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Old 2010-08-03, 15:14   Link #3861
Renall
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Well, as far as we know, no one checks the parlor again until George goes there several hours later, so that would hardly be a problem.
That's not the point. The point is, how can anyone be sure of that? The instant someone, anyone peeks into the room and doesn't see Shannon there, she is exposed. She cannot know whether anyone has done so if she isn't there, because she wasn't there. And if you can't be sure if anyone saw or didn't see evidence that you were feigning death, going back to feigning is the worst idea you can possibly have. Come on now, I thought you believed she was smart.

Plus, she's still dead. Or have we decided red doesn't mean anything already?
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Also, you try to make it sound ridiculous that Shannon could have gone from the parlor to the chapel without being found, but that wouldn't even have been hard. After all, it would have taken the rest of the group quite some time to go to the 4 rooms between the parlor and the chapel, and all of those rooms were inside the mansion itself. Meanwhile, the parlor now has a broken window that anyone can leave through. She just needs to walk out of that, head for the chapel (it's dark outside, so she probably doesn't even need to sneak around), and dress up as Kanon in the 10-20 minutes it takes the others to search through the other closed rooms. In fact, that might be why this long chain of closed rooms was set up in the first place.
Let's just go over, in painstaking detail, all of the things necessary to set this up for a hypothetical Shkanon:
  • First, no one must be made aware of her dual existence on the 4th. Even the slightest chance of exposure could create a knowledge break in the closed room chain even if she manages a perfect swap, as her presence as Kanon will instantly tip off the other person that "Shannon" wasn't dead or was a dummy corpse.
  • Naturally, her reaction to this inescapable necessity is to swap outfits and roles multiple times throughout the 4th, when her presence is frequently needed and thus her absence as Shannon at the very least would be noteworthy if she were ever delayed as Kanon.
  • Of course, she'll be able to perfectly determine when she is needed in either guise. After all, there's no one present who has been gone for 6 years and whose actions are thus entirely unpredictable? Oh wait, there is. Shit.
  • Well, at least she can be surly and break off as Kanon and look unfriendly. It's not like Kanon is involved with anyone who might otherwise delay him. Oh wait, he is. Shit.
  • Also, she is frequently passing back and forth between buildings, which means that not only must she have multiple Kanon/Shannon costumes in both buildings, she has to always have immediate access to one at the appropriate times and must never be observed by anyone who might otherwise tattle on her, meaning either Genji and Gohda are aware of her nature or so dense or fortuitous that they have never walked in on this spectacle and thought anything was wrong, or accidentally found a Shannon dress with fake boobs stuffed in it lying around that they could not explain. Because you know, Genji is very unperceptive.
  • She must make sure no one is aware of the closed room chain being constructed throughout the night. So either she must keep the adults in the dining room unaware and undistracted for as long as humanly possible, or she must initiate all seven of them into her plan, a plan which also includes burning the corpse of Kinzo. Krauss and Natsuhi won't have any objections to that, I'm sure.
  • Oh, and if anyone goes anywhere she didn't predict in the middle of the night she's potentially screwed. "Hey, why don't we continue the conference in the parlor? I need a comfier chair!" Shit.
  • She has to find a position as Shannon, construct a closed room, and lie there until she's discovered. She cannot be absolutely certain she or Kinzo will be discovered first, so she's guessing. If for any reason anyone decides to go to the chapel first, or everyone splits up to check different places, she is screwed, and she will have no way of knowing where anyone has gone, as she is stuck in a room and can't move around lest she be seen.
  • Once discovered, she must not be confirmed alive. This requires either that anyone who observes her is in on the fakery, or that she is incredibly good at it and can trust them not to look too close.
  • "Hideyoshi, Rosa. You stay here in the parlor and call the kids over. We're going to check the other rooms." Shit.
  • Completely undetected despite being totally unaware of where anyone except the adults might be, she must get up, leave the parlor, go somewhere she has a Kanon costume stashed, change, reach the chapel, get inside, and set herself up as "dead" before the adults arrive. By the way, she has no way of knowing whether anyone already checked the chapel, even if they didn't get inside. She's not been in a position to observe.
  • Battler wakes up at 6am, restless, and decides to go for an early morning stroll around the grounds or hit up the kitchen at the mansion for a snack from Gohda. Shit.
  • Once in the chapel, she must again not be detected as either dead or Shannon.
  • "Rudolf, lock up the chapel with that key we have. We can at least preserve Kanon-kun until the police arrive." Shit.
  • Now she must get back, hoping against hope that the adults do not immediately reconvene in the parlor, because she has no way to get up, leave, avoid detection, change into Shannon, re-fake her dead appearance, and get back in the parlor in the exact position she was in previously.
  • "Maybe we should gather up the bodies. It isn't right to just leave them around." Shit.
  • She must be present in the parlor when George arrives. How does she know when George will arrive? How does she know he will arrive at all? How does she know anything right now? If she leaves to check, how does she know somebody didn't check inside the empty parlor?
Apparently, Shkanon learned her "doing random shit for no reason and pulling it off without a hitch" trick well from Kinzo, because she is superhuman.
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Also, if Shannon is the culprit, then both EP1 and EP2 hint that she has a fake corpse somewhere (and she has the fake breasts and hair ready if Shkanon is true). Once the initial inspection of the corpses was completed, she could switch out with this other corpse. The family knows not to disturb the crime scene, so they aren't likely to check it too closely.
Whoa whoa whoa, wait a minute:

