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Old 2010-11-09, 03:43   Link #18641
Kaisos Erranon
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And this is why George is fat. I mean, why we hate him.
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Old 2010-11-09, 09:40   Link #18642
Renall
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
But. But. She's important! Although only because we know absolutely nothing about her.
Which still bugs me. If the anime had shown her we could write it off as laziness since the VN didn't bother with younger versions of Eva/Krauss/Kinzo/Beatrice or Maria's different outfits. I suppose the only scene in which she might actually need to "appear" is from Chiru, but the mere fact that they didn't even try to throw a bone is mysterious indeed.

That said, assuming Asumu is guilty of anything just because she's unexplained is as poor a theory as "Kyrie must be the culprit because she's smart" or "George must be the culprit because he's a dick." But I guess they're all pretty popular.
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Well, that WOULD explain how he's able to get around being named at specific times.

Of course, this also means he was hiding in the closet when Erika had that meeting in the parlour. Maybe he knows about the family fear of looking inside obvious hiding places?
If any such person exists and if such a person is physically present, I'd expect some kind of mindbender twist like our Battler is projecting himself onto the wrong Battler or somesuch. If there actually are two Battlers, I don't think it's some issue of one skulking around utterly unseen.

But of course, was there even really another Battler? That's a question that would, thematically, be part of ep8 (as the "you're not the real Battler" thing came from ep4). But what does answering that question actually do for the story, whether the answer is yes or no?
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Old 2010-11-09, 10:04   Link #18643
UsagiTenpura
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It remains mostly a joke theory, but Battler being a Yasu furniture she created for her stories if Battler never came back on Rokkenjima prime would explain actually so much.
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Old 2010-11-09, 10:14   Link #18644
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I'm just amused by how people are acting like Yasu (assuming she's the culprit) relying on luck or anything is at all an asspull, considering roulettes and risky gambles and shit have been a plot point in Beatrice's character since day one. It's what "magic" is, and you can bitch and moan all you want about how that's not how a MYSTERY does things, but a MYSTERY story also doesn't have multiple planes of reality where non-objective memetic entities debate the genre of the story from a 4th wall perspective.
I agree with nearly everything here (of course), but even so, I'd say the mystery genre fully allows for a culprit who takes a chance and gets lucky.

The world's most famous mystery novelist's most famous detective's favorite murder case, Cards on the Table by Agatha Christie, involves an extremely improbable murder, and the fact that it was extremely improbable is actually a big clue to finding the killer.

So, instead of ignoring the mystery genre, this might be adding another one to the list of what Bern called "the crazy string of great works" at the end of EP5.
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Old 2010-11-09, 10:23   Link #18645
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There's nothing great about a culprit whose plan can be thwarted by people being lazy or tired. I'm already letting the author push it with impeccable firearm and wound accuracy (except in the ep7 TP, which may have been deliberate), a ploy that relies on people not observing you with no readily apparent artifice of your own to make sure they don't is flat-out stupid and I don't care what Christie did.

You know if you want to defend this the easiest way around it would be "there was some artifice in play," but so far all I've heard is "Nanjo probably did something offscreen" which relies on assuming a clue not presented (that Nanjo in fact did something offscreen).
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It remains mostly a joke theory, but Battler being a Yasu furniture she created for her stories if Battler never came back on Rokkenjima prime would explain actually so much.
He didn't come back in Lion's world. Instead of assuming anything was different, perhaps we could assume this is in fact something which is the same?

The "Battler" we know and love could certainly be an overly-idealized version of a person. He could be argued to be read that way, at least.
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Old 2010-11-09, 10:28   Link #18646
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Well if anything, you have a Battler who after six years is now really tall, strong, charming and a young Kinzo look alike. It wouldn't surprise me if it was "the way Yasu imagined he became".

Edit: Isn't it also a bit odd how we basically know nothing of Battler during these six years? I mean what we know surely can be resumed in a postcard he'd have sent Jessica and that Yasu could've read.
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Old 2010-11-09, 10:48   Link #18647
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It's true. Battler's growth and general presence are very... idealized.

Reading "Battler as furniture," doesn't the "you aren't the real Battler" stuff from ep2 and ep4 come across as a bit odd? It's no longer "Battler disappoints Beatrice by forgetting," but instead "Beatrice realizes the Battler she created is imperfect and wants to be rid of him." Though the fact that he comes back and elevates himself don't really seem to add up there.

