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Everything I've read implies they basically don't "get" why an entertainment product designed and targeted for a domestic audience (Japan Otaku) is getting such mileage across the ocean. They don't get it, don't understand it, and they don't want to mess with it (hence the licensing). The only reason they seem to rail against fansubs at all is that they mistakenly think it will result in "backwash" into their domestic market. Now I differentiate between broadcast files and DVD-rip files. DVD-rips? I'm right with them, that's a 1:1 theft within their domestic market and they should pursue those vigorously (for now).
I could argue effectively that they're saturating their own market with mediocre material. If you have 5 quality shows a year out of 50, then 10% sell well ... 5 shows out of 200, then 2% sell well.
Couple that with a fairly fixed pile of money (discretionary income) or more likely, a *declining* pile of money in the hands of consumers ... then naturally its going to decline after a spike.
I'm not going to call them stupid.... but I also have a lifetime of experience of watching my relatives and coworkers from Japan often letting "stubborn" win out over good business sense.
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