1) Who is this corpse?

2) Why isn't it in the cousins' room in ep6 per Erika's outline?

If you try to tell me it's a mannequin I may digitally laugh in your digital face, just fair warning.
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By the way, as I've noted before, it's very possible that nearly every single person who saw those fake corpses realized that they were fake. Just look at their reactions later on.
Okay so they're in on the corpses being fake - except Kinzo, who cannot possibly be - but also completely unaware of one person posing as two. OK.
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Old 2010-08-03, 15:33   Link #3862
k//eternal
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Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Every time you say "I wouldn't put it past Shkanon", Shkanontrice eats some of your brain cells.
Please think of your brain cells.
So that explains the smashed heads!

My brain will never be safe from the ninja witch, especially if I can't make ironic statements

EDIT: Well, might as well get a bit more serious and brainstorm the problem a little? Let's see where it goes.

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1) Who is this corpse?

2) Why isn't it in the cousins' room in ep6 per Erika's outline?
A full fake corpse isn't necessary. She could stick the Shannon outfit, wig, and pads on pretty much anyone. I mean, we're talking about what must be a pretty convincing disguise anyway, right? The Kanon wear is under all that stuff, I guess. And the corpse... Who is it? Haven't really thought about it. But in the meantime, how about Erika (washed up on the shore, dead) or Kinzo (that disguise is REALLY good and the head smash was gross enough to distract everyone)?

It doesn't seem like she needed the Shannon outfit anymore after that anyway. I don't remember the situation in EP3 too clearly at this point; it's clearly different in that she "revives", but the context is fuzzy to me now.

Last edited by k//eternal; 2010-08-03 at 15:49.
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Old 2010-08-03, 15:50   Link #3863
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Old 2010-08-03, 15:55   Link #3864
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I find the degree of margin for failure so ridiculous that this supposed hyper-intelligent Shkanon would not be so foolish as to try it. Ep1/2 is a better example of this; kill one, leave the other alive, fake his death later. Or simply have one disappear outright.

This proposal for ep3 goes beyond "risky" to "outright irresponsible," and if we're willing to buy that Beatrice gambles, that takes her out of the realm of "canny risk-taker" to "overconfident idiot." To then say nothing blows up in her face out of authorial fiat is to say the story can be as ludicrous as ryukishi wants it to be, because everyone will coincidentally behave exactly as necessary to make the culprit's plot work. That breaks several fundamental tenets of authorial trust and mystery novel good taste.
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Old 2010-08-03, 16:02   Link #3865
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
I find the degree of margin for failure so ridiculous that this supposed hyper-intelligent Shkanon would not be so foolish as to try it. Ep1/2 is a better example of this; kill one, leave the other alive, fake his death later. Or simply have one disappear outright.

