[nagare]

Spoiler for @Exilon:

Originally Posted by Exilon

this is kinda ... amazing O_o I would not be able to write so much text, but your theories are very well conceived...

About Nanjo's death, and because in my theory Nanjo is the culprit behind many of the murders, there's also another possibility you might have not considered, that is, a victim actually killed Nanjo because they could suspect he is the murderer. I do play chess, isolated pawns are quite hard to defend (because they usually appear in the endgame) but can get promoted quite easily if the other side doesn't have many pieces as well. Rings any bells?
There might also be a small chance Nanjo is an accomplice, and is killed because he's either not needed anymore or, possibly, he is an "isolated pawn" and can be destroyed by the other side quite easily. I don't recall anyone mentioning what side Nanjo was "playing" for.

Back in my Ep 02 notes towards the end, I listed for each "Beatrice" (since even back then I believe there were multiple) possible suspects. EP 02 highly suggests that there is an accomplish. Also in this episode, letters from Beatrice is not found beyond Night 1. IMO, the accomplish with the ring is already dead and for one reason or another, the ring cannot be recovered or that the surviving accomplish cannot forge the same handwriting (and it is handwritten as seen in EP 02) of the first letter.

a victim actually killed Nanjo because they could suspect he is the murderer

Isn't that the same as what I wrote? Sorry, I'm not following how that's any different. Are you suggesting Nanjo is alone in all these acts of murder in all the episodes? That I am 100% disagree with, whoever is the murderer, there needs to be an accomplish. For example, in EP 02 Nanjo has a solid alibi for Jessica+Kannon's death. Rosa, Nanjo, George, Battler, and Maria were at the sanctuary. And in EP 01, Nanjo could not have killed Kannon unless Kannon's death was done by a trap or he had an accomplish.

I do play chess, isolated pawns are quite hard to defend (because they usually appear in the endgame) but can get promoted quite easily if the other side doesn't have many pieces as well. Rings any bells?

Nope =/ I'm not familiar enough with chess tactics. While I know basic chess rules like how the pieces move, promotion, castling, etc, I don't know tactics. I'm not sure what you are getting at here. In your description it seems that you believe that Nanjo is the pawn? Perhaps, I'm misunderstanding you or I'm misunderstanding who the pawn is. I thought the isolated pawn in this scenario is Jessica as she cannot protect the space in front of her or attack it, and Nanjo is stuck defending the pawn. Perhaps you suggesting they are both isolated pawns? Please explain as I really don't understand...

BTW the promotion angel is really interesting. I don't understand how that'll play here, but that's probably something worth looking into.

Also, as for the number, could it be a combination for some safe? Dunno, just trying to make it simple.

q1) Safe for what? If it's related to the riddle, Eva and Rosa were able to solve the riddle without such number. I don't see how it's connected.

q2) Why now? Why write a safe combination on a door after 15 people are killed.

Sorry, I don't see why a safe would suddenly come into the picture.
I'm not saying my suggestion is correct, but I just don