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Old 2012-08-31, 12:33   Link #30274
Captain Bluebeard
Detective, Witch, Pirate.
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Ruins of the Golden Land
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
No. You just don't understand the mathematics here at all.

Michael Jordan is indeed no more or less likely to be encountered by any random individual who happens to encounter any other random individual. If I were to say "I'm going to go outside and meet a completely random person today," then the odds that would happen are pretty close to 100% unless I just happen to live in such an isolated environment that there aren't any people to encounter. However, if I say "I'm going to go outside and meet Michael Jordan today," the odds that would happen are generally pretty low. That's true whether it's Michael Jordan or my friend Bob Smith.

If I have a preexisting relationship or circumstance that makes a situation more likely, however, it's more believable because it's more mathematically probable. If I were to say "I'm going to go outside and meet Bob Smith today," and Bob Smith is my neighbor who is often in his yard when I leave the house in the morning, the chance of meeting Bob is vastly higher.
I really can't understand why this seems so impossible that you can't accept it. After all, not everything that happens to a person has to follow mathematic probabilty.

For example, if you go outside and say "I'm going to go outside and meet Bob Smith", of course the chances of meeting him are pretty low, like you said, but that doesn't mean that you will never come across Bob Smith when you go out. It's absurd to assume that just because of mathematic probabity.

And after all, it's not like Ikuko was any key player that her encounter with Battler was bound to bring some massive development or a deux ex machina for the story that would make it all too convenient. It may have turned out similarly if it were "Bob Smith" that discovered him. At any rate, since he had an accident and was lying in the middle of the street, someone would discover him at some point. Why is it a hell of a coincidence that it was Ikuko who did? They didn't even know each other. And there's the Shimoda factor, (as you said, for convenience), he had an accident close to where Ikuko lived. It's awfully strategic, but you put it like an astronomically small chance, one that's so damn unbelievable. I just can't understand that's coming from.

It's tough to be blue...
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