Ukrainian Conflict
Ukraine puts forces on combat alert, warns of war
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So is Obama going to do a pivot to Eastern Europe now?
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U.S. Spies Said No Russian Invasion of Ukraine—Putin Disagreed:
"On Thursday night, the best assessment from the U.S. intelligence community—and for that matter most experts observing events in Ukraine—was that Vladimir Putin’s military would not invade Ukraine. Less than 24 hours later, however, there are reports from the ground of Russian troops pushing into the Ukrainian province of Crimea; the newly-installed Crimean prime minister has appealed to Putin to help him secure the country; Putin, in turn, is officially asking for parliament's permission to send Russian forces into Ukraine. It’s not a full-blown invasion—at least, not yet. But it’s not the picture U.S. analysts were painting just a day before, either." See: http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...disagreed.html Quote:
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Also, Ukraine disarmed their nukes willingly in exchange for a defence guarantee; this event makes the argument that nuclear proliferation is the only defence. And that any nation who doesn't want nukes is asking to be invaded like Ukraine is. In short: Build your own nukes or die. |
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Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. Quote:
And I guess you are technically right in that the US doesn't have to defend Ukraine; the one who broke the treaty is Russia. But the fact remains that Ukraine's position came from them trusting the world powers. And now that trust is broken, and this can have global issues. So, yeah, American can stay out if they want. But if they stay out then we are going back to the Cold War immediately. |
There are still the French and the Brits.
Would be interesting if two centuries old rivals put their differences aside to defend Ukraine. |
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkiSPMpTp_I
Seems western media decided to soothingly change sides Quote:
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If any, Obama will need to stop being a dithering pussy on foreign policy and hold a strong crystal clear position (through existing treaties) because anything else will be a wrong message to send knowing the situation in the Pacific as VCV mentioned. |
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A BBC coverage about the existence of far-right group in Kiev (not a secret) does not constitute "change sides", considering they aren't on anyone's side to begin with. Remember, this isn't Russia, these are not state-owned news media. Quote:
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The U.S. has more excuses to back down than Russia does. Ukraine is Russia's backyard, and any instability there is a direct threat to Russia's security, unlike the thousands-of-miles-away USA.
Were NATO to penetrate Ukraine in any form, Russia would view it as an act of aggression against itself. And then you'd have a WW3 without a doubt. Quote:
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There have always been reports that the 'opposition' is a very crude mix of all kinds of political positions, containing extremists of both the far left and the far right, even neo-nazis and ultra-nationalists among them. By the way, that was one of the reasons no one expected they would get anywhere with their protests: It was thought to be impossible for them to decide on a common demand. |
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Kiev's current government is illegitimate law-wise. Eye-wise (not sure if there even is such a definition) it's partially seen as legitimate in Ukraine's west, which has only about 10% of Ukraine's entire population. Quote:
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Go find them yourself if you don't believe me, I don't work on weekends.
Germany is pretty sensitive when it comes to neo-nazis, so there have been more than enough critical reports about that part of the opposition. Especially when some of our politicians (and one of our boxers -_-') got involved with it. |
NATO is simply not going to do anything against Russia, even if Russia were to proclaim whole of Ukraine to be Russian territory. All of the hysteria and drum beating coming from guys like Poland and the US are acts of face-saving, to show that they're not completely ball-less in the face of a Ruski threat.
Though, for the US president to threaten Russia with "costs" is an insult, and was in fact seen as an insult on a top level in Russia. Russia's Federal Council proposed to respond by calling off the Russian ambassador to the US. Quote:
The Federal Council seems to hold a unanimous position on what actions have to be taken in Ukraine (as well as in regard to the ambassador), as most, if not all, Russians see Ukraine's current situation as threat to their peace and a blatant disrespect from their western friends. This whole situation however was to be expected. NATO global hegemony was to last only for as long as Russia and China stayed in the background and preferred not to intervene in global affairs. Now a confrontation is arising as both begin to bargain for their national interests. You'll see lots of sabre-rattling in the coming years, but it is highly doubtful any actions on the part of Russia will lead to WW3. Unless of course WW3 is what the west secretly wants. |
I have friends who still have family there, getting nervous about the news.
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Crimea was Russian before the Soviets decided for some reason to give it to the Ukrainian SSR. I think this happened in the 50s. In any case, 60% of the population there is ethnically Russian.
As for issues concerning "mainland" Ukraine, splitting the country between "Ukrainians" and "Russians" won't work since the populations live together and have ambiguous identity to begin with. Who gets Kiev? How big do you want to make West Ukraine? This is what happens when you take the USSR, a country of people that were essentially similar culturally and try to split them up based on Western notions of the nation-state and wanton self-determinism. Putting aside some cases like Georgia or the Baltic states, Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus are all part of the same Russian* cultural sphere . It would be nice if Ukraine could get its act together as an independent country like Poland or the Czechs, but given the fact that their culture is undeniably tied to Russia, it's not really possible. *= русский as opposed to российский. The former refers to the historical state of Rus, the latter only refers to modern Russia. Rus was in fact created in what is Ukrainian in modern times. There is only one English word for both concepts, unfortunately. The below map shows the gradient of cultural/ethnic identity in the country. Note that only a small part in the west is decisively Ukrainian. http://globalvoicesonline.org/wp-con.../2009-copy.jpg |
But the rift between the Ukrainians, Tatars and Russians has also existed far long ago during the Tsar's reign. Stalin only made it worse. And now this. I fear that this would be an ideal environment for extremist, fasism and Nazi parties.
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Guys, remember to use the edit button whenever you want to add something to your comments. Double or triple posting pushes other comments down the pages and it's not that hard to press the edit button either.
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