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Remember that the atomic bombs were originally intended for Germany as the target rather than Japan. If Russia falls but Britain holds to August 1945...Berlin will be nuked.
As for the rest...Without an embargo against Japan, I wonder if the Germans would have tried to ally with Japan. Also wihout US aid, one has to wonder if the Nationalist in China would have gotten anywhere and thus not setting up for the populist Communists to overrun the place. Or if aid would have come more from Germany or Russia into China in the 1930s. Would the Germans find the Japanese more worthy of taking out Communists if China's communists movement didn't expand?
With no embargo, Japan would not have the need to invade either Russia or Southeast Asia while still working on China.
In Europe, the question would be if Britian would fall? They might not get lend lease stuff, but if the US followed its World War One practise, it would trade with both sides (free market and capitalism)...Britain getting more since the Royal Navy could still stop ships going to Germany and probably also stop American shipping heading to France. If the German uboat policy was similar to the World War One policy, the Germans would eventually get the American angry enough to declare war just like in 1917. Remember that Wilson ran on a ticket that was to avoid getting involved in Europe. The Republicans wanted to get straight into it that election, but lost. The unrestricted submarine warfare pushed the American under Wilson too far and they declared war. Nazi Germany pushed buttons far farther than that German Empire did in the First World War. It would become only a matter of time before there was a war.
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