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It makes sense that the culprit knows about this "accident" or w/e happened in the end. If the culprit wasnt sure about this "accident", then he/she wouldnt have bothered about writing the message bottles with all the fantasy stories. No accident = police/detectives can find out what really happened, thus the fantasy stories would be meaningless. So i think the culprit had it all prepared, therefore i find it hard to believe it was something like a natural disaster coz then it'd be unpredictable. If he/she wasnt sure that it was going to happen why'd he/she bother on writing the msgs bottles?
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