Of course if Battler never went, Ange should've known that. So either 1998 is fishy or there's something else going on.
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Old 2010-11-09, 10:50   Link #18648
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I think Jessica's flashback in EP7 tells us something. She clearly gets pranked, but doesn't actually think a witch did it. However, she does think that several people would have had to work together, and that freaks her out so much that she decides to stop thinking about it. In other words, because it was set up in a way that made it look like there were many culprits, Jessica's position slides from "that was a fake" to "I don't know and I don't want to". This seems to have happened to Battler in EP2 as well.

However, that prank could have been done by one person, if they were willing to take a few risks. This person would have to guess how Jessica would react. This means that, the better they know Jessica, the better chance they have of guessing. The chances of failure are still high, but much lower than they could have been.

What I'm trying to say is that making Battler think that there are multiple culprits is almost enough for the witch to win. EP2 tells us that Battler just can't bear to think that anyone close to him is a killer, and having to think that there are many killers is just too much. So, if it's true that no one else is murderous enough for Yasu to buy them, or if Yasu can't trust them to keep silent, then Yasu would have to do everything alone and take risks.
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Old 2010-11-09, 10:59   Link #18649
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If you're willing to buy that a person is prescient enough to know how people are going to react to ritual murders, sure.

Oh wait, I'm not willing to buy that.

I know some people pretty well. Well enough that I could guess what they're doing if we're all at a party? Probably. Well enough that I could guess who might be awake and who might be asleep at 3am? Sure. Well enough that I can predict how they'll react to finding my corpse? Give me a break. I don't even know how I would react to that.

If the answer to every mystery is "the culprit took a risk that, through sheer luck, didn't bite them in the ass because people behaved appropriately out of narrative necessity," the writer is a hack and you have no faith in his skills to hold him to such a pathetic standard. That aside, it goes completely against the notion of the closed room mystery, which is meant to be a cleverly (or in fringe cases, coincidentally but traceably) constructed scenario to prey upon the false assumptions of the observer. So you're also asserting that he's a hack who lies to himself and his reader.

I certainly hope he isn't.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:05   Link #18650
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Well Renall, I know you don't seem to like references to Christie much, but in "Then there were none" the culprit/mastermind predicted everything to a level that wasn't very realistic. At least for the last few murders. Also he took the great risk of faking his death which could've been found out.

Seeing as the influence from it on Umineko are undeniable, I think it's to be expected that the culprit actually does pretty much predict everyone's reactions.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:09   Link #18651
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"Christie did it" is no excuse. Christie did a lot of questionable crap. There should at least be evidence to support a cover-up to help out the killer if the killer is in a position of incapacitation and thus reliant on the actions of others he or she cannot predict or stop. The best way to ensure predictability is to have somebody among the group of survivors making damn sure things go the way they need to.

For instance, the whole "Let's close the shed until the police arrive" thing from ep1. Perfectly reasonable. Will I bitch about exactly how someone in the shed got out? No. It's fine that someone at least has created the appearance of making an excuse. The killer is no longer operating solely on coincidence.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:14   Link #18652
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My point wasn't to excuse either Christie or Ryukishi but to say it's somewhat to be expected.

Hopefully it's generally not abused but I don't think it's entirely a taboo way of thinking.

Also I guess... it's like a red battle. The way Beato says her red is usually made to sorta ensnare our thoughts into thinking about the wrong thing. Sure after a bit of thinking more it can be easy to realize something is wrong but I assume when you're put in a situation where everyone's dying around you you might not have the composure to stay out of these thought patterns.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:17   Link #18653
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I thought everyone here believes that Beatrice did not operate alone?

That's why we always cast George as the culprit, right?

He always just seem to push the explanation to ritual murder and everyone agree on it. Then Maria will just laugh hysterically to get everyone's nerve on "it is Beatrice's doing"

And then Nanjo is always there to ensure every "corpse" is dead, not every adult buy him in EP3 though.

There must be an adult who is so sensible to lock up the crime scene in every episode. Rosa is probably recruited in EP2.


Which part of the killing scheme relies mostly on luck, Renall?

