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Old 2009-10-17, 17:43   Link #1381
Antera Caramichael
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Well, I agree with you. Ange could simply have done DNA test to deduce whose blood where spread xD
But more seriously, that is what exactly I am saying. Come on, Ange is a Golden Witch that can kill a dozen of bodyguards by magic but she decide that shooting the bitch is more cool? xD
And that doubt was instilled since the Rose Garden battle when Beato says that Kinzo was dead since the begining... the first scene of Ep1 isn't Kinzo talking with Nanjo about the family reunion?^^

Last edited by Antera Caramichael; 2009-10-17 at 18:07.
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Old 2009-10-17, 17:43   Link #1382
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If the letter is basically what we see in Episode I, then there is a very real chance that it is entirely false and that the Meta-Games afterwards are the attempts to show us what really happened...via magic and clues. This runs counter to most theories that suggest that Episode I is what really happened, and the Meta Games are there to pick out the who, why, and how via complex magic clues that have become so complex that people are loosing their sanity.
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Old 2009-10-17, 17:59   Link #1383
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Originally Posted by kaitwospirit View Post
Since the bottles were released into the ocean, the point and location where they might wash up is random. They may not wash up at all (which I personally assume is the reason that there are so many of them - the assumption is that several will be lost). Given the unpredictable nature of ocean currents, I'm not particularly surprised about the differences in timing.
I agree with this. The time the bottles are found changes with each game. That makes episode 3's case where the bottle was found on the day of the accident unique. Therefore, we have no absolute confirmation that the bottles were sent before, during, or after the incident. I will put my bet on "during the incident" (right before or right after the first twilight). I just don't see how it could have been done before considering all the variables involved.

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We can't trust anything that is not said in red
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:05   Link #1384
Kaisos Erranon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael View Post
Well, I agree with you. Ange could simply have done DNA test to deduce whose blood where spread xD
DNA Tests. Right.

The reason Ryukishi sets these stories in the 1980s is because there weren't DNA tests (or cellphones) back then.

And, since I believe they did have DNA testing in 1998, I don't think it's possible to test blood that was spilled twelve years ago... could someone please confirm/deny?

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Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael View Post
But more seriously, that is what exactly I am saying. Come on, Ange is a Golden Witch that can kill a dozen of bodyguards by magic but she decide that shooting the bitch is more cool? xD
The theory is that Juuza was sniping from somewhere hidden.

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Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael View Post
And that doubt was insteaded since the Rose Garden battle when Beato says that Kinzo was dead since the begining... the first scene of Ep1 isn't Kinzo talking with Nanjo about the family reunion?^^
Ah. But which family reunion? There's this little literary troll called "undeclared flashbacks"... another visual novel that I hear had a big influence on Ryukishi used them to great effect.

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Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
If the letter is basically what we see in Episode I, then there is a very real chance that it is entirely false and that the Meta-Games afterwards are the attempts to show us what really happened...via magic and clues.
Episode 1 is still the only game without magic scenes or red text, making it a more reliable version of the truth than anything else. Unless you consider Natsuhi's delusions to be magic scenes, which they kind of are, in a way.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:10   Link #1385
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It's possible to test remains years after the fact if they're properly preserved. Odds are by the time the police even found the scene, it was too late to save most evidence. If Maria's jaw was saved to make some kind of positive identification that would be one thing, but really it's unlikely any blood survived in a testable state.

Also, if the incident wasn't actually treated as a homicide they wouldn't have bothered to save any of the evidence anyway. There wasn't any doubt about everyone dying, and if things weren't seen as a crime, there wouldn't be much point in preserving it.

If some blood HAD been preserved, Ange could've had it compared to her own and known pretty clearly whether the blood came from a family member or not by 1998, but that would've been no help as there were a half-dozen or so people who were supposed to be on the island who weren't Ushiromiyas.

