What is Occam's Razor?

That makes no sense at all. If the person who shot you was in the same room, you would get out of there. Why stay in a room with someone who will kill you if they find you?

:uhoh: Great another tri personaity Shannon idea XD.

"Entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity" or, more straightforwardly put, "the simplest solution is usually the best".

When using this to solve mysteries, it means we should favor the more elegant solutions, ones that provide answers involving the least amount of assumptions.

In other words, one murderer is better than two, simply because you have to explain less.

Ahh I see. But Van Dine also says there should only be one culprit. And we all know how Ryukishi loves his rules ;)

You know what ? I hope that Umineko will had 10 EPs...why ? Just to fill the epitaph. Maybe the epitaph doesn't only say where is the gold.

"At the second twilight, the surviving shall tear apart the two who are close."
In EP2 Jessica+Kanon and Shannon+George were killed together. (for George "Perhaps they could have been the 2nd twilight")

In EP3, it's centred about Eva-Beatrice, and all this meta-world trick to trap Battler could be the "At the third twilight, the surviving shall praise my honorable name on high."

In EP4 : "At the fourth twilight, gouge the head and kill."
It's obvious that most of the crimes where shots on the head except for Kanon and Maria (Shanon probably pushed him in the well, if she is the culprit here)

In EP5 : "At the fifth twilight, gouge the chest and kill."
Hideyoshi was hit in the chest, because the stake reached his lungs.
And you can say that Natshui had her heart completely destroyed by Bern. Heart and chest are not far from each other, I guess.

I didn't read EP6, did someone died with the stomach pierced or something like that ?

But if Umineko end on EP8, it's not fun anymore...but if it reach EP9, it's a bit...harsh : "At the ninth twilight, the Witch shall live again and none shall be left to live."...I feel epic fail for battler here...

The "Golden Land" could be the world on the truth ? What really happened ? The Golden Truth behind the game ? And the key shall be the love of Beatrice or Beatrice herself ?

No; the only deaths at least that we know of are beheadings.

Occam's razor is easy to misapply. :) It does not follow from this heuristic that there is only one murderer -- it follows that the simplest complete explanation is preferable, but one is not 'simplest' by itself if it allows only one murderer. The simplest explanation is one that involves making the least assumptions, which for most single culprit theories mount sky high.

I'm sort of suspicious about Kanon in Episode 1. Especially the whole scene with the boiler room.

Let us say that a planned explosion is set in the boiler room. Only a few people know about it.
When Kumasawa and Kanon leave to "check the kitchen" for the source of the smell, they hear a sound from the boiler room.
While it may seem natural to assume that Kanon only wanted to prevent whoever was down there from escaping, a different idea can be presented if we assume Kanon to be a culprit (or, at least, an accomplice).

Now let us say that Kanon set up the timed explosion (he might not of; he could just be an accomplice. But the reasoning doesn't change).

He hears a sound in the boiler room and runs down there, not because he suspects that the culprit is trying to escape, but he wants to make sure that no one finds out about the trap.
After arriving, he may or may not find anyone down there. Who knows; it may have just been a delusion or a misunderstanding. The important thing is that Kanon is down there and that the others may come down there to investigate.
Kanon does not want anyone to discover the trap, so in desperation, he creates a diversion. That diversion is his own "death."
He sets up his own death (which may or may actually result in him being dead, he could have been faking it) so that the siblings do not notice anything suspicious in the room.

Another thing to bring up is Kinzo's burnt body in the basement. The perpetrator would have to know that Kinzo was dead, or they would be at least a bit startled too see the body. Thus, since Kanon is a servant and was informed by Krauss of Kinzo's death, he would not be surprised that someone tried to cover up Kinzo's corpse with the Epitaph mystery.
Either that, or it's not actually Kinzo's body. I don't know.

Edit: Random thought--- If Shannon is behind it all, then it would make sense for Kanon to avenge her. You know, since they're close.
I suspect, that since the explosion incident has been confirmed, there are two groups:
a.) Bomb squad
b.) Murder squad

While Shannon may be behind the bombings (with Kanon's help), she unfortunately gets murdered in the first twilight and can not ensure her plan's success. So Kanon takes control of the operation and makes sure that his cover isn't blown. Even if it means killing himself to do it (that's a lot of dedication for such a plan, but it could happen).

Second edit: You know, the strange smell was probably some sort of explosive fluid, like gasoline. The only reason I can back this up is because a similar thing happened in Higurashi.
When Rena went all terrorist on the school, a lot of the kids had been complaining of a smell in the school.
That sort of reminded me of this, a bit.

Perhaps Kanon remembered how the family treated Eva and Hideyoshi's deaths: they wanted to preserve the crime scene. By "killing himself," he knew that the family would not change the crime scene until the police came. So that seemed to be the best course of action for him to prevent the foiling of the trap.