(I don't buy Shannon changing into Kanon and pose dead in the chapel as well. Supposedly the chapel is locked and can only be open with that specific key, which is in the hand of adults. )
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:18   Link #18654
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"Christie did it" is no excuse. Christie did a lot of questionable crap. There should at least be evidence to support a cover-up to help out the killer if the killer is in a position of incapacitation and thus reliant on the actions of others he or she cannot predict or stop. The best way to ensure predictability is to have somebody among the group of survivors making damn sure things go the way they need to.
But what if Yasu couldn't get someone in the group of survivors to assist her in murder? You're assuming that there are several people in the Ushiromiya family that could be convinced to murder their family members for some reason, or allow someone else to murder them and just stand by. What if that isn't the case?
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:19   Link #18655
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Well with the fake deaths of arc 5 and 6 it's beyond doubts that "someone" is able to get pretty much anyone to act any way they want.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:20   Link #18656
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Look, there's two levels of narrative happenstance I'm getting at here:
  • All the characters are misled by a scene which appears to be what it is not (except possibly the detective). They react as if the scene were as they believe it to be, which the culprit predicted would happen so long as nobody saw through the ploy; this happens to be the most convenient thing for the culprit, even though there was a small chance of failure if the story were "reality."
  • All the characters are misled by a scene because it appears from the story that they "must" be misled. They react in the manner most coincidentally convenient for the culprit.
It's a matter of degrees, I admit, but one is basically acceptable and the other isn't. The question is what breaks the suspension of disbelief.

Do I believe the people at the ep1 shed could've been fooled by someone faking? Yes, especially if Hideyoshi and Kanon were in on it (and that can be justified by their behavior, even if it's not true, so the scene "flows" properly).

Do I believe in a ninja double-swap in ep3? Not in the slightest, and the mere suggestion of it is repugnant to the narrative and laughable to an extreme.
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But what if Yasu couldn't get someone in the group of survivors to assist her in murder? You're assuming that there are several people in the Ushiromiya family that could be convinced to murder their family members for some reason, or allow someone else to murder them and just stand by. What if that isn't the case?
Lot of assumptions being made there. That Yasu exists, that Yasu is the culprit, that Yasu intends to kill anyone, that an accomplice knows they're helping to commit a murder, etc.

I never assumed anything. You assuming that I assumed that is just... proof of... your assuming... of assumptions. Look, the point is think harder.
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I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

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Old 2010-11-09, 11:24   Link #18657
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Doubting whoever went to the chapel (Rudolph was it?)'s testimony is far easier and less nonsensical then the Ninja Double Swap. Tho if I have to say why he lied about it, my guess is the same reason Hideyoshi lied in arc 1.

Edit: I have to say, if you're looking for a way the culprit can manipulate people into doing whatever, well arc 5 showed us how someone got Natsuhi to do whatever he wanted her to do.

Assuming the culprit has enough background info on others it'd be easy to make a variation of the arc 5 scenario to get someone to act like you want.
There's even something that can help that : letters that tend to appears.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:26   Link #18658
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Yes, I'm fine with that. If it's just "Yasu faked death, adults lied to kids about finding Kanon," then sure you can have somebody from the FT still alive. However, you have to determine (1) which adults are in on it in ep3 as it would seem to suggest they all are, and (2) the purpose of the lie for later, and (3) why the person in on it doesn't tell the truth the instant they find Rosa Dead For Real(tm).

EDIT: Also the red evasion, but that's another matter.
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I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

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Old 2010-11-09, 11:27   Link #18659
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Doubting whoever went to the chapel (Rudolph was it?)'s testimony is far easier and less nonsensical then the Ninja Double Swap. Tho if I have to say why he lied about it, my guess is the same reason Hideyoshi lied in arc 1.
The group who went to the chapel should be Nanjo, Krauss, Natsuhi, Eva, Hideyoshi and Rudolf. (quite a large group)

Rosa and Kyrie were said to be in the guesthouse.


I remember one theory is that the group of adults have an agreement with the servants (in current stage, one can say they made a deal with Beatrice) that they would retreat to guesthouse to think of the epitaph, while they told the children the servants have been dead in order to stage a ritual for Maria. The adults did not expect the servants to be dead, but when Rosa turned out dead for real, they suspect the servants did it but they kept it onto themselves.
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Old 2010-11-09, 11:29   Link #18660
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Not any larger then the group of people who lied about arc 5's first twilight tho.

Thanks for the correction btw.
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