This proposal for ep3 goes beyond "risky" to "outright irresponsible," and if we're willing to buy that Beatrice gambles, that takes her out of the realm of "canny risk-taker" to "overconfident idiot." To then say nothing blows up in her face out of authorial fiat is to say the story can be as ludicrous as ryukishi wants it to be, because everyone will coincidentally behave exactly as necessary to make the culprit's plot work. That breaks several fundamental tenets of authorial trust and mystery novel good taste.
I'm sorry, but you're blowing this way out of proportion. Most of the ways you raise for her plan going wrong are extremely unlikely, and some of the ways you raise really did go wrong when she laid out her plan. As I said, if she was planning on killing everyone, she would have to take big risks and hope that she understood their pattern of behavior well enough to predict their movements.
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Old 2010-08-03, 16:02   Link #3866
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
This proposal for ep3 goes beyond "risky" to "outright irresponsible," and if we're willing to buy that Beatrice gambles, that takes her out of the realm of "canny risk-taker" to "overconfident idiot." To then say nothing blows up in her face out of authorial fiat is to say the story can be as ludicrous as ryukishi wants it to be, because everyone will coincidentally behave exactly as necessary to make the culprit's plot work. That breaks several fundamental tenets of authorial trust and mystery novel good taste.
However, that's a perfect description of what LD did in arc 5.
And it even includes how the detective herself, Erika, coincidentally behaved.
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Old 2010-08-03, 16:06   Link #3867
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I'm sorry, but you're blowing this way out of proportion. Most of the ways you raise for her plan going wrong are extremely unlikely, and some of the ways you raise really did go wrong when she laid out her plan. As I said, if she was planning on killing everyone, she would have to take big risks and hope that she understood their pattern of behavior well enough to predict their movements.
If the plan is to kill everyone, why not just let the explosion do it?

Or, if the plan is to kill everyone individually, why leave a body around to scare people? Have everyone who dies disappear. Creep people out. Pick them off slowly.

And none of the things I raised are unreasonable considerations of things that could have gone wrong. Unless everyone's behavior is scripted, and they don't know the script has gone wrong, and that requires a lot of suspended disbelief with Kinzo's body present, then I cannot but see these things as essential considerations to a faking culprit.

One person cannot observe a dozen and maintain his/her presence in a mostly public location where he/she is believed to exist as a dead body. It's asking too much logistically. One person would have endless trouble with this. It defies common and literary sense.
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Old 2010-08-03, 16:11   Link #3868
chronotrig
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If the plan is to kill everyone, why not just let the explosion do it?
Shkanon might not be the one behind the explosion, for one.

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Or, if the plan is to kill everyone individually, why leave a body around to scare people? Have everyone who dies disappear. Creep people out. Pick them off slowly.
If the culprit's goal is to make Battler believe in magic, that wouldn't work. The point of magic is showing an impossible result, then arguing that only magic could have led to that result. You end up with the same thing as EP4, the game in which Battler rejected the possibility of magic most strongly.

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And none of the things I raised are unreasonable considerations of things that could have gone wrong. Unless everyone's behavior is scripted, and they don't know the script has gone wrong, and that requires a lot of suspended disbelief with Kinzo's body present, then I cannot but see these things as essential considerations to a faking culprit.
There are reasons guiding the actions of the people at every step. For the most part, it leaves them little to no options, for the reasons I've laid out. If we use their actions from the other games as an example, then we could predict that they would act exactly as they did with moderate certainty.
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Old 2010-08-03, 16:14   Link #3869
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Shkanon might not be the one behind the explosion, for one.
Of course.
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If the culprit's goal is to make Battler believe in magic, that wouldn't work. The point of magic is showing an impossible result, then arguing that only magic could have led to that result. You end up with the same thing as EP4, the game in which Battler rejected the possibility of magic most strongly.
If that is the goal of the culprit. How do we know that is the goal of the culprit? We don't. For all we know, the fakery is the part that's targeted at Battler. We also don't know that the goal is to make him believe anything at all. The goal could be to make him remember his sin, to show him something, to get him to do something or construct something, any number of things.