Plus, I seriously doubt they had any existing blood sample to compare Kanon and Shannon's DNA to, so even if you found some anomalous DNA, you can't really be sure it wasn't just Kanon's blood.

Essentially, it would have been no help even if Ange had access to it.

EDIT: Although it would've certainly been interesting to find out whether Battler's DNA was a close match to Ange's, eh?
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:17   Link #1386
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
DNA Tests. Right.

The reason Ryukishi sets these stories in the 1980s is because there weren't DNA tests (or cellphones) back then.
DNA profiling has been in use since 1985, and mobile phones have been under commercial use since 1979.

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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
Episode 1 is still the only game without magic scenes
We did see golden butterflies in EP1, though.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:19   Link #1387
Antera Caramichael
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Well, comparison is not the problem here, all you need is hair from a brush, skin samples or saliva on spoon or anything else.
Apparamently, the island was left abandonned, or in the care of Eva, and apparamently she never returned there. So we don't know if the mansion was still sealed since the procedure wasn't conclued, or if Eva engaged people to clean it after the sampling of the experts.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:20   Link #1388
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Hmmm....Ryukishi and his tricks....

Hgurashi's first arc was the most stand alone arc possible, as it has a very confined plot and all. However take it in with the rest of the series. It sets up what will happen for the rest of the question arcs...but doesn't setup the actual plot for the series. At that early stage, the aftermath...even the most critical murder of the plot, wasn't even hinted.

Could Umineko be following this line of storytelling? The first arc sets up that there are many murders on this island and that no one survives. But is that the actual plot? Is that even what is really important in the plot? If what we get in Episode I is actually a recreation of the letter's account of what happened...it could be entirely false...especially if it was written before the events happened. It might have been an accounting of what was suppose to happen.


As mentioned....Episode I has no Red Text. It could all be a lie...by Beatrice's rules.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:22   Link #1389
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
Episode 1 is still the only game without magic scenes or red text, making it a more reliable version of the truth than anything else. Unless you consider Natsuhi's delusions to be magic scenes, which they kind of are, in a way.
Episodes 2, 3, and 4 are the only episodes that have magic scenes for some of the murders.
Episodes 1 and 5 have no magic scenes for any of the murders. (Kanon and butterflies is possible in the real world )

This makes episode 5 very similar to episode 1 since no murders are shown to be done with magic.

The magic world scenes in episode 5 are just fancy visualizations of actual discussions that are taking place in my opinion.
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Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
Hmmm....Ryukishi and his tricks....
As mentioned....Episode I has no Red Text. It could all be a lie...by Beatrice's rules.
But red text came in later episodes that talked about the events of episode 1 so it had to have existed on some level.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:24   Link #1390
Antera Caramichael
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Thanks used Can, I was doubting between this year and 1989^^.
And since the Ushiromyia Family was one of the most wealthiest of Japan, I think that DNA test could have been done for this case if Eva really wanted to. And even if it is not the case, i think that the procedure ask to sampling any things that can contain DNA am I wrong? So there would be nothing that contradict the fact that blood sample could have been kept, and Ange using it in 1998 to ask someone to do it, always if Eva didn't asked.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:31   Link #1391
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Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael View Post
Well, comparison is not the problem here, all you need is hair from a brush, skin samples or saliva on spoon or anything else.
Apparamently, the island was left abandonned, or in the care of Eva, and apparamently she never returned there. So we don't know if the mansion was still sealed since the procedure wasn't conclued, or if Eva engaged people to clean it after the sampling of the experts.
Yeah, it's not that you can't compare it, but what would be the point? There's an entire family there, so it's going to be completely unclear who did or didn't die (if you find blood, it's going to be really hard to tell if it was a match to Rudolf or Krauss in particular, even though you can probably pin it down to "a male child of Kinzo").

