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Old 2009-12-28, 00:46   Link #221
KholdStare
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That's your opinion then. IMO, K-ON! is already like Lucky Star, where only Kagami/Mio fags stay faithful and other/Yui fans have moved on. Plus, while they aired at the same time during the year, Lucky Star had double the amount of episodes and ended way later than K-ON!, which left more time for impression and less time to forget.
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Old 2009-12-28, 00:54   Link #222
Demi.
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What does it take to revive lost popularity? The K-ON Ova should be more than enough to give them their lost popularity over the months it's been finished.

Either way, Ova or no Ova, I still think Mio is one tier above Kagami, and Yui is one tier above Tsukasa. Call it my 'gut' if you will, but that's the impression I get while frequenting other anime forums/sites, etc.
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Old 2009-12-28, 00:58   Link #223
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Originally Posted by KholdStare View Post
Wait, are you using ISML 2008 stats where no one participated to predict for ISML 2010? Also, Lucky Star was memorable. K-ON! is a one-hit wonder, like Saki. No one cares about K-ON! anymore.
2008 has more that a couple odd results, but they overall they painted a pretty decent picture of how strong the characters were. I'm pretty much used the 2008 results to generate my Aquqmarine prediction which wasn't too bad outside of Touhou overestimation and single incorrect necklace prediction. At the very least they show Lucky Star characters were stronger than they are now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KholdStare View Post
That's your opinion then. IMO, K-ON! is already like Lucky Star, where only Kagami/Mio fags stay faithful and other/Yui fans have moved on. Plus, while they aired at the same time during the year, Lucky Star had double the amount of episodes and ended way later than K-ON!, which left more time for impression and less time to forget.
This is all based on opinion and limited data. K-On characters have had very few ISML matches and some of them were wasted since they faced another K-On character. The one time Mio didn't fight a K-On character, she demolished a character many people expected to be a strong character. You think K-On character have already faded away too much to be at the top. I'm not sure what else I can respond with other than saying "I don't think K-On character will fade that quickly".
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Old 2009-12-28, 01:02   Link #224
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Okay, then we must be frequenting different sites, because no one talks about K-ON! anymore while Lucky Star is still popular. I'm actually hosting a pseudo moe competition that proves this somewhere, but the OVA will make a difference. My stats are based on April of 2010, and if no one watches the OVA.

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Originally Posted by Team Rocket Elite View Post
...I'm not sure what else I can respond with other than saying "I don't think K-On character will fade that quickly".
So it all comes down to what we believe will happen to K-ON!, right? Then further discussion is useless.
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Old 2009-12-28, 01:20   Link #225
chaosprophet
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Originally Posted by 0utf0xZer0 View Post
I'm not that familiar with who is already in for this year. Is Nadeko in? Because if not, she's definitely going to be on there.
Nadeko isn't in. You can check on the first post of this thread. There is a list of characters in.
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Old 2009-12-28, 01:22   Link #226
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Interesting list... I guess the OVA must have really boosted Eruruu's popularity to see her getting in via Saimoe. Not that I'm complaining since I dig kemonomimi.
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Old 2009-12-28, 01:37   Link #227
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Originally Posted by KholdStare View Post
I'm actually hosting a pseudo moe competition that proves this somewhere.
What.

I do not understand.
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Old 2009-12-28, 03:12   Link #228
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Nomination slots are now increased to twelve (12).

We hope this eases some of the stress of having to prioritize your characters.
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Old 2009-12-28, 03:31   Link #229
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One cannot make a statistic based on something that has not happened yet. (One can predict a future event based on existing numbers...not numbers that do not as of yet exist)

K-On will do what K-On will do. Assuming these back and forths don't scour people, they should do fine like their KyoAni cousins simply because more people know they exist and it is recent. That Yui made it to second place in Saimoe without any truely weird vote results complicating things on the way (cutting out the high rollers early...aside from Mio) should be at least a sign that they can hold there own in a fight. Also, though it was Japan, holding a relatively high vote total for the majority of the contest should show at least a mild following.

