North Korea Crisis
 

Considering what North Korea has recently done, I think this topic definitely deserves its own thread. Here are some links that will provide valuable information on the situation:

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718

N. Korea ejects IAEA inspectors from Yongbyon nuclear facilities
North Korea Expelling US Monitors From Reactor Site

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North Korea is now going out of control. Not just that they dare defy the international community's strong protests and test-fired a ballistic missile in the disguise of a "satellite", they are now going to improve their missile and nuclear capabilities due to their failed "satellite" test. This is clearly a severe violation of the United Nations Security Councile Resolution 1718. They are now going to stop six-party talks from advancing by not participating in it which means that the six-party talks concept was trash to begin with.

Whose idea was it to have six-party talks? Oh wait, isn't it the same country that is currently urging the world to remain calm about North Korea's recent defiances? It is also the same country that is unwilling to cooperate on the issue of North Korea at the United Nations Security Council, forcing Japan and the United States to stick to a press statement rather than a presidential statement meaning that it is merely an act of drama rather an actual effective plan to pressure North Korea to cease their hostile attitudes. China is definitely an obstacle to resolving the North Korea crisis and that if this very fact is ignored, North Korea will definitely be encouraged to continue their acts of aggression from now on..

Unfortunately, nothing can be done at this moment since China and Russia are both veto-wielding members of the UNSC. In this case, the United Nations Security Council is useless.

I do acknowledge that there are many different types of voices on AnimeSuki and that many of you are just as knowledgeable as I am when it comes to global issues, so what do you guys think of this issue?

I think this issue is the same as the middle east one. No solution on sight coz some parties simply don't keep their word and resort to provocation. As usual the UNSC is useless.

No offense, but this has all been going on for quite a while. See, for example, 1998's launch of a Taepodong-1 missile over Japan, 2006's failed launch of a Taepodong-2, or 2006's partially-successful nuclear test.

North Korea's government likes to be a provocateur, for the propaganda coups these events score at home, and the supposed bargaining-chip it gives them when dealing with other countries. Truth be told, all the saber-rattling really hurts their position, but with the politics of Kim Jong-il, the reasoning doesn't exactly have to be sound for a policy to be embraced. It's all about glorifying Dear Leader, and with total control over the national media, they create their own reality, while refusing to acknowledge that of the outside world.

Russia and China find it useful to have North Korea keeping the US+allies a bit off-balance. Personally, I think its a bit of "tiger-by-the-tail" gamesmanship.
North Korea has been pulling these stunts periodically since *I* was a toddler 50 years ago. At least once a decade, they get a bit looney like this, because the leadership wants to feel important, they want to maintain control within, there's a LOT of hubris as well as practical calculation in these apparently "damn fool" stunts.

It is fascinating to watch the remaining countries and small sectors of the planet who have such a vastly divergent interpretation of reality....

i don't think their view of reality is that off. This is all calculated to get aid for their regime. The crazier they act the more aid they can get and the less concession they give up. It its like the puffer fish that itself up to act like they are bigger then they really are. It is a act and everyone knows it and it is also a act that is wearing thin.

I think the guy is crazy enough to want to go out with a bang (literally)

Kim aint getting any younger and he's the absolute epitome of one who wants to remembered and talked about for a long time to come.

Unstable dictators need to be controlled at all costs, and frankly the UN seem incapable.

Like with Cuba, this probably won't be resolved by outside forces. If North Korea is going to change, that change is going to come from the country itself. Watch the leadership transition; that will tell you where it's all going.

Bottom line: nobody wants to fight North Korea, especially not since they have enough missiles to turn Seoul into a sea of fire, and also do a lot of damage to Japan. China also stands to gain from North Korea remaining a separate country because South Korea is an US ally, in which case reunification = US bases on China's border = very frightening to China from a geopolitical point of view. It's like Russia's fear of US bases in the Caucasus.

He might but i don't anyone else in the NK gov't wants to die with him.

ah, no one wants to fight NK not becuase they are afriad of his army or weapon arsenal, which is ill equip and out of date. They are afraid of what happens after they defeat the current NK gov't, who is going to pay the trillions needed to fix that country? you have 10 to 20 million poor illiteral refugees who needs to feed and taught to live in the 21st century. The whole country needs to be rebuilt form scratch.

You underestimate the damage North Korea can do.

You overestimate that damage. Still, both you and Xellos-_^ have very valid points here. North Korea can do a lot of damage to Seoul, and the cost of rebuilding the North after the inevitable victory would be enormous.