The following is not a theory. Meaning that I am not about to write out in detail how it could explain everything -- I am not sure it even can. I am only detailing something which I think makes sense and explains things. It is more of a 'whydunnit' than 'whodunnit'. It is very probably wrong in many places, but maybe you ladies and gentlemen can hammer it into shape.

So let's call this a Dispersed Beatrice Hypothesis. Let me try to answer some major questions...

• What is Battler's sin?
  
  In 1980, Battler was in fact in love with Jessica rather than Shannon. The love was mutual, but never declared, with Jessica being well on her way to becoming a tsundere. Battler actually proposed to Shannon instead to test Jessica's feelings, which resulted in him making the promise he subsequently broke that Jessica treated seriously.
  
  In Ep3, Jessica says directly to Battler for no visible reason: "A community of girls with the wrong impressions can be scary. They could have some secret feud behind your back, and hurt someone or make them cry without you noticing it, right?"
  
  Furthermore, in Ep5 Battler himself describes how that happened: "By that argument... ...it really isn't a stretch to say it's like love between shy elementary or middle school-aged kids. ...Even though they really do want it, they don't have the courage to reveal their feelings, so they wait uncomfortably for the other person to confess......and by the time summer ends, nothing's happened. Heheh, sometimes they'll even go out with a different person. That's what my first love was like, ihihi."
  
  
• Who is Beatrice?
  
  There is more than one person laying claim to the name 'Beatrice', and both Jessica and Shannon are claimants. It fits the red about the sin not being between Beatrice and Battler because at the moment it is uttered, Battler is actually talking to Jessica!
  
  Through Kinzo's will, related to us in 'Kinzo's speech in Ep4, the siblings are no longer eligible to receive any inheritance from him in any circumstances, but his grandchildren still are, if the headship transfer procedure is followed. It can proceed in one of two possible ways -- either one of them solves the epitaph, or one is selected through a headship test.
  
  Jessica believes Battler is not actually her cousin, having heard of the circumstances of his birth, and therefore thinks that his only chance of becoming the heir in a legit manner is solving the epitaph. Solving the epitaph and remembering his sin would actually make their union possible in her eyes, even though it would be a miraclous 'Beatrice victory' which is normally impossible. (One can probably happen, but not both.) However, she cannot possibly convey her feelings openly or even admit to herself she still has them. She instead burdens Shannon with them, as if Shannon does not have enough on her plate.
  
  
• How does Maria know Beatrice?
  
  Maria is a child prodigy and actually learned much of the hermetic tradition herself by being left alone for extended periods. She used much of this time to frequent the local library as the text says. It is not Maria who learned magic from Beatrice but actually, the other way round! The Beatrice Maria has met is not Jessica, but actually Shannon, and Maria is directly responsible for much of the mystic imagery of the series, and the entire idea of Magic of Origins, offering her imagination as the source. The development of this idea was supported by Shannon and Kumasawa with cursory knowledge, gleaned from books Kinzo shuffled off to Kuwadorian which they had free access to. Shannon and Kumasawa participated in this out of pity for the neglected child.
  
  They were allowed to spend a lot of time alone with Maria because Rosa was friendly with the servants from early childhood, trusting them much more than she trusted her siblings. In the situation when Rosa could no longer suspect anyone else but them, her harsh reaction is that of the feeling of betrayal by someone she trusted.
  
  
• Who is Beatrice-2?
  
  Beatrice-2, seen in 1967 and subsequently dead, is the child of Kinzo and Beatrice-1. Rosa's contact with Beatrice-2 was considerably longer and more detailed than she lets on in Ep3, and the land path to Kuwadorian was actually her preferred means of escape from the clutches of her parents. Rosa actually condenses her first and last meetings with Beatrice-2 into one. Beatrice-2's death did not occur as described. This created a shared secret between Rosa and the servants, which is why Rosa is in on some parts of certain plans. Kanon is actually the child of Beatrice-2, the Man From 19 Years Ago, and both the son and grandson of Kinzo. He is weak and sickly, and doesn't look his age because of inbreeding and the fact that unlike Battler, he did not have access to steroids. Kinzo and Genji were actually aware of that, but Jessica and Shannon weren't.
  
  
• Who set us up the bomb?
  
  Jessica did, as a time limit on Battler solving the epitaph. She is also the one who recovered the money from the gold stash to pay the families in the worst case. Shannon is the one who sent the letters on Jessica's orders.
  
  
• Who sends the letters?
  
  Genji, Kanon, Shannon and Kumasawa have access to the head ring, however, most of the letters are actually prepared and sealed beforehand as part of various plans, and then used as needed. In cases where Jessica is playing Beatrice herself and the letters and notes differ substantially from the first letter, which is always the same, like Ep2, messages from Beatrice are not even in envelopes, or the seal is not verified. Other people may also take advantage of the letter idea and leave their own 'Beatrice' messages.
  
