AnimeSuki Forum - View Single Post - International Saimoe League 2012

For those interested, the list of entrants for postseason I is pretty much set in stone, although exact placement may still vary.

My prediction are based on the hypothesis that even with partial scores thrown in the match, the number of wins will be the primary deciding factor, because it takes a lot of uneven strength over the season for partial score to overcome the 3 score obtained from winning, and in ISML character strength is very stable.

Spoiler for Nova predictions:

Spoiler for Stella predictions:

2012-08-13, 23:17	Link #2556
RegalStar Mishaguji-sama Join Date: Oct 2010	For those interested, the list of entrants for postseason I is pretty much set in stone, although exact placement may still vary. My prediction are based on the hypothesis that even with partial scores thrown in the match, the number of wins will be the primary deciding factor, because it takes a lot of uneven strength over the season for partial score to overcome the 3 score obtained from winning, and in ISML character strength is very stable. Spoiler for Nova predictions: #1: Kanade(35) (No contest) #2: Eucliwood(34) (Ditto) #3: Kuroneko(33) (Yup) #4: Yui(32) (Yeah) #5: Yuri(31) (Of course) #6-8: Kirino, Sena, Kobato (29 each) (exact sequence probably has some leeway, but it's most likely that order) #9: Inori(27) (If she can win against Aria, which is looking more likely by the day) #10: Charlotte(26) (No real chance for variance. Best possibility is losing against Erio, and that's still not very likely) #11: Aria(25) (If she can win against Inori she'll be able to compete for partial score with Inori and Charlotte, but she will probably lose) #12-14: BRS, Erio and Victorique(23) (Another three-way tie. BRS can break off the tie by scoring a surprise win against Aria, the other two have no such chances. Exact sequence is probably BRS/Erio/Victorique, though the latter two are volatile) #15-16: Yozora (19-21) and Haruna (19-20) (Yozora still has two uncertain matches left against Kurisu and Haruna, Haruna has one against Yozora herself) Spoiler for Stella predictions: #1-2: Taiga (33-34) and Mikoto (33-34) (Taiga's partial score is likely higher than Mikoto's, so she'd have to lose to Shana AND have Mikoto win agianst Azusa to lose #1. Granted both events are fairly likely) #3: Shana (32-33) (Her partial score is likely lower than Mikoto's and higher than the rest of the pack, so she's fairly stable here) #4-6: Nagato, Azusa and Mio (31-32) (It's very uncertain how they'll match up here, because they all have one match left that's just so tough to predict.) #7: Saber (30) (Very stable) #8: Haruhi (28) (She might have a chance to pass Saber if she can win against both Mio and Nagato - I think her partial score might be a bit higher. The wins are not likely to happen though, much less both of them at once.) #9: Hinagiku (27) (Stable) #10-11: Hitagi and Nadeko (25-26) (Largely depends on how their match turns out. Nadeko has a chance of losing to Yui which might pull her to #12, but it's unlikely) #12: Yui (24) (Unless both she and Hitagi win against Nadeko. A three-way tie would still make her lose out on partial score I think) #13: Shinobu (22) (Stable) #14: Rin (21) (Stable) #15: Illya (20) (Stable) #16: Louise (19) (Stable)