The murderer could be something entirely different.
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There are reasons guiding the actions of the people at every step. For the most part, it leaves them little to no options, for the reason's I've laid out. If we use their actions from the other games as an example, then we could predict that they would act exactly as they did with moderate certainty.
Your reasons stand up poorly to common sense. Where the two are in conflict, when I trust a writer to be competent, I yield to common sense. Too much can go wrong for a reasonable person to plan it out in such a fashion, especially when he or she has the luxury of time to set up nearly any scenario desired.
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Old 2010-08-03, 16:21   Link #3870
chronotrig
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Your reasons stand up poorly to common sense. Where the two are in conflict, when I trust a writer to be competent, I yield to common sense. Too much can go wrong for a reasonable person to plan it out in such a fashion, especially when he or she has the luxury of time to set up nearly any scenario desired.
I don't think so. You've made it clear that you consider me a moron, but I think I've backed up my arguments with logic so far.
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Old 2010-08-03, 16:31   Link #3871
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I don't think so. You've made it clear that you consider me a moron, but I think I've backed up my arguments with logic so far.
I disagree with you on both counts. I simply do not think this is a sensible construct for resolving the two bodies problem of ep3. There are certainly other ways Shkanon could have dispensed with this. "Convinced the adults to lie about Kanon" would be far simpler than other rigamarole, and would greatly limit the number of people who might accidentally look into the parlor. One would need only explain how he/she did so, which could be referred back to ep2 where "Beatrice" appears to have convinced them of something already.

That makes far more sense, though it still suffers a bit from the implausibility of Kinzo. He's a spanner in the works... errr, corpse in the incinerator.
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Old 2010-08-03, 16:32   Link #3872
chronotrig
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I disagree with you on both counts. I simply do not think this is a sensible construct for resolving the two bodies problem of ep3. There are certainly other ways Shkanon could have dispensed with this. "Convinced the adults to lie about Kanon" would be far simpler than other rigamarole, and would greatly limit the number of people who might accidentally look into the parlor. One would need only explain how he/she did so, which could be referred back to ep2 where "Beatrice" appears to have convinced them of something already.

That makes far more sense, though it still suffers a bit from the implausibility of Kinzo. He's a spanner in the works... errr, corpse in the incinerator.
If so, then why construct the complicated closed room chain?
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Old 2010-08-03, 16:48   Link #3873
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If so, then why construct the complicated closed room chain?
If it's for Battler's sake, why construct it if he's not going to be the one to break it anyway? At least he's present at the chapel and shed. He basically only hears about the closed room chain in ep3. A super cynic could easily just say everybody was talked into lying about the closed room chain and be done with it, but then you'd be saying that lie was only constructed for the sake of Meta-Battler.
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Old 2010-08-03, 16:50   Link #3874
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Also, if Shannon is the culprit, then both EP1 and EP2 hint that she has a fake corpse somewhere (and she has the fake breasts and hair ready if Shkanon is true). Once the initial inspection of the corpses was completed, she could switch out with this other corpse. The family knows not to disturb the crime scene, so they aren't likely to check it too closely.
No. It creates a problem that you feel can't be solved without a fake corpse. It doesn't hint at any fake corpses in any way shape or form. Well not any that don't count as body double tricks.
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Old 2010-08-03, 17:04   Link #3875
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If it's for Battler's sake, why construct it if he's not going to be the one to break it anyway? At least he's present at the chapel and shed. He basically only hears about the closed room chain in ep3. A super cynic could easily just say everybody was talked into lying about the closed room chain and be done with it, but then you'd be saying that lie was only constructed for the sake of Meta-Battler.
Possibly because it isn't that easy to convince everyone to go along with the lie willingly. Battler trusts them enough to believe what they say (and he later sees evidence corroborating this theory when he finds Shannon's corpse, and possibly more), but it would be too difficult to convince everyone to trick Battler, especially later on, when the crimes were no longer possible to confuse for fakes.

