[anselfir]

Originally Posted by Darklightz

snip

what you have said is what they want you to think, but they suggest this to you in such cheap ways such as character voice overs, nonsequitur explanations of "self evidence," and basic stereotypes like mad genius is always right. The data simply will not provide for these easy solutions. To the audience, the deductions may seem vigorous, but really they are proceeding in a contrived and artificial way.

When Kira killed Lind L Taylor,L found that Kira would respond to confrontation.But when the FBI agents died,it told L a clear message that Kira is afraid of being caught,meaning that he can get caught.A person with a completely fullproof way of killing wouldn't care how many detectives were watching him.

Why was the death of the FBI agent sending that clear message? It could just be that kira is smacking them in the face, and not merely afraid of getting caught. To suppose kira is in a position of weakness, and hiding from the authorities like a petty criminal, is to totally ignore the unexplored potential of the death note. Really, I see a naturalistic rationality here not unlike those who were afraid of falling down from a round earth. The serious non sequitur like "he is afraid of getting caught, therefore he can get caught." can you suppose that he is afraid of getting caught without assuming that he can be caught, and therefore engage in circular logic?

When the 2 families were under surveillance and Kira only killed 2 minor criminals,it told L that Kira cannot simply kill anyone he wants,he needs to gather information first.The fact that Kira only killed 2 minor criminals shows that as his access to information is restricted,so is his range of targets.

Light had scheduled deaths several days ahead of time, so there were people dying at a normal rate, even when he was under surveillance, otherwise he would be busted. The 2 petty criminals were there just to provide him with an alibi, that these guys died when he apparantly had no access to their information, and therefore he is in the clear. This does not reveal any information about kira's limited abilities if light is not assumed to be kira. The type of information here is purely risky. According to L himself, to assume kira's power is limited using this information has a risk of 95%+.

Additionnally,through all this L came to know Kira as someone methodical who careful think each of his moves.

No. Maybe he believes that this is the case, and the audience may trust him for various reasons, but the story itself is not the cause of this gigantic leap of insight. Certainly L is struggling to figure out Kira, but he started off from scratch, and has essentially no bounds. Ryuk could have killed the same guys Light killed, in the same manner, just to toy with L, and L would not know it. That his particular naturalistic rationality happens to coincide more or less with reality (imagine if L got confused for a slight second, and went on a wild goose chase The show would be ruined, of course, but how realistic is L deducing everything right, really, considering he has so little to start off with) is a contrived part of the story, and I am increasingly irked by how forced it gets.

With all this information,L could put his life on the line,knowing that if he died at the school ceremony or shortly after,then Light is Kira,because he would be the only one to have information about him outside the investigation team,but also the assurance that if Light is Kira,he wouldn't dare kill him yet.

Eh? what information? That Kira kills by some pattern? Responding to L's moves? L must be a real expert about women then, able to comprehend every vague detail that remotely reminds him of something absolutely accurately as to put his life on the line against an unknown power. Good luck L, nice knowing ya.

because he would be the only one to have information about him outside the investigation team

I'm highlighting this. So what? So the chief police guy's son had a conversation with L, in the middle of a thousand people, and therefore it is enough to arrest the chief police guy's son? Seriously, with L dead, the investigation would die, and Light would be in the clear, since there is simply not enough evidence to make him suspicious, much less to convict him. It is the fact that Light doesn't know whether L is telling the truth or not that's preventing him from striking. That detail, is not dependent on what L knows(a story-based development, L's knowledge is built up from story events), but what Light is, which is manipulated easily by limiting the power of the death note. It is not that Light is afraid of what will happen if he really kills L. The deterrence only works if L is alive and can use that information to form his own judgments, after that he will try to collect enough evidence to convince a jury or something, who knows how the legal system works in this.

So, they are moving way too fast here. L made a boneheaded decision, got lucky because of the limits of the death note, and the audience buys it, all applause!