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Alright, so now that the first BD box has come out with the translated interviews with the ufotable staff, we now have several key episodes to look out for:
14-15: "Unbelievable things happen", "characters will be thinned out"
17: First episode by Tokushima team, "story is moving ahead"
18: Kiritsugu gets a flashback, "new original scenes"
So, going with this as a guide, it appears that the Caster battle will be spread across two episodes (14-15), Risei will die in episode 16, the Lancer team will be eliminated in episode 17, and we'll be getting the Intermission starting from episode 18.
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