I don't understand. If the US wants NK be a wasteland, it will be, even without the use of nuclear weapons. :confused: And it'll happen so fast the NK won't be able to do anything.

Or Japan should be allowed to rearm herself :)

WHAT????their literacy rate is like 99% just like every other communist countries. They do care a lot about education, also after all they are Asian :D.

And their engineering capability is top nought , not many countries in the world can handle nuclear reactor, missile etc like them , if only they spend all of those R&D money on other "peaceful" technology :'(

Personally I think it is so unfair, Pakistan and India can test anything they want and nobody gives a damn, but when NK farted a little and everyone makes a big deal about it. :rolleyes:

I am egalitarian too, but N.K. hasn't shown any proof that they wouldn't just use the nuclear power for weapons, quite simply I can't believe they would use them for anything else. The development for energy could probably only be used for a portion of the capital, no where else given the shitty infrastructure the country has. As much as I am not into large power play politics NK is NOT a regime that needs nukes.

A large-scale operation will likely be detected before it is executed. If North Korea believes that an attack is imminent, there's no telling what they'll do. Again, people tend to underestimate North Korea's combat capability; that's easy to do on an internet message board, but in the real world, with millions of lives at stake, would you really risk it?

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita.../dprk-dark.htm

A page with a satellite image of the region at night. You can tell where North Korea's border with South Korea and China are, because that's where the lights stop. Not completely relevent, but something to consider.

Hmm, I believe that nuclear subs are invisible? I don't "risk" it because I believe that the US army can. The problem is if the US hits NK too hard (even without nuclear weapons), it will make the image of the US look really, really bad. And yes, no one wants to rebuild that country.

You might be able to get away with nuking North Korea preemptively, but no one is going to consider that unless a nuclear attack from North Korea is imminent; the humanitarian costs would be catastrophic, and the US would be seen as a nuclear war monger.

Even if you could get that first strike in, it'll take prolonged air campaign to take out the North Korean artillery pointed at Seoul. Or nukes, which obvously have problems of their own.

As another individual, I dare face North Korea heads on. However, people who have millions of people's lives on their shoulders will not be able to do reckless actions meaning that this is definitely not worth the risk!

Perhaps, I am over-estimating North Korea's military capacity but the fact is that even a mere attack from their Rodong-1 arsenal could deal some damage on Japanese mainland, considering that missile intercepter technology isn't very advanced. Unless you can intercept every missile launched, there will always be a chance of casualty and property damage. Thus, it is best to take the situation more cautiously but doing nothing isn't right either..

Truth is that North Korea didn't just started their military ambitions but decades back. Only problem is that there are new developments and these new developments are definitely not a good sign. They are going to restart their Yongbyon nuclear facility very soon.

The fact remains that no one wants to pick up the bill on bringing NK to the 21st century. Not SK, not Japan, not the US, not the PRC. As I said before, it's the elephant in the living room which no one wants to talk about, but the thing refuses to go away.

Some seem to be missing the point that a pre-emptive submarine launched nuke strike would slaughter possibly millions of people whose only "crime" is to be born in the wrong country. That's exactly the sort of talk that justifies NK paranoia and makes one wonder who the "good guys" were supposed to be...

There is no point to discussing this. No matter what you think about the issue, nothing will change. This isn't something you can simply vote on and get your way, you can only sit back and watch.

Worrying is pointless. If you say "We will get nuked (if X happens)" and we do get nuked, what will it matter if you were right if you're dead? I'm not going to waste my time worrying about something that I can't do anything about or to prepare for.

That's what I think

You could say "nuking NK is wrong," but simply acknowledging that won't change if it will or won't happen.

Literacy, means that the person is taught not just to read and write, but think objectively as well as subjectively for both himself and others. N.K removed the last one to keep control over their people.

Just in case you don't know, I find that the education system in Asia is more focused on feeding pure information and facts rather than teaching the students how to think, derive and understand. I was given detention for arguing against determinism (statistics) in Maths class in middle school. My phrase of "everything can be determined, if the human race has the ACTUAL capacity to do so" earned me that stay-back-after-school and alot of shit from my classmates. And most of the students just study for the sake for passing in exams and getting into university.

If everyone just want to learn and nobody wants to understand, just for the sake of personal pride/glory/gain, nor abuse knowledge in a way which could benefit in a form of discoveries or breakthroughs, what is the point of education?

I digress with my idealism of education. Returning to the point of Kimmy and the nukes, I think it would be even worse if Kim dies. A civil war might erupt and spill over to South Korea, and the machine guns at the DMZ aren't enough to mow down a 1.6 mil strong army.