If things were disastrous enough to nearly destroy some or all of the bodies, it's not going to help much to do DNA tests. If the scene were clearly a murder and there were clearly a suspect, then you might save the DNA just to prove that certain people were on the island as part of your case for murder. But Eva apparently wasn't even charged, so whatever happened the police didn't even think she could have done it. You can argue it's because she paid them off, but isn't it equally likely they just found no evidence to charge her with anything? Remember, everything we see in 1998 is filtered through Ange, and she's already concluded in her mind that Eva is a murderer whether that's true or not.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:31   Link #1392
Kaisos Erranon
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Originally Posted by Used Can View Post
DNA profiling has been in use since 1985, and mobile phones have been under commercial use since 1979.
Forgive me, but weren't most early mobile phones, um, huge and inconvenient?

And hmm, I didn't know they had DNA testing in 1985... I need to educate myself more... in any case, they didn't have the forensic technology (or access to the advanced computers that make such forensic technology possible) we do today, which was kind of my point, even if I'm wrong about everything else.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:36   Link #1393
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Eva has no incentive to preserve anything. If she's guilty, she doesn't want anyone to know. If she's innocent, she has to assume the murderer is dead because she was the only survivor. After that, who cares? She knows who died. It won't change anything or help anyone.

EDIT: I'm also highly suspicious of whether the entire incident was considered a crime at any point at all anywhere but the tabloids and in Ange's mind. They just let Ange keep a stake and Maria's diary? That sort of thing would definitely be evidence. If the police actually suspected crime, they'd never have let a stake be handed over to the family as personal effects.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:38   Link #1394
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
Workworkwork, replying to your Episode 4 thread post:

Knox's 10th Commandment: Disguising oneself as another character without any clues to that effect is forbidden. It is a violation of the 17-human limit for Kumasawa and a hypothetical Kumasawa!Beatrice to be alive on the island at the time Maria is given the letter. So long as you cannot present foreshadowing that Kumasawa is dead prior to everyone arriving on the island on October 4th, you cannot introduce Kumasawa!Beatrice as a character.
She's been remarked as having lived "Remarkably long", similar to already-dead Kinzo.

She transformed into Virgilia, who was probably Kinzo's Beatrice.

She asked Battler to feel her up. While it might have seemed a joke, it could be a clue.

She's always scurrying around and going "Oh my god! Blood!" when she's the only one there. Being disguised as an old lady, she doesn't fall under as much suspicion.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:49   Link #1395
Antera Caramichael
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Yeah, it's not that you can't compare it, but what would be the point? There's an entire family there, so it's going to be completely unclear who did or didn't die (if you find blood, it's going to be really hard to tell if it was a match to Rudolf or Krauss in particular, even though you can probably pin it down to "a male child of Kinzo").
Like you said, it should only say that: This profile got half of Kinzo's genes, plus it is XY so we can assume that it is a Male Child of Kinzo.
If you got two profiles of this, that's enough, you know that Krauss ans Rudolph were at least wounded and so targeted by the murderer, and like I said, you could sample for personnal effects of the victims (in their home, it should be full of it).
And I highly doubt that there is only one giant pool of blood, exept maybe for the cousins in Ep1. I see it more like in Ep2 where we can see different spot of bloods.

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If things were disastrous enough to nearly destroy some or all of the bodies, it's not going to help much to do DNA tests. If the scene were clearly a murder and there were clearly a suspect, then you might save the DNA just to prove that certain people were on the island as part of your case for murder. But Eva apparently wasn't even charged, so whatever happened the police didn't even think she could have done it. You can argue it's because she paid them off, but isn't it equally likely they just found no evidence to charge her with anything? Remember, everything we see in 1998 is filtered through Ange, and she's already concluded in her mind that Eva is a murderer whether that's true or not.
We don't know what happened between the events of 1986 and 1998, except Ange's highschool life. So we don't know how Eva succeed to prove her innocence to the court, but like you said, Ange thought Eva was the culprit since the begining, it didn't even went through her head that she was hurt like, or even more than her.
But what if she really isn't precisely the culprit? I always thought that it was weird because she was precisely the perfect culprit with all the motives, since she is the only survivor. Don't you find it weird that she precisely was the only survivor?? If you were the culprit, you would have left some people alive, for example Battler could gave her an alibi since he was with her when Nanjo was killed, and thus it could have proven that there was someone else at this time.
But she could also have paid the juges, but I got doubts, since it was highly gave publicity by the media, and so it would have been outrageous at the time.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:53   Link #1396
Ithekro
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Basic problem...we don't have enough information about October 6th, 1986 to justify why this wasn't considered a crime.
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Old 2009-10-17, 18:58   Link #1397
Antera Caramichael
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Eva has no incentive to preserve anything. If she's guilty, she doesn't want anyone to know. If she's innocent, she has to assume the murderer is dead because she was the only survivor. After that, who cares? She knows who died. It won't change anything or help anyone.

