[haguruma]

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Also I think we put too much faith in the witch hunters' document finding ability. I could be obsessed with a murder, and still really only have accesss to public release info and whatever I read on the message boards. Documents aren't that easy to steal in general, and most casual enthusiasts would not be that way inclined. Though I suspect Ryu just never thought too deeply on this, for fear of a headache.

I thought about this discussion a lot today, because it is one of the things that actually still open to a lot of discussion: In how far was the investigation of Rokkenjima unrealistically sloppy?
I for myself arrived at the point that I would say, even the police would be at a loss at certain points. Think about it, you have 17 people missing with Maria very likely being a casualty and the others being at least likely, you have only one survivor who refuses to talk and two highly doubt-worthy reports of mysterious origin.

Spoiler for Victims:

Ushiromiya Kinzo: Living secluded on Rokkenjima for at least the last 3 years.
Ushiromiya Krauss: Discovered to have misused the family fortune for failed investments. First in line for headship. Living on Rokkenjima.
Ushiromiya Rudolph: Discovered to be in (possibly) illegal business transactions. Third in line for headship. Son left the family for 6 year.
Ushiromiya Rosa: Discovered to be in high debts due to her failed relationship and failing company. Fourth in line for headship. Reported for mistreatment of her daughter.
Ushiromiya Natsuhi: Husband of Krauss (likely to know a huge deal of his failed investments). Living on Rokkenjima.
Ushiromiya Hideyoshi: Former head of a restaurant chain; bought out by his business partners.
Ushiromiya Kyrie: Former sucessor of a yakuza branch. Daughter (Battler's half-sister) survived and will be the one to inherit the Ushiromiya fortune.
Ushiromiya Jessica: Fifth in line for headship; secretly longing after a servant. Living on Rokkenjima.
Ushiromiya George: Sixth in line for headship; in a secret relationship with a servant.
Ushiromiya Battler: Seventh in line for headship; came back after 6 years of absence.
Ushiromiya Maria: Reported to be mistreated by her mother. Failing to make human connections at school. Name was found on message bottle reports. Ninth in line for headship.
Ronoue Genji: First Servant, directly serving Kinzo. Rumored to take on secret jobs from his employer. Access to all keys and intimate knowledge of the island. Stationed at the island.
Shannon: Long-time maid and orphan from family owned orphanage Fukuin House. Very few background information, employee-name is given by the orphanage for the time of employment at Rokkenjima. Only servant to serve for a elongated period.
Kanon: No information known except being a Fukuin orphan. Is reported to have accompanied Jessica to a school festival.
Kumasawa Chiyo: Long time part-timer on Rokkenjima. Access to all keys and intimate knowledge of the islands folklore and myths.
Gohda Toshirou: Newly employed cook.
Nanjo Terumasa: Close friend of Ushiromiya Kinzo. Has served as a private doctor to the family for years and has close knowledge of the family.

Survivor:
Ushiromiya Eva: Wife of Hideyoshi. Second in line for headship. Found outside the explosion radius in a mansion hidden in the forest - only directly accessible through second harbor and (now collapsed) tunnel.

Who and what would you start to investigate? There is no direct evidence of a crime due to the explosion; the only thing hinting towards that is the existence of two conflicting reports of highly doubt-worthy origin. Eva refuses to speak up about the actual events and is thus of course rumored to be responsible.

Even if it was to be proven that the handwriting in the message bottle matched that of the (by herself doubt-worthy) "Yasuda -Shannon- Sayo", what would that proof by itself? One bottle was found on the day of the event, the other was proven to have been sent out in a similar time-frame, the content asks for the crime to be solved, making it questionable if it was written by the culprit of an unknown crime.
Also important is the fact that the existence of this "Shannon" as well as her close co-worker "Kanon" is doubt-worthy by itself, which makes it harder for any motive or background to be constructed.

Even if this "Shannon" was a fake persona, the most likely solution to be reached was for her to have worked herself into the family for the fortune by getting close to George.
The existence of a possible 10th heir (Lion) is highly doubt-worthy beyond a rumor-level. Yasu's birth was never revealed or given in any official birth-records. The whole existence of that person was kept a close secret between Kinzo, Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo and Natsuhi, just as the existence of Kuwadorian Beatrice was between Kinzo, Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo and Rosa and Beatrice Castiglioni's was a secret between the first four. Only Kawabata knew of female items being shipped to Kuwadorian, but not of any concrete resident.