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Originally Posted by Helius
Well right now they seem to be moving at a rate of 1-2 chapters per episode (eps1 and 2 each covers ch1 and parts of ch2 while ep3 chs15-16) and they're putting quite a bit of focus on the training flashbacks which leads me to think that they intend to drag the Trost arc well into the mid-season.
It also doesn't look like they want to cram in as much story as possible and ep2 demonstrates that. From a creative standpoint it makes sense to end the season with a cliffhanger/foreshadowing and imo there's none as glorious and menacing as the scouting legion riding into the plains at the end of chapter 21.
That's not to say your deductions are without merits, but the Female Titan arc is quite long so I don't think they'll be able to cover the whole of it with what's left of the 24-5 episodes lest they risk cutting it off midway or condensing the Trost arc either of which is not something I'd like to see happening.
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But think about this. The show is 25 episodes. By the end of episode 4, chapters 1-3 and 15-18 will be accounted for. From the anime magazine summaries, we know for a fact that episode 5 is the start of their mission post-training. It also has the same episode title as chapter 5.
Even if we assume that the pace slows to a crawl of 1 chapter per episode all the way to the end (which would be a really bad thing especially for action heavy chapters where several of them can easily fit into a single episode), ep5-25 = 21 episodes. With 7 chapters already accounted for, that would bring us up to chapter 28.
Since there are a few chapters which are simply pure action with a small amount of dialogue and actual character interaction, getting to chapter 30-34 (or even more if they decide to move faster) within 25 episodes is really easy. They'll probably be able to fit more original content not in the manga along the way too.