UTTERLY USELESS FACT : If you take the initials of North Korea, add a U between the 2 letters and a E at the end, you get what they are always trying to build.

Basically, all parties just want to postpone the day of reckoning. The longer the delay, the larger the impact will be when that day comes.

Actually, i don't think the North Korean goverment can do that much, you overestimated their ability. More likely the difference in culture ( i do not say clothes, building and such... but how they think and act) are different with "almost" the rest of the world. Think why they worship their leader when we worship our idols instead?

Well i do not live in North Korea so what i say maybe pointless. But everytime i see Western world try to prove a group of people brainwashed, they always skip lots of detail and try to simplify the problem ( ask around and you can see how many people really believe Muslism terrorists go suicide so they can get those virgins....)

You have an interesting way of evaluate Asian education. But then it really is out of topic

Geez! I really feel sorry for the citizens. Sooner or later people are gonna treat them like Iraqis.

Oh no!!! Here comes a Korean. To the safehouse......

I believe that the existence of nuclear weaponry and supports nuclear abolishment. However, if North Korea intends to fire nukes, I hope they get nuked first. I guess my perspective, especially on the nukes is very similar to that of former prime minister Sato Eisaku.

Born in the wrong country? You mean the North Koreans..? I do not think they are innocent people, considering that they grew up under a rogue regime in which they receive brainwashing sessions as education. Have you ever heard of disagreeing voices in North Korea around the world? I have yet to heard of any. And thus, people who consider North Korea as a serious threat cannot be considered as part of the so-called "NK paranoia". In fact, the term "NK paranoia" is merely part of the propaganda North Korean supporters are spreading. Thus, your point is invalid IMO, no offense though.

People who disagree in North Korea tend to dissappear or get "re-educated". Most of the population is too busy worrying about preventing their children from starving to death to worry about how to change things for the better besides. The lack of vocal dissenters doesn't mean that the population fully supports their "Dear Leader".

Your *interpretation* of my post is invalid... because you completely misunderstood my point. The paranoia I refer to is North Korea's own paranoia. The *people* of North Korea are pawns in this geopolitic -- they can't be said to have had any free choice since the information they get is so tightly controlled.

Not to mention all the defectors.

In that case, my apologies. Your point is valid. :)

People tend to get too serious when it concern either politics or religious. So it's hard to solve a problem (when it relates to these two) without one side have to submit to defeat.

Then it is also easier to either "for" or "against" something than doubt whether we should or not. So yeah that's why international relations are such a mess.

Btw, my friend in Seoul do not even want to discuss about future conflicts in Korea, as he knows how easy he will become the target =]

I'll try to write more clearly in the future too..... I can see my post wasn't 100% unambiguous on rereading it.

From what we can see is that Korea wouldn't have a reconcilation like Germany in probably a few more decades. Having the North racked by a civil war would be disastrous as it might spill over to the South in a matter of hours!

South Korea would be in trouble if North Korea invades. Not just that the South Korean military is weaker than North Korea's, as soon as millions of refugees swarm pass the borders, the economy of South Korea is expected to deteriorate at a very fast speed. There will be all sorts of problems. Thus, it is best that Japan and South Korea team up, continue to push North Korea back to six-party talks and pressure them to denuclearize as soon as possible. There isn't many alternatives at this time with the exceptions of military operations which most people would prefer not to, including myself.

Either that or buy more machine guns for the border. Quite a number of navies in the world are selling their manual CIS guns (20mm Oerlikon usually, sometimes a ZPU) for automated versions.

Invading the North sounds like a bad idea. But I could see it as inevitable in the future considering how stubborn the North Korean army is.

The South Korean military is not weaker than the North's. It may be smaller, but it is much better trained and equiped. Further it has a much better air force. Most imporantly South Korea has the population and industry to support it's military. If anything South Korea is much stronger than the North.

Of course, considering that NK has 99999999999 batteries of artillery pointed at Seoul, it's kind of a moot point. :heh:

SK might come out (relatively) intact, with NK absolutely devastated, but the losses would be so high on both sides it'd be a pyrrhic victory for the South.

It's called an evacuation. The SK will take on the paranoia claims and claim that there will be city-wide evacuation drills in the case of nuclear explosions. They do this a couple of times to determine how serious the populous will take it, make them get out and on one particular evac drill, smash NK, Seoul can burn but the people live.

Not sure about you, but I wouldn't be able to use any of the firearms if I were to guard the borders when swarm of non-combatant civilians rush over.. It's just not right..