Whenever I watch Madoka interacting with Mami and becoming closer to becoming a magical girl I can't help but feel that she's heading towards her own destruction. When she and Homura first met, Homura told her that she shouldn't change lest she risk losing everything (or something to that effect, I can't remember the exact line). Basically, Homura tells Madoka to stay the way she is, not to change.

But what happens to Madoka? She and Miki meet Mami, a friendly (or seemingly so, anyway) magical girl and Kyubey, who wishes for both of them to enter a contract with him. Madoka seems to disregard Homura's warnings after Mami tells them her idea of Homura's intentions. Madoka has no idea if what Mami is telling her is true*: after all, Mami can't be as nice as she seems as she had threatened to kill Homura a few minutes before that. But she trusts Mami because she tends to trust everyone: Homura (at first), Kyubey, and Mami. She believes that people cannot lie and therein lies a major flaw of her character. This might be the reason Homura approached her in the first place: a naive girl is very prone to ruining her life.

So that is the main question: what could be so bad about becoming a magical girl that Homura would warn Madoka? Death is certainly a risk: Mami tells the two girls that they need a wish that they would risk their life for to become a magical girl. Mami herself often talks about dying: whether it be the implications of witches or her own predicaments in battle. Madoka even witnesses a horrifying battle against a witch. Maybe this was what Homura counted on. That Madoka would be terrified by the ordeals that magical girls have to go through or that she wouldn't have a wish that she would risk her life for. But Madoka shows no signs of backing down after witnessing these events: whether it be her naive trust in Mami or personal optimism she marches forward. And then Homura's conversation with Madoka resurfaces: if being a magical girl is bad enough to warn someone about then surely Madoka, marching onwards to become one, is on the path to an eventual destruction?

I'm not saying Madoka is a horrible character. She is very appealing and, in a normal magical girl anime, her personality would cause her no harm. Her optimism and trust in other people would never backfire on her. But this is not a normal magical girl anime, made obvious by Shinbo's interpretations of magical girls and witches, and Madoka's decisions will resurface. Whether it leads to a personal crossroads or a worse fate is up in the air.

*I do not trust Mami. Her nice appearance belies something darker underneath. This is Shinbo we're talking about, after all.

I agree that she might become a play-doh of sorts in this series; I can easily picture that somewhere along the line that not only will she have to choose between siding with Homura or Mami but even having to choose what will happen to her innocent friends and family, especially Sayaka.

In the end, she will definitely have to make it clear where she stands but at the same time she will have to do so understanding just exactly what she's sacrificing in order to stand up for the side she chooses, though I can imagine her making her final decision mostly with her heart as opposed to logic, which has the potential to lead into a very disastrous conclusion for not just herself, but perhaps for every character in this series, good or bad.

I agree. That sort of crossroads will probably come to play. I, myself, believe that she will choose Homura: Mami's intentions are unclear right now, she could easily be playing them all. Plus, Madoka has said that she doesn't feel as though Homura is as untrustworthy as Mami makes her out to be: she has implied that she would like to get along with Homura. Perhaps the beginning sequence of the first episode is a harbringer of things to come.

I'm also noticing a slight rift between Madoka and Miki. It's very subtle now but I've noticed a disagreement between the two that could come to blows in the future. Miki, having not known Homura before meeting Mami and Kyubey, is very trustful of what Mami says and very distrustful of Homura. Madoka would like to reconcile with Homura and thinks that 'she can't be all that bad.' If a choice comes where Madoka will have to choose between siding with Mami or Homura she might have to figure Miki into that situation as well.

I do agree that Madoka will decide with her heart. It would be out of character for her to pick with logic.

I cannot stress this enough because it seems to come up a lot.Mami never threatened to kill anyone,the translator misheard a line and made a mistake,a v2 of the script was released with that line changed to something like "next time I'll ignore you"

Not much else to add as I pretty much concur with everything you've speculated about so far, particularly when it concerns the relationship development between Sayaka and Madoka.

Also, did Mami REALLY paint Homura evil? Maybe she insinuated the inevitable fact that they would eventually clash with Homura whilst carrying out their duties as Mahou Shoujo, but IIRC, it's more or less Sayaka that's establishing Homura as the antagonist moreso than any other character. Madoka has displayed apparent interest in establishing a union with Homura and Mami has displayed subtle signs of companionship with Homura. It's not only the moment when she offered the Grief Seed to Homura that comes to mind nor when she allows Homura to get a head start to chase the Witch that Mami allowed to escape in the first episode, but it's mostly her response to Madoka's musing over Homura that gets me the most (script isn't exactly accurate):

Madoka: "I wonder if I'm able to get along with her...."
Mami: "That's up to her."

Mami's speech concerning the unspoken competition for the Grief Seeds did insinuate a conflict with Homura, but IIRC, she has never outright labelled Homura Akemi as a direct antagonist towards her, Madoka, or Sayaka.

Sayaka, on the other hand, has done nothing but aggressively push Homura away under the assumption that Homura wants to kill Madoka, which is debunked by Kyuubey. Even so, she makes it clear that she, Mami, and Madoka (at least for the time being, supposedly) stand on one side, the "righteous side", and Homura stands alone on hers, the "evil side", arguably all because she wants to protect Madoka with all of her powers.

Of course, theoretically, matters get REALLY MESSY when Madoka eventually steps over the line and crosses over to Homura.

I haven't much to discuss since I agree with most of what you said (I swear we're on the same wave length when it somes to this show).

Mami has never outright stated that Homura is evil but she hasn't attempted to paint her in a good light. I imagine that their relationship goes back much earlier than this series: perhaps they were once friends like Sayaka and Madoka but split over certain decisions. She might still want to rekindle that friendship but something is holding that back.

I agree that Sayaka feels very protective over Madoka. This leads to another speculation: what if Sayaka loves Madoka? It's not to far off the mark to assume this because the magical girl genre has always had the leader and her best friend being very close, constantly parodied as a lover's relationship. However, sometimes this is played seriously as in Cardcaptor Sakura: Tomoyo has outright stated that she is in love with Sakura. It could very much be the same thing between Sayaka and Madoka: Sayaka loves her but knows that Madoka would never feel the same way.

Although Madoka may never return her feelings, Sayaka can still protect her while they are both under Mami's guidance. This would make Madoka's eventual cross over to Homura's aid that much more painful. Sayaka would consider this a betrayal on Madoka's part (and wouldn't it be even more ironic if Sayaka's actions had caused Madoka to leave her in the first place?), which might cause a fall from grace for her. I'm not saying the love is definite (for all we know Sayaka just feels a very strong friendship) but it is a possibility.

But I digress, this thread is about Madoka and not her friend. I've been wondering what would cause Madoka to cross over to Homura's side? Why does she feel so sympathetic toward Homura? Even if you consider Homura a good person all of her actions up to Madoka meeting Mami could be considered agressive. Was it Madoka's vision of Homura fighting a battle that is influencing her?

Seems like a couple of very likely possibilities:
- Sayaka fails as a Magical Girl and becomes a Witch. Madoka feels betrayed by Mami.
- Some unexpected harm comes to Madoka's familly / friends due to the unintended consequences of becoming a Magical Girl or getting her wish granted.