Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamui4356
Israel has nukes as well. Iran launches, Israel launches a counter attack. They won't care if it was a bunch of crazies in military or the government. Iran ceases to exist as a nation. However, Iran being an islamic nation, they would likely try to avoid hitting Jerusalem, as it's the third holiest city in Islam. It also happens to be functioning as Israel's capital, so the Israelli government might just make it through largely intact assuming no one else takes advantage of the situation.
Let's assume Iran doesn't hold back and is able to take Israel out completely in a first strike with no counterattack. Iran just nuked Jerusalem and is now embargoed by, if not at war with the rest of the islamic world.
There is simply no scenerio I can see for Iran launching a nuclear weapon against Israel that works out to their benefit.
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Iran does not have to launch it from its own country. It can give the bomb to a terrorist organization who would gladly use it on Israel. And, even though you may be able to trace it back to Iran, it may be too late to prevent the initial attack.
Second, if Israel launches a nuclear attack on Iran and succeeds (in terms of the casualties), while stopping an Iran nuke, it will make things difficult for Israel. Yes, it may have prevented the attack, but, the end result would tell differently. And, you can say peace goodbye forever in that region, and it will get a lot more harder for Israeli people to live in security, if that ever happens.
I am guessing, they would assume the second scenario is a big factor Israel may decide many times before taking action, while Iran can use underhanded methods (like using al kaeda) to achieve success.
That is why Israel would never want to give Iran the opportunity to have something like that ready for their use. There is no way you can say for sure, Iran wouldn't try something that crazy.