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No. It creates a problem that you feel can't be solved without a fake corpse. It doesn't hint at any fake corpses in any way shape or form.
I'm talking about the fact that in both EP1 and EP2, the only corpse whose face isn't clearly seen by Battler is Shannon, and in both cases, Battler meets someone who shouldn't be alive at the end. So, if there is a fake corpse, it's likely to be hers. Plus, if Shkanon is true, then she has all the means to disguise anything as Shannon.

Also, EP5 strongly hints that it's possible for someone to wash ashore alive, but that they don't do that in EP1-4. So, it may be that they wash ashore dead in those games.
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Old 2010-08-03, 17:16   Link #3876
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I'm talking about the fact that in both EP1 and EP2, the only corpse whose face isn't clearly seen by Battler is Shannon, and in both cases, Battler meets someone who shouldn't be alive at the end.
Hold on a minute. In episode 2 he definitely sees her face I mean he picks her head up so he can look at it, but he doesn't get to see George and Gohda up close at all. Rosa keeps him from doing that.
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Old 2010-08-03, 17:18   Link #3877
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Hold on a minute. In episode 2 he definitely sees her face, but he doesn't get to see George and Gohda up close at all. Because Rosa keeps him from doing that.
It's specifically described that Shannon was lying face-down in the corner of the room, and that he only sees her face for a moment, is instantly horrified at what he's done, and grossed out by the guts pouring out of her. So yes, he saw it, but not clearly at all. The game specifically makes a point of this, so it's probably not a coincidence.
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Old 2010-08-03, 17:27   Link #3878
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Also, EP5 strongly hints that it's possible for someone to wash ashore alive, but that they don't do that in EP1-4. So, it may be that they wash ashore dead in those games.
If there's a disguised corpse, I don't think it could be one that washed up on the shore. To pull this off, the criminal(s) must have meticulously planned out every detail- even more so if Shkannon is true, because that means there are a million more things that can go wrong.

That's not to say it's impossible that someone else's corpse is disguised, but in my opinion, the corpse would have had to have been obtained before the conference. Killing one of the other -on servants makes the most sense to me, but your (and ryukishi's) mileage may vary. To me, the less the culprit(s) left to chance, the better.
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Old 2010-08-03, 17:31   Link #3879
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The game specifically makes a point of this, so it's probably not a coincidence.
Because looking at a puddle of blood pouring out of someone's brain is completely horrifying...? Ryukishi likes that stuff.

If this is a clue as you say so is being horrified at seeing people's intestines thrown about with candy.
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Old 2010-08-03, 17:31   Link #3880
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If there's a disguised corpse, I don't think it could be one that washed up on the shore. To pull this off, the criminal(s) must have meticulously planned out every detail- even more so if Shkannon is true, because that means there are a million more things that can go wrong.
Actually, this reminds me of one of Agatha Christie's most famous novels. The culprit clearly went to great lengths to plan out the crime, but the weapon used was something he didn't even know about until about an hour before the actual murder took place. Christie got around this by saying that he'd brought another weapon for the job, but then switched to the second one when he found it there because it would be completely untraceable to him.

Since Ryuukishi has mirrored Agatha Christie's works so many times, it's possible that this is the same thing again. The culprit planned to use something else (is she's Shkanon, she'd almost have to make a dummy), but then found a dead or dying person close to the time of the crimes and decided to include her in her plans. After all, a recently dead corpse would be much more convincing than any dummy, no matter how well made.

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If this is a clue as you say so is being horrified at seeing people's intestines thrown about with candy.
Everyone got a good long look at those people. In Shannon's case, it specifically says that he only got to look at her face for an instant. Plus, he already thought he knew what he'd find before he did so, meaning that it would be easier for his imagination to take control. Also, he was concerned about what the wound was, not whether it was Shannon.
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