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It's an interesting topic, actually, to ask what would have happened had Saber still been around. I'd imagine Shirou would still have fallen for Sakura in the same was as he did in HF, and the Shirou-Shinji battle would have gone the same way because Shirou would have told Saber to remain at home (she'd likely have come along with Rin, though). The following fight would have been interesting, because whereas Archer was intending to kill Sakura, Saber would likely have fought Rider (and, really, Rider wouldn't have stood a chance 2-on-1) but Shirou would have stopped her from killing Sakura. Rider would likely have been defeated, though, which would have changed things somewhat.
No idea where it would have gone from there. It could have turned out better than the true route (perhaps with an ending much like HF True, only with Saber remaining rather than Rider, or even with both), or it could be that having Saber around would have forced Shirou to kill Sakura, thereby causing him to break down and making for a thoroughly unhappy ending.
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