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I don't think I understood your use of time. 24:00 into October 6 meaning the final list of survivors with all the previous murder sets achieved, or the 24:00 at the beginning of October 6, meaning the first set of murders have just occurred?
Thing is, unless I'm mistaken, all the people alive at the island at that point has survived past the first set at least once. On the other hand, as you've listed those 6 are the only ones who have ever made it into the the final survivor's list. I would add Natsuhi to that list though she died from a head wound (this is still debatable even now) at almost the exact time of midnight.
Of course I don't think we have enough evidence yet to deduce a possible mindset of a possible mastermind, however it is probably more likely to first consider that the mastermind who is the same in every game would ideally want to survive his gambit. As it stands, only Battler fits this role (discounting being shot by Eva in Ep3, maybe he survives?).
And yet, we may need to discount Battler as the mastermind as the "detective" prior to that bitch Erika, as well as being the continuous existence of Piece Battler of Ep1 into Meta-Battler.
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