  
• Does the shrine mirror have any special significance?
  
  In Japanese mythology, the mirror is a symbol of truth, because it reflects everything as it is. The breaking of the mirror is a metaphorical expression of Shannon's commitment to magic, i.e. distortion of reality. Natsuhi's mirror symbolises her knowledge of the truth that George, Shannon and Gohda are after in Ep3.
  
  
• Who killed everyone?
  
  Multiple people are actually involved with killing, all for their separate reasons. In particular, Hideyoshi, Eva, George, Jessica, Shannon, Rudolf, Kyrie and Kanon are all involved in murders at one time or another, each for a reason of their own. Much of these murders are spur of the moment reactions to the plots spun by Jessica, Natsuhi, Kyrie and possibly Krauss.
  
  Jessica is responsible for Kinzo's death. As Kinzo, slowly going insane, turned his attention to her as a possible reincarnation of Beatrice, she killed him accidentally while protecting herself -- which happened as an indirect consequence of Battler's sin, as Battler was not there to protect her. The resulting cascade of complicated trickery that proceeds into murders is a direct consequence of that death being so abrupt, so, 'because of your sin, people die'. Jessica is responsible for the first twilight fakery in most episodes, but not the first twilight murders themselves.
  
  Krauss plan was, as described in Ep5, to delay Kinzo's disappearance up until his business picks up, for which he condoned the Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy and participated in it, but Natsuhi's plan was more complicated and actually involved the transfer of headship to Jessica to prevent Krauss from further squandering his fortune and required the availability of Kinzo's corpse. First twilight fakery normally occurs with her knowledge and support, and is perpetrated with the direct involvement of Genji and Kumasawa. Normally it goes horribly wrong by the morning.
  
  Hideyoshi, George and Shannon, as well as Eva all get ideas to install George or Eva as the head, and at various points take the opportunities that lead to that goal. Shannon is in particular influenced by George's own plan to stand against the entire family and plays Beatrice on her own in several branches of the story.
  
  Kyrie and Rudolf not only have substantial legal problems in Rudolf's business, but also other reasons to require a large sum of money, which is why they form the Anti-Krauss faction. When faced with Kinzo's will, they quickly adapt their plans to take advantage of the loopholes provided by it.
  
  Kanon firmly detests anything related to Beatrice, because he is aware of the circumstances of his birth, and does not approve of Shannon's or Jessica's involvement with the idea. He is involved in an attempt to strike back at 'the murderer' in more than one episode. In Ep1, he fakes his own death with cooperation of Nanjo and Jessica because he suspects Shannon of being the first twilight murderer, and shoots Natsuhi in the end because he believes her to be the mastermind.

Yep, I'm pretty sure this text won't be received particularly well. :)

• This part, in my opinion, is highly likely. I'm pretty sure that Battler's sin does involve Shannon in some case. I was startled by the thought of Battler-Jessica incest, but hey, Elfen Lied did it. Can't completely discount the possibility.
  
  Quote:

  Originally Posted by Oliver (Post 3051684) Who is Beatrice? There is more than one person laying claim to the name 'Beatrice', and both Jessica and Shannon are claimants. It fits the red about the sin not being between Beatrice and Battler because at the moment it is uttered, Battler is actually talking to Jessica! Through Kinzo's will, related to us in 'Kinzo's speech in Ep4, the siblings are no longer eligible to receive any inheritance from him in any circumstances, but his grandchildren still are, if the headship transfer procedure is followed. It can proceed in one of two possible ways -- either one of them solves the epitaph, or one is selected through a headship test. Jessica believes Battler is not actually her cousin, having heard of the circumstances of his birth, and therefore thinks that his only chance of becoming the heir in a legit manner is solving the epitaph. Solving the epitaph and remembering his sin would actually make their union possible in her eyes, even though it would be a miraclous 'Beatrice victory' which is normally impossible. (One can probably happen, but not both.) However, she cannot possibly convey her feelings openly or even admit to herself she still has them. She instead burdens Shannon with them, as if Shannon does not have enough on her plate.

  I suppose this is possible as well. I was originally going to say that this contradicts the red, maybe it doesn't.
  Example of how the Beatrice-thing is not a contradiction:
  If someone said, "Chris killed bluhbluhbluh," then all people named Chris would be placed under suspicion.
  People would even look at me, even though I didn't do anything. The fact of the matter is that addressing someone by their name does not address all people with the name; rather, even though it may apply to all people named Chris, it does not address them. Therefore, since Beatrice-Jessica has no beef with Battler, the statement Beatrice has no relation to Battler's sin is not contradicted. After all, the name "Beatrice" is referring to Beatrice-Jessica, not Beatrice-Shannon, just like the Chris situation.
  
