For those of you who are current with the manga, it is becoming abundantly clear that the island upon which all the characters reside is about to be torn apart by a fierce war. Riful seems set to attempt the awakening of the merged remains of Luciella/Rafaela while the Ghosts have kicked off the beginning of a large-scale anti-Organization rebellion. These actions will act as catalysts, along with those of Rubel/Organization's enemies (see Chapter 84) to start an island-wide war into which all sides will be drawn in a fight for supremacy & survival.

The Factions:

Ghosts
Western Abyssal(s?)
Southern Abyssals
The Organization
Organization's Enemy/Dragonkin (outside enemy not currently fighting on island but interfering)


But if you don't see what you want to talk about in the following section, don't worry! Feel free to discuss everything and anything regarding the Island War on this thread however much you like.
There are a number of areas in which to think about with the coming war:

1.) The Current Strategic Situation (balance of power (war strength, etc), strengths/weaknesses of each side, relations between factions)
B.) Changes in the Strategic situation? Causes? Possible future changes?
2.) What faction is most vulnerable to a shift in the balance of power? What actions will each faction take to compensate?
3.) What would happen if the mainland Organization/mainland Organization's Enemies + Dragonkin were to actively intervene?
4.) Chances of Factions' deaths/Ultimate fate of faction(s)...



I'll give an example of how you might approach this from the perspective of just one faction, the Ghosts:

1. Currently the Ghosts are the weakest of the four main factions actually on the island. Their top two fighters are sub-Abyssal strength but clearly stronger than the Organization's number 3 Audrey. Their equivalent strength is perhaps equal to all Claymores 2-15, but they will eventually be overwhelmed if by nothing else sheer numbers & Claymore Number 1, Alicia. However they have the advantages of being all of a relatively high level (excepting Clarice), having two Eyes (Galatea & Tabitha), being able to move unobserved due to Youki suppression, attracting defectors from the Organization, and also intelligence advantages that may help them turn most of the island's population/some Claymores against the organization. However, due to the current situation of having their numbers spread out, they are highly vulnerable to being picked off in small groups whereas they'd be more effective together in a single large group. Their current relations with Riful & the Organization seems to imply they will find themselves fighting one or both groups early on.

B.) With a possible awakening of the merged Rafaela/Luciella the Ghosts are going to become even more weak relative to the other factions. Their advantage of stealth however may make it less of a liability than it would otherwise be.

2.) Currently the Ghosts are not the faction most vulnerable to a shift in power due to their stealthy nature. Instead that is the Organization whose members are easily detected by the other three factions. It is likely that to compensate for a shift in power on the island the Ghosts will start attracting dissident claymores to their ranks through use of their nearly unmatched intelligence on the Organization (provided via Rubel/Organization's enemies).

3.) Were either side from the mainland to send forces to actively intervene in the island's affairs, the Ghosts might react by organizing the island's humans. What I mean by that is they currently have an army within almost arm's grasp literally. The city of Rabona maintains substantial armed forces (the only apparently on the island), is heavily fortified, and most importantly, is hardly friendly with the organization. It is not hard to imagine the Ghosts leading an army of human soldiers against an opposing army from either enemy side on the mainland if they are forced to. The reaction might be different if it is the mainland organization that sends the army, which might encourage the Ghosts to request aid from the opposing side & its Dragonkin rather than lead their own.

4.) For the Ghosts the chances of failure/death is very high, but coincidentally they also have a high chance of enduring the conflict, as they are highly mobile, stealthy, fairly strong, and tend to work in well-coordinated teams. However until they demonstrate the ability to take down an Abyssal one they will have little chance of ultimate success.

I don't know about Isley necessarily being uninvolved with what is going on right now. I would guess he actually gave Raki permission to take along Priscilla in the hope that she'd run into Riful and end Riful's resistance to his taking over the island. Chances are good that her being next to Raki was permitted on purpose by Isley in the context of some greater overall strategy.

Also there is another very powerful weapon they can use against the Org. The truth. Just hearing it made Clarice realize that she and Miatia could not return without bieng executed. Even if they don't immedieatly belive it, any Claymore who hears the truth will be confused and demoralized. Worst case scenario for the org will have dessertaion and revolt.