Mio is the one no one knows exactly how she'll fair. Based on the amounts of images produced, she should slaughter all in her way with moe. But she's not done this yet. It might be overconfidence on her fans part. The "Oh Mio will just win anyway" responce that tends to get the character to lose early on because of misplaced sympathy votes, hate votes, and lack of interest due to the expected overwhelming 75% vote sweep. It has happened before.

Ui will probably not be able to hold her own, but Azusa might be able to stand a bit. She's got the tough road of only being in half the series.

However all is on the whims of the anime watcher. The voters will be different by July than they are come March.

As for Eruruu...I think it was more the lack of popularity that Haruhi was getting towards the end of "Endless Eight" that caused that one to happen. Followed by the Haruhi-Yuki-Eruruu split vote in G Block that brought about that win. But G Block was just messed up overall anyway in 2009.
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Old 2009-12-28, 04:34   Link #230
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12 Slots? That's a lot. Eh well I guess this means I won't be replacing Kanaru Morimoto.

As for the last spot it's going to Akari from Miracle Train. I was thinking of voting for Chihaya from Magical Canan but with Miracle Train's last episode I can't very well not vote for her. (It's not like anyone has heard of Magical Canan anyway and it also has a hentai version which might confuse people.) Besides now I have characters from two whole recent series.

Spoiler for Planned Nominations:

Although the biggest hopes in my list are a girl who didn't make the main tournament last year and this. So yeah.
Edit: Also statistics are hard so I'm going to ignore them for now. That way I can still pretend that people like the same characters I do.
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Old 2009-12-28, 06:00   Link #231
wontaek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 0utf0xZer0 View Post
I suppose I should start looking at a list. Looking at Wonteak's list, I'm definitely going to be giving close consideration to Isara, Yuuko, Matsuri, and Kagura. EF's Chihiro is also quite likely - if I like a character enough to try my chances with a girl who cosplays her, I like her enough to nominate her for Saimoe.

I'm not that familiar with who is already in for this year. Is Nadeko in? Because if not, she's definitely going to be on there.

Debating whether to use some slots for long shots such as Iriya Kana, Mashiro Mito, Ochibana Ame, Teletha Testarossa, or Murasaki Kuhouin.
Thank you for your considerations. Sengoku Nadeko is not in yet. She is one of the candidates for being a character that ' Everyone thought she was already in or make it easily, thus left out of their list, and ended up not getting sufficient nomination. '


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Originally Posted by Team Rocket Elite View Post
I can't agree with that at all. Hanyuu has wins over Ayu, Ami, Louise, Illya, Fuuko, Sakura, Minori, Rena and Sayuri. All of those characters would easily beat Saten or at least be the favorite to win. Hanyuu also has a couple of fluke high tier performances like coming close to beating Taiga and Nanoha and satying above 45% against Fate.
To tell the truth, Hanyuu is fading out of memory little faster than other Higurashi characters so she would have trouble beating any of the characters you mentioned now. Given the rising status of Railgun and Saten ( in the Anizone poll for the ep. 13, Koreans gave Saten the best figure award, another evidence of how popular Saten is in Korea ), she will give anyone mentioned here a good match and will not lose by more than 10%. Saten gives 'normal person moe', a relief from all the super-power moes and tsundere moes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KholdStare View Post
We're running out of avatars, so only 2.

Today's Fantasy. Which characters do you think would win in 2010? Percentages are welcome.