  Quote:

  Originally Posted by Oliver (Post 3051684) How does Maria know Beatrice? Maria is a child prodigy and actually learned much of the hermetic tradition herself by being left alone for extended periods. She used much of this time to frequent the local library as the text says. It is not Maria who learned magic from Beatrice but actually, the other way round! The Beatrice Maria has met is not Jessica, but actually Shannon, and Maria is directly responsible for much of the mystic imagery of the series, and the entire idea of Magic of Origins, offering her imagination as the source. The development of this idea was supported by Shannon and Kumasawa with cursory knowledge, gleaned from books Kinzo shuffled off to Kuwadorian which they had free access to. Shannon and Kumasawa participated in this out of pity for the neglected child. They were allowed to spend a lot of time alone with Maria because Rosa was friendly with the servants from early childhood, trusting them much more than she trusted her siblings. In the situation when Rosa could no longer suspect anyone else but them, her harsh reaction is that of the feeling of betrayal by someone she trusted.

  I also agree with this part. Especially given the scenes with Beatrice and Maria in the Golden Land. Maria seems to be the one who "invented" magic in the Golden Land. Maria's claims that Beatrice did the murders with magic is not because she is trying to be a jerkwad, but rather because she wants to convice people that magic exists.
  
  Quote:

  Originally Posted by Oliver (Post 3051684) Who is Beatrice-2? Beatrice-2, seen in 1967 and subsequently dead, is the child of Kinzo and Beatrice-1. Rosa's contact with Beatrice-2 was considerably longer and more detailed than she lets on in Ep3, and the land path to Kuwadorian was actually her preferred means of escape from the clutches of her parents. Rosa actually condenses her first and last meetings with Beatrice-2 into one. Beatrice-2's death did not occur as described. This created a shared secret between Rosa and the servants, which is why Rosa is in on some parts of certain plans. Kanon is actually the child of Beatrice-2, the Man From 19 Years Ago, and both the son and grandson of Kinzo. He is weak and sickly, and doesn't look his age because of inbreeding and the fact that unlike Battler, he did not have access to steroids. Kinzo and Genji were actually aware of that, but Jessica and Shannon weren't.

  This is where I'm confused. Are you saying that Beatrice-1 (Shannon or Jessica) gave birth to Beatrice-2 when they were infants? :twitch:
  Or that Jessica or Shannon ARE Beatrice-2 and that Beatrice-1 is Kinzo's lover? I'm confused by this part.
  
  Quote:

  Originally Posted by Oliver (Post 3051684) Who set us up the bomb? Jessica did, as a time limit on Battler solving the epitaph. She is also the one who recovered the money from the gold stash to pay the families in the worst case. Shannon is the one who sent the letters on Jessica's orders.

  No contradictions here. Although I would like to add that the person that solves the Epitaph (even though it was directed towards Battler, as you say) is probably given the location of the "Golden Land," a bomb shelter (or a place where the explosion does not reach).
  
  Quote:

  Originally Posted by Oliver (Post 3051684) Who sends the letters? Genji, Kanon, Shannon and Kumasawa have access to the head ring, however, most of the letters are actually prepared and sealed beforehand as part of various plans, and then used as needed. In cases where Jessica is playing Beatrice herself and the letters and notes differ substantially from the first letter, which is always the same, like Ep2, messages from Beatrice are not even in envelopes, or the seal is not verified. Other people may also take advantage of the letter idea and leave their own 'Beatrice' messages. Does the shrine mirror have any special significance? In Japanese mythology, the mirror is a symbol of truth, because it reflects everything as it is. The breaking of the mirror is a metaphorical expression of Shannon's commitment to magic, i.e. distortion of reality. Natsuhi's mirror symbolises her knowledge of the truth that George, Shannon and Gohda are after in Ep3.

  Sure. I always imagined that the mirror-breaking was some sort of symbolism.
  
  Quote:

