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Like I said, it was really because the stars aligned the way he wanted, and she let her guard down somewhat because she happened to be worried about Shirou that night as they talked, which would be the difference, the scene in question points out that her finding out Shirou had the mark was the dealbreaker.
Its possible that he could take advantage of other things(he uses Rin, Shirou, and her pity for Shinji in HF for example), but Nasu 100% confirmed that it would not go down as it had in the other routes, nor would the Black Grail be manifested.
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