Tohsaka Rin 56 over Okazaki Ushio 44 Error margin +- 4% : Actually I thought of giving bigger error margin in case Korean Fan girls showed up in hordes. Okazaki Ushio supremely benefited from lucky drawing coupled with extreme complacency of Fujibayashi Kyou fans, most of whom that ignored my cry for help in Best Moe 2009. Let's look at it this way. Among hormonal male voters Ushio will attract less than 30, if not 20%, of their votes when pitted against hotties like Rin or Kyou, both with renowned 'thighs'. Among females who consider themselves strong willed and independently minded, Rin would still win. Still Clannad fans and those who find cute babies irresistible are numerous as well, and hard core Clannad fans were willing to put Ushio over Kyou for the story related reasons. In end, Rin will win, but it can either be a blowout or be a very close match depending on which group was willing to make itself known. Above numbers are based on voting groups for 2nd half of DE 2009 as I don't expect those zealots to come to ISML yet.

Tsukasa 52 over Yui 48 Error margin +- 3% : This is tough. I know Tsukasa has some rabid fans. Her performance in 2009 was tainted by certain canine fan from 2008 who made many hesitate on campaigning for Tsukasa. Still, if K-On is a phenomenon, Lucky Star has grown to religion like status in Japan and perhaps in Korea as well. Even now, people will be more excited about new Lucky Star episode compared to new K-On episode, judging from the rather subdued reaction people had about ep.14 of K-on being leaked out 1 month early by Korean Cable TV station. Although the two series are close formula wise, Lucky Star offers more diverse personalities and situations, giving people more to think about. I believe Lucky Star to have better staying power and if this match is held late in 2010, with no new materials other than that ep 14. to affect it, I think Tsukasa fans will hold on for victory while Yui fans wavers.


Quote:
Originally Posted by chaosprophet View Post
Well with the noms really near, I guess it's safe to say that this is my final list:

Evangeline Athanasia Katherine McDowell - Mahou Sensei Negima!
Kagurazaka Asuna - Mahou Sensei Negima!
Hasegawa Chisame - Mahou Sensei Negima!
Mizunashi Akari - Aria
Chiba Kirino - Bamboo Blade
Perrine-H. Clostermann - Strike Witches
Hecate - Shakugan no Shana
Kate - Sketchbook
Yin - Darker than Black
Sawako - Kimi ni Todoke

I'm very sorry but those following three that I planned to nominate before are going to be left behind:

Kobato - Kobato
Yuuki Mikan - To-Love-Ru
Akatsutsumi Momoko - Demashitaa! Powerpuff Girls Z




I greately approve!! :P


I approve!


A Kirino was left behind, so sad ;-;.
Cheer up! Expansion to 12 slots means Kirino is in for me. In fact, I chose Kirino after seeing your list.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
One cannot make a statistic based on something that has not happened yet. (One can predict a future event based on existing numbers...not numbers that do not as of yet exist)

K-On will do what K-On will do. Assuming these back and forths don't scour people, they should do fine like their KyoAni cousins simply because more people know they exist and it is recent. That Yui made it to second place in Saimoe without any truely weird vote results complicating things on the way (cutting out the high rollers early...aside from Mio) should be at least a sign that they can hold there own in a fight. Also, though it was Japan, holding a relatively high vote total for the majority of the contest should show at least a mild following.

Mio is the one no one knows exactly how she'll fair. Based on the amounts of images produced, she should slaughter all in her way with moe. But she's not done this yet. It might be overconfidence on her fans part. The "Oh Mio will just win anyway" responce that tends to get the character to lose early on because of misplaced sympathy votes, hate votes, and lack of interest due to the expected overwhelming 75% vote sweep. It has happened before.

Ui will probably not be able to hold her own, but Azusa might be able to stand a bit. She's got the tough road of only being in half the series.

However all is on the whims of the anime watcher. The voters will be different by July than they are come March.

As for Eruruu...I think it was more the lack of popularity that Haruhi was getting towards the end of "Endless Eight" that caused that one to happen. Followed by the Haruhi-Yuki-Eruruu split vote in G Block that brought about that win. But G Block was just messed up overall anyway in 2009.
Erunga really has some hardened fans. We need someone to make that 'Queen of the forks' aria video. Also isn't the girls in Space Battleship Yamato more of Maetel precursor?
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Last edited by wontaek; 2009-12-28 at 06:28.
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Old 2009-12-28, 11:35   Link #232
KholdStare
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wontaek said exactly what I wanted to say about Yui and Tsukasa.
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Old 2009-12-28, 14:13   Link #233
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Double post ftw.

