I can only speculate what would of happened if Tomoyo and Azusa had their match during Amethyst rather than Topaz after the latest K-on episode. With a difference of only 14 votes, I can assume Azusa would of made up more than the 14 votes necessary to beat Tomoyo.
I don't know if Mio has reached Shana's level yet, but if there is an episode similar to Azusa for Mio before her matchup with either Mikoto or even Hina, I would be tempted to say she would have a chance.
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