I think there is a causal relationship between more porn and less sex crime.
There are a lot of variables and things to consider, but every time we see porn go up, we see sex crime go down. Not just in Japan either, but across the world, in culture and situations that share little with Japan's with the except of an increase in porn and a decrease in sex crime.
Not very strong basis for causal, but I think there is some there.
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With the above caveat in mind, refer back to the many concerns highlighted by respected organisations in the Reuters report that started this thread. It is the contention that Japan is not defining and not treating such crimes the way some other countries do. By implication, the suggestion is that these numbers are low in Japan not necessarily because "Japan is a safer place because of easy availability of kiddie porn", but simply because they are not treated as seriously as they would be elsewhere.
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Regardless of how Japan compares to other countries, Japan compares to its older self pretty decently. And as porn went up (I know the U of Hawaii study didn't make the strongest case for this, but hang with me), sex crime went down. Also, if anything, definitions of sex crime only got stricter and increased education would probably increase reported rate since more people know what sex crime is and what to do. Despite these two things, sex crime numbers still kept going down.
So, "Japan is safe because of porn" is pretty shaky, but I would be confident saying that "Japan is relatively safer with porn than it would be without."