta-world simply existed, then there would've been no real need to introduce the letters as a major story element. Especially seeing how they come up again in EP4.

It was interesting to note that at that time, I was actually suspecting Shannon to have written them and that she may have survived to continue writing more. Although certain friends kept discouraging my idea until EP6.
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Old 2010-09-29, 01:15   Link #17759
Keriaku
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Actually, I started developing the Author Theory at the beginning of EP2's time, due mostly to the existence of the written letters in a bottle. If the meta-world simply existed, then there would've been no real need to introduce the letters as a major story element. Especially seeing how they come up again in EP4.
I disagree, as the meta world existing doesn't invalidate the letters. Obviously the mastermind has something they want to accomplish in the lower reality, otherwise they would've just given up completely and tried to detach themselves from it (Which even does happen in EP4 where Beatrice tries to stay with MARIA)

And I don't think that tiny point is enough to invalidate the things that I make fit.
What do you guys say about Maria and Sakutarou? What do you guys say about Maria saying Beatrice 'exists'? What do you guys say about Ange's whole meditation scene in EP4? My theory fits in perfectly with the way Ryuukishi presents these scenes and how we're suppose to see all of this stuff with love.

With the Author Theory, do you guys write off the development of real world characters in meta scenes? I'd rather embrace it. Do you guys think there can't be a happy ending for Kanon AND Shannon?
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Old 2010-09-29, 07:12   Link #17760
~Ayane~
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Originally Posted by Keriaku View Post
I'm gonna repost my Meta World theory, because I'm really hoping people will think about it and give their thoughts. I believe it's relevant in the face of Renall's theory because of its incredible simplicity. Rather than making the whole meta world almost more confusing, it makes everything simple, and even more accessible from the very beginning of the series. It's even hinted about from EP1 by Maria, with her Beatrice 'exists' statements, and takes into account almost every Meta scene in the series. This viewpoint is even possible to take from the get-go of the series if someone was so inclined, which I think trumps a theory that needs EP6+ knowledge to even begin to make sense of the meta world.

Spoiler for Meta-World Theory:
yes, you know...this is the most logical and probable theory, but try to explain this to anti-fantasy people and they will call you a retard..sad..
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