  Originally Posted by Oliver (Post 3051684) Who killed everyone? Multiple people are actually involved with killing, all for their separate reasons. In particular, Hideyoshi, Eva, George, Jessica, Shannon, Rudolf, Kyrie and Kanon are all involved in murders at one time or another, each for a reason of their own. Much of these murders are spur of the moment reactions to the plots spun by Jessica, Natsuhi, Kyrie and possibly Krauss. Jessica is responsible for Kinzo's death. As Kinzo, slowly going insane, turned his attention to her as a possible reincarnation of Beatrice, she killed him accidentally while protecting herself -- which happened as an indirect consequence of Battler's sin, as Battler was not there to protect her. The resulting cascade of complicated trickery that proceeds into murders is a direct consequence of that death being so abrupt, so, 'because of your sin, people die'. Jessica is responsible for the first twilight fakery in most episodes, but not the first twilight murders themselves. Krauss plan was, as described in Ep5, to delay Kinzo's disappearance up until his business picks up, for which he condoned the Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy and participated in it, but Natsuhi's plan was more complicated and actually involved the transfer of headship to Jessica to prevent Krauss from further squandering his fortune and required the availability of Kinzo's corpse. First twilight fakery normally occurs with her knowledge and support, and is perpetrated with the direct involvement of Genji and Kumasawa. Normally it goes horribly wrong by the morning. Hideyoshi, George and Shannon, as well as Eva all get ideas to install George or Eva as the head, and at various points take the opportunities that lead to that goal. Shannon is in particular influenced by George's own plan to stand against the entire family and plays Beatrice on her own in several branches of the story. Kyrie and Rudolf not only have substantial legal problems in Rudolf's business, but also other reasons to require a large sum of money, which is why they form the Anti-Krauss faction. When faced with Kinzo's will, they quickly adapt their plans to take advantage of the loopholes provided by it. Kanon firmly detests anything related to Beatrice, because he is aware of the circumstances of his birth, and does not approve of Shannon's or Jessica's involvement with the idea. He is involved in an attempt to strike back at 'the murderer' in more than one episode. In Ep1, he fakes his own death with cooperation of Nanjo and Jessica because he suspects Shannon of being the first twilight murderer, and shoots Natsuhi in the end because he believes her to be the mastermind.

One thing you didn't address is the real Battler. If Asumu-Battler is the one on the island before Asumu dies, then where does Kyrie-Battler come in?

Or, I just thought of something:

It seems that there is a major change that happens between the Question Arcs and the Core Arcs. Of course, there is a high likelyhood that Battler is responsible for this.

Therefore, I present this:

Asumu's son Battler is on the island when the cousins are young. This is the Battler that develops a relationship with Jessica. Likewise, when Battler returns after six years (in the Question Arcs), this is the same Asumu-Battler that has a relationship with Jessica. However, when the Core Arcs come around, SOMETHING happens to Asumu-Battler and Kyrie's son Battler takes his place! This explains Battler being a culprit in the Core Arcs!
Random speculation ^^

Anyways, while I disagree with some of your arguments, I like where you're going with this. It's certainly a feasible theory hypothesis :)


Edit: Did Ryukishi say that the "explosion incident" was from a central explosion? What if, instead a central explosion in the boiler room, they are isolated incidences?
As in, if Gohda was instructed to make SMALL BOMBS in his food. If some sort of cure is provided with the solving of the Epitaph... then they'd become immune to the bombs and they would be excreted normally. (The problem with this is that it takes around 24 hours for food to be digested, which is slightly less than the time span of the game).
This is sort of a gag theory, but still. :D

No, of course not. :)

Let us call the Beatrice Kinzo met during WWII or soon after, who is the origin of his gold stash, "Beatrice-1", the earliest known Beatrice. There are currently two good theories who she could be -- 1) She was American, part of the occupation administration, siphoning valuables seized as part of the occupation, apparently known in Japanese folklore as the "M Funds" and the subject of popular 419-style scams today. 2) She was a foreigner otherwise involved with the treasure known as "Yamashita's gold", seized in Asia during WWII.

Kinzo clearly built Kuwadorian before the main mansion, if he built it at all and didn't acquire it by some other means, and there she lived and died before 1952, leaving him with a child, which we will now call "Beatrice-2". Losing the love of his life, Kinzo slowly went insane, attempting to resurrect the personality of Beatrice-1 in Beatrice-2. In 1967 or 1968, Beatrice-2 died, and Kuwadorian was mostly abandoned. There's a certain chance that Kumasawa actually is Beatrice-1, but that doesn't fly very well with how she was treated as a servant all the way since. There's also a chance that Beatrice-1 never actually existed, but somehow Kinzo actually acquired the child known as Beatrice-2 anyway.

The Beatrice seen on the gameboard is Beatrice-3, the third in this line, and this is a title I believe is claimed both by Jessica and Shannon.

I imagine the bomb, if placed deliberately to trigger a gas storage explosion, can be simply turned off -- only it normally isn't.

That's where it gets fuzzy, but I think that a semantic trick of some kind is used to create the illusion of the Other Battler just like the Zombie Kanon and the Living Kinzo of Ep4 are created. I'm not sure how it works yet.

A theory is something clearly supported with arguments, my long ramble mostly runs on intuition. :)

Oh, sorry, I mistook the Beatrice-1 and Beatrice-2 thing ^^;

I suppose that works too.

The thing is, though, is how this deviates from the Occam's Razor. I realize that this isn't exactly an easy game to solve (oh, hell no) but all of these things about aliases is sort of complicated.