Today's Fantasy. Which characters do you think would win in 2010? Percentages are welcome.



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Old 2009-12-28, 15:00   Link #234
Eater of All
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Spoiler for Tidy:
Isumi (56%) > Chiaki (44%) - Minami-ke's been a while. Furthermore, while Chiaki may still be popular in Japan, I doubt she'd hold her own in ISML. I can't foresee Isumi being too strong, but she's certainly strong enough and fresh enough in people's memories to defeat Chiaki.
Azusa (52%) > Momoko (48%) - Well ain't this a hard nut to crack. Azusa and Momoko were like the most popular secondary characters in some of the most popular series of 2009. Given what I've seen in various places though, Azusa presence is a bit more prevalent than Momoko's, so I'll go with her.
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Old 2009-12-28, 15:02   Link #235
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2
2

Chiaki once got out ranked by Osaka in a preliminary match. I wasn't too sure how strong Isumi would be other than being a lot weaker than Nagi, Maria and Hinagiku. I decide on putting her slightly above Chiaki based on Ayumu from 2008 but I don't have much confidence in that choice.

Azusa stomp Stealth Momo into the ground. K-On main characters are a few tiers of strength above Saki characters.

Minami Chiaki (MK) [47.35%] vs Saginomiya Isumi (HnG) [52.65%]
Touyoko Momoko (SAKI) [25.29%] vs Nakano Azusa (K-ON) [74.71%]
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Old 2009-12-28, 16:01   Link #236
wontaek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KholdStare View Post
Double post ftw.

Today's Fantasy. Which characters do you think would win in 2010? Percentages are welcome.



Isumi 52 - Chiaki 48, Error margin +-3 % : Chiaki has her share of fervent fans, but Hayate fans are much more numerous compared to Minamike, and HnG has better chance of attracting female voters as well, which mean more diversified fan porfolio. Unless some Japanese fans conspire to do something to make Chiaki win, I have to give edge to Isumi

Azunyan no. 1 55 - Stealth Momo 45 Error margin +- 4 % : Momoko and Saki also has her share of zealots, but the following result from Final 4 in KBM 2009 tipped the scale for Azusa. You can't reach final 4 in any moe tournament based on pure luck. Azusa also did rather respectfully against the Double Crown winner Aisaka Taiga

Group 1 / 2009-10-05 00:00:00 ~ 2009-10-05 23:30:00 / Top 1 characters will proceed
1
-
Taiga Aisaka</span>
Toradora!
1394 (52.7%)

2
-
Azusa Nakano
K-ON!
1251 (47.3%)


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Old 2009-12-28, 16:23   Link #237
Demi.
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All I'll say is Azusa is going to destroy Momoko. Hard. 70-30
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Old 2009-12-28, 16:26   Link #238
Ithekro
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Actually Azusa's done fairly well again Taiga twice. On the same day.

Saimoe 2009

Final F Block
Taiga: 825

Azusa: 711
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Old 2009-12-28, 16:30   Link #239
hinakatbklyn
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If going on just looks alone (Moe) I say Isumi and Azusa (both 60-40)

Staying Power (long after a series is finished) Isumi might be 70-30 but Azusa and Momoko might be too close to call. (Both come from extremely popular series but could lose steam in about one year). Isumi might be the only one out of these 4 who could have staying power.

Saki managed to get 4 into J-saimoe quarterfinals while K-on only got 1. But it took only 1 K-on rep to get past all saki rep's bowing only to taiga.
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Old 2009-12-28, 18:03   Link #240
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2009 DE5
Ayanami Rei (EVA) - 1528 (57.75%)
Miyanaga Saki (SAKI) - 1118 (42.25%)

Even if Momoko is stronger than Saki, it's not going to be enough to compete with Azusa.
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