EDIT: I'm also highly suspicious of whether the entire incident was considered a crime at any point at all anywhere but the tabloids and in Ange's mind. They just let Ange keep a stake and Maria's diary? That sort of thing would definitely be evidence. If the police actually suspected crime, they'd never have let a stake be handed over to the family as personal effects.
If the invistigation is other, everything is sent back to family as "personnal effect" if it is asked I think.
Maria's diary would have invastegated, with search of fingerprints, copy out etc etc...
After that, it can be sent back as "personnal effects" I think, since it doesn't have anything else to say, if there is precisely something suspicious on it, like other fingerprints that don't come from family members.
But apparamently, the bottles were discovered a few years later no? So by the time, they was nothing suspicious by someone writing in the diary in order to make pleasure to a child...
For the stakes, it is more suspicious. Where were they found? If they were taken out and washed, then they were no more that decorations...
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Old 2009-10-17, 19:01   Link #1398
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Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
Basic problem...we don't have enough information about October 6th, 1986 to justify why this wasn't considered a crime.
Excuse me but the first thing someone sane would think in this case would search for a crime, since the mobile would be pretty evident: Eva come back alone from the island with a mountain of 10 tons of gold!!! Furthermore, there is no corpse, the wind blew them away? The Mansion exploded? Even if it was the case; who would not think the crime theory, that is the question!

Even with only that, I think that precisely it would lead people to the crime theory, plus the media plublicity.
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Old 2009-10-17, 19:04   Link #1399
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Basic problem...we don't have enough information about October 6th, 1986 to justify why this wasn't considered a crime.
It's weird isn't it? Because if I was a cop and I came onto the island and discovered the bodies as described in the visual novel, my first assumption would be that this was definitely a crime. Why would anyone describe it as an "accident" at all?

When we hear about Beatrice reviving and everyone being taken to Hell or the Golden Land, this refers to something happening to the bodies. This event is something that has the potential to kill people who are still living, and hides evidence. We've talked about natural disasters and things like that, but Ange couldn't blame Eva for an earthquake or a landslide. A fire might make sense as something that could happen due to the actions of a person or by accident, but I can't imagine how well that would work out after such a heavy rain. It's hard to imagine what it could be, but maybe there's some "event X" that would fit the bill...
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Old 2009-10-17, 19:05   Link #1400
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Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael View Post
But what if she really isn't precisely the culprit? I always thought that it was weird because she was precisely the perfect culprit with all the motives, since she is the only survivor.
Actually... I've always felt motive has been highly lacking in the characters most people here label as the "obvious culprits".

Even if Eva wanted the money and title enough to kill for it... she wanted them for her immediate family as well as herself.

Why would she kill her beloved George? Unless she actually does have multiple personalities (the existence of which are debatable anyway), it doesn't fit.

What's also telling is that Ange didn't believe Eva was the culprit, at the end... and consider her behavior in The Witches' Tanabata, as well... poor Eva.

Quote:
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It's hard to imagine what it could be, but maybe there's some "event X" that would fit the bill...
And this is probably very, very central to why the murders are being committed in the first place.
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