Granted, this hypothesis is one of the more simpler ones on the website.
I agree with the "keep it simple, stupid" mindset, that is the Occam Razor mindset.
But I was sort of hoping that a puzzle of this magnitude would not rely on wordplay in its solution, or sneaky manipulation of the Red Truth.
I just seems like sort of a let-down if advanced wordplay is utilized in the solution. After all, the Knox Commandments exist so that a "cheap" solution is not allowed to exist in a fair-play mystery.
But you know, I wouldn't put it above the author.

Edit: Err, I'm not trying to come across as a jerk here. Your ideas are good, regardless :)

Wow, Oliver. Points 1-4, 5 and 6 are bloody fucking brilliant.
Point one makes sense to me, and it includes the fact that Jessica was also in love with Battler.
Point two I can completely agree with, but let me see if I can extend on it. Considering the two Beatos that we see in Episode 4, let's place Shannon as Dress-Beato and Jessica as Suit-Beato. This explains why Suit-Beato was so irritated when Battler couldn't remember his sin, and why Dress-Beato said it had nothing to do with her (then again, it sort of did).
The rest of the point is a little ironic though, considering Jessica's the one who is more likely to not be related by blood to the family.
Point three. This is interesting, but I think while Maria was the one who originally brought in the topic of magic, Shannon and Kumasawa rapidly grew on the idea. Even if it was just an attempt to keep her entertained on an island where she'd probably get bored very quickly, I think they started learning about magic, and then became fascinated in the idea themselves (or at least Shannon).
Point four. I've got no complaint here, but I think it's more that Kanon was pretending to be the man from nineteen years ago, because I still refuse to believe the possiblity that a child could survive a fall that far down. I like the rest of it though.
Point five. I can't imagine Jessica being the one that set us up the bomb, mostly because I can't see her personality allowing wide-scale murder like that. More so, the bomb goes off even when Battler finds the gold and announces it to the family in Episode 5, so I doubt the bomb has to do with finding the gold.
Point six. Not much to say here, but I think Genji/Shannon would be holding onto the ring, and since Genji has access to Kinzo's study, it would be easy to grab a stack of the head's letters and write up a letter at any time.
Point seven. It's less of a solution to anything and more of just random symbolism, but I like it.
Point eight. I can't agree large chunks of this. Mostly, the fact that Jessica kills Kinzo. As hard as it would be to hide, I doubt Jessica is even aware Kinzo is dead. She's not seen in the scene where the islanders are mourning his death, and it's not like she regularily goes out of her way to see if he's all right.
Though, Shannon is her best friend and Beato confident, so there is a possiblity that she leaked the news to her.
Thinking back, I'm not even sure there's any proof that Krauss kept Kinzo's corpse around. We know it gets burned up in several of the Episodes, but couldn't have been buried to make Kinzo "disappear," then dug up by one of the servants in on the Twilights scheme? I'm not familiar with how long it takes for a body to decompose, though they could probably find a makeshift coffin for the body somewhere on the island, which would lengthen the decomposition time.
So I don't think Natsuhi has the intention of skipping Krauss and placing the headship on Jessica. We've been shown that for how much of a naive idiot Krauss is, Natsuhi does love him, and is willing to support him whenever he needs it.
I won't deny that Eva wants either for herself to become the next head or for George to inherit it, but I doubt she would kill for it. Nor Hideyoshi for that matter. They're all for blackmail and deception, but I think Eva's plan is more to uncover whether or not Kinzo is really dead, then use it to blackmail Krauss to admit that he does not have the ability to act as the family head, having it passed on to the next in line, which is likely her or George. As for Hideyoshi, we know that he lived for quite a while without a family to enjoy life with. Now that he has this large and lively family, I doubt he would willingly kill them. Blackmail and decieve them, yes, but not kill them.
Rudolf and Kyrie. I can't say for sure if I can consider them killers. I'm especially doubtful of Kyrie, since she feels more like a red herring to me than anything, and I think if one of them is a killer, the other one would be as well, and inversely, if one of the isn't, the other one isn't as well. They don't seem to be the kind of couple that hides things from each other. I'm more for they're just trying to reveal Kinzo's death, just for the sake of money. Rudolf doesn't feel like the kind of person who really wants the responsibilities of the head.
I like your idea that Kanon is the one who kills Natsuhi at the end of Episode 1, since there no proof that he's dead. Still, the deaths of the six in the shed are ambiguous, and it's not like it's impossible for them to get out.

You see, Occam's razor is an idea that forms the core of scientific method. "Reality is as simple as possible." For physical reality, that is certainly true, but social reality creates it's own complications because of the involvement of numerous thinking agents, all of which try to anticipate each other's moves. Fictional reality isn't even bound by Occam's razor at all, because the more complicated solution is commonly seen as 'more interesting'. The puzzle is so complicated as to make a truly simple solution ('one culprit') not so simple at all, because that one culprit has to weave his or her way through a forest of red just to be able to pull it off all on their own. In this situation a multiple culprit solution can actually be simpler.

