Now let us dissect the clues a bit further. We can analyze what happened to Rika in each of the chapters:
Onikakushi-hen
Rika watanagashi'ed (assumed), The Great Hinamizawa Disaster occurred
Watanagashi-hen
Rika murdered by Shion, The Great Hinamizawa Disaster
DID NOT occur
Tatarigoroshi-hen
Rika watanagashi'ed, The Great Hinamizawa Disaster occurred
Himatsubushi-hen
Rika watanagashi'ed, The Great Hinamizawa Disaster occurred
Meakashi-hen
Rika committed suicide, The Great Hinamizawa Disaster
DID NOT occur
Tsumihoroboshi-hen
Rika watanagashi'ed, The Great Hinamizawa Disaster occurred
By looking at this, we see that while Rika does die everytime, there are times where the Great Hinamizawa Disaster occur and does not occur. So we can scratch out the possibility that Rika's death automatically triggers the Great Hinamizawa Disaster. However, upon further analysis, we can also see that the Great Hinamizawa Disaster happens whenever Rika is
watanagashi'ed. Hence, it is safe to say that if Rika is watanagashi'ed then the Great Hinamizawa Disaster occurs. Based on this, we can somewhat deduce that a watanagashi'ed Rika is somehow tied to the Great Hinamizawa Disaster.
Now this is a bit strange don't you think? If Rika is indeed the Oyashiro-sama and if her death does cause the Great Hinamizawa Disaster, then the disaster should occur everytime she is killed. But this is not the case.
Now let us ask the question - who watanagashi'ed Rika? This is not known as of yet until Minagoroshi-hen. The two parts where the disaster did not occur, we knew who killed Rika. It was Shion in Watanagashi and Rika commited her own suicide in Meakashi. But who watanagashi'ed poor Rika? (And before you ask; No, Keiichi
DID NOT kill Rika in Tatarigoroshi-hen.)
Rules X, Y, and Z
There are several "Rules" that bind Rika and her friends in a dead-end loop preventing their escape from June 1983 happily.
Rule X: Somebody goes insane which leads to murders of others.
Rule Y: _____________ kills Tomitake and Takano, and when this happens, it is the turning point of the story. Their deaths signal the upcoming death of Rika, with the exception when the culprit of Rule X overwrites Rule Y.
Rule Z: The fear will be instigated by suspecting the Sonozaki's bluff that they are behind everything.
Klashikari managed to sum this up pretty well, it should be noted to listed here (w/ grammar corrections):
Quote:
Originally Posted by Klashikari
To be short, the Rule Z is feeding the paranoia of Rule X. Rule Y has something to do with Rule X, and can be interfered by Rule X.
If you cannot break the three rules altogether, then fate cannot be stopped. Even if you prevent Rule X to happen, Rule Z will feed it, and it will replay again. At the same time, Rule Z is covering Rule X; everyone thinks that the Sonozaki family is behind the bizarre events around Hinamizawa.
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