The truly critical bits about my Dispersed Beatrice Hypothesis are these assumptions:

• Battler, Jessica and Shannon actually form a love triangle of sorts, which motivates Jessica to force Battler to solve the epitaph. Battler's promise to Shannon is the sin referred to because it's a promise he did not truly intend to keep, because the relationship between him and Jessica was mutual. Hinted at by Jessica in Ep3 and Battler in Ep5.
• Battler's sin is indirectly the cause of the entire tragedy because he was not there to protect Jessica from Kinzo, which caused her to kill him and started the avalanche. That Jessica could have killed Kinzo is hinted at in the reiteration of the vase scene in Ep3.
• Jessica is responsible for some of the (mostly innocent) actions ascribed to Beatrice while Shannon is responsible for others, in particular, Shannon writes in Maria's diary and sends the money to relatives while Jessica plays Beatrice on the board, procures the money and presents the puzzle. There are several hints to both, as well as the hints that Beatrice is 'more than one woman' all the way back in Ep1 by Bernkastel.
• Multiple people kill for multiple reasons, in particular, some of the murders in Ep1 work reasonably smoothly only if Kanon faked his death and perpetrated them, and he could even have had noble, if mistaken, reasons to do so. Both Jessica and Shannon can be completely innocent or involved in some of the murders, and good or even noble reasons for them to be can be found.

The problem I see with that Oliver, is the fact that those that you define as "hints" of this theory are actually not hints that directly point to Jessitrice and could be quite possibly interpreted as hints to support shanontrice, which has many other hints in addition to those.

If Dress-Beatrice is Shannon, Shannon got over this promise -- she has George now through the power of magic, which allowed her to be more assertive and let her imagination plough her way through the social hurdles she normally encounters. Then the Suit-Beatrice is Jessica, who is, while not being the subject of Battler's sin (broken promise to Shannon) is deeply wounded by it. The red text is in context of an onboard conversation, so it refers to Suit-Beatrice, i.e. Jessica. :)

That one point is not critical for the hypothesis to work, but it could explain why Kanon would resent Beatrice implicitly.

Well, Ep5 narration says rather openly that whoever wants Battler to solve the epitaph also placed the time limit: "You're kidding me... ...don't set something like a time limit on this difficult riddle you're so proud of... No, ...I understand... Even though there was such a faint chance of that miracle happening, ...you prayed for it to happen... ...You're... ...just like Grandfather."

As a side note, Natsuhi or Krauss can have the motivation to blow the mansion up. They don't own it anymore. :)

It would have to be an accident of some kind, just like the broken vase.

There's a lot of problems with that, mostly because that if I were Krauss, I'd make sure to bury the corpse very deep in the forest. Hauling it all the way back would be problematic.

Well, I'll grant you that -- but, I'm pretty sure George is prepared to kill if he has to and can imagine multiple situations in which he will think he has to.

The plots they spin -- and they clearly do spin, at least the Ep5 scene with the letter and the knock makes me think Rudolf is the one who came up with the idea -- can complicate matters enough to create more spur of the moment murder opportunities, though.

I think Kanon is the most likely candidate for this particular shooting, because in Ep5 he expresses disapproval of the Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy rather strongly. Imagining that Natsuhi is the mastermind and then calling her out on a duel (which, if he is indeed a child of Beatrice-2, he has all the rights to do, being the oldest surviving son of Kinzo) would be quite in line with that. I don't think he killed anyone else in Ep1.

Bernkastel: "She does have the name Beatrice, but that doesn't necessarily mean that she is 'one individual woman'."

That's the one I find the most important.

Not to mention the armada of different Beatos we see throughout the Episodes...
Seriously. Meta-Beato, Dress-Beato(probably the same), Suit-Beato, Beato the Former (Rosa's Beato), Virgillia, Evatrice, Ange-Beato, Coma-Beato, Moetrice, Long-Haired-Suit-Beato...
If Ryuukishi throws in another Beato in Episode 7, I'm going to go crazy.
On a side note which is probably useless, there are now the same number of Beatos as human females (excluding Kasumi, since she's a crazy bitch, and Maria, who has her own witch incarnation).

Randomly, here's my opinion on Occam's Razor.
While a magnificent tool for solving things that appear more complicated than they are, I find it's completely useless for Umineko. "Reality is as simple as possible," eh? The whole point of Umineko is to complicate things with magic and fantasy, so that when you attempt to ignore all of it and reach for the simplest answer, you end up way off. The whole Illusion of the Witch prevents reaching the simplest answer.

I was following the thought that the broken promise was to Suit-Beato, since the sin has nothing to do with Dress-Beato (aka Shannon).

I thought it was more of a time limit to him finding the truth. We saw by the end of Episode 4 that Beato was running out of patience for him, since she tried to give up. And by the end of Episode 5, she'd completely given up on Battler succeeding, and allowed herself to be killed, so that she could be put to rest.
Still if the "real" Beato that he's talking about here is Jessica, the line about being like Kinzo would be sensible.

Killing Kinzo in an accident? I think it's more likely for him to be killed in an accident not involving people than one that does. I once again state that there's no proof she even knows he's dead, and doesn't even act once like she thinks he's dead.
Even more so remember 1998. Despite it either being a severe hint or Ryuukishi being an idiot, it's stated that Eva died in a similar way to Kinzo. Meaning she'd have to have died in an accident caused by someone else for this to be true. Though her cause of death is ambiguous, it feels more like she's dying from some internal sickness than an injury.

But it would be even more problematic for the people who are trying to prove that Kinzo had been dead before the conference.

And I completely agree with you. George is one of the most likely to be the mastermind of the murders in my books.

Oh, I'm sure they spin devious schemes. But I don't find them to be likely killers, considering how they end up killed, as in certainly killed and not faking, in most of the Episodes.

That could be explained by the fact there are at least 3 Beatrice in this story, 4 if include Kumasawa/Virgilia. 5 and 6 if we include Ange and Eva. So it's not something that points directly to Jessica either. But even if Jessica happens to be one of the many Beatrice that really wouldn't really be that important.

What is important to us is who "Beato" is. In other words the Beatrice Battler sinned against, the one who is an expert of mystery novels and the one who "asked lambda to give her the power to create the games".

Then again, I wonder why should I trust what Bern said in EP1, when even after EP6 she proves to be quite ignorant on who Beatrice really is.

Well, let me state more clearly how I think this works:

• Battler is in love with Jessica. Jessica is in love with Battler.
• Both possess an intuition that this relationship exists, but no clear knowledge, because both are shy and because the relationship is forbidden anyway with them being cousins.
• To test Jessica's feelings, Battler proposes to Shannon, promising to take her away from the island.
• That he does not actually intend to follow through with this promise is the true sin of Battler, committed against Shannon, not Jessica, to whom he did not promise anything yet. He is basically wilfully deceiving a girl.
• Shannon is the one the sin is committed against, but eventually she gets over it, falling in love with George. We do have offscreen Word of God saying that Shannon+George=Love, don't we, though it's not in red.
• Jessica, however, remains hurt by it for the rest of her life, even though the sin was not committed against her -- because a promise that was rightfully hers was given to someone else.
• Later on, both Jessica and Shannon acquire the title of 'Beatrice'. There are now two people for whom the name is valid.
• Jessica learns that either Battler is possibly not an Ushiromiya or that she is not one. That makes the relationship very important to her again and triggers her plan to force a succession.
• In the scene where the sin is first referred to, Suit-Beatrice (Jessica) actually tells him to remember the sin -- but she is not the one it was committed against. She is now the context for the later red statement 'The sin is not between [this] Beatrice and Battler'. When Meta-Beatrice, which is an amalgam of both Jessicatrice and Shannontrice existing on the board, utters that, she refers to the Suit-Beatrice that Piece-Battler is seeing, but actually shares in both Shannon's and Jessica's feelings, which is why she wants him to apologize.

That sin has to be 'one of the causes of this tragedy'. The easiest way to do it is to cause Kinzo's death through either Jessica's or Shannon's actions, which inevitably results in the mess we see.

The other major component of the mess' triggers is actually Ange, who tactlessly demands that Maria show her magic. This estranges her from Maria and alters the perceptions and motivations of Shannon and Kumasawa indirectly.

For all Ange in particular knows when that scene rolls in, Kinzo died in the endgame explosion together with everyone else. Either Eva immediately dies in an explosion when Ange leaves (which would be fun, mind you!) or what the text really means is that Eva has the same sickness that Kinzo has been diagnosed with prior to his death. Which, mind you, Nanjo never actually describes. Slow heart failure due to atherosclerosis after multiple myocardial infarctions would fit well, since it is actually hereditary.

It is quite possible to cause the death of someone who has a known weak heart by accident, especially considering that at the time, the only serious way to extend their lifespan is coronary artery bypass surgery, as coronary stenting has not yet been well developed or widespread. Curiously, if that happened, Jessica doesn't really have to know up until seeing his body. :)

Because it's not Battler whom she says it to, but us. :)

Mind you, I'm not planning to fight for this hypothesis too much. Unless anyone except me actually cares to try to bring it to a theory level and see if it actually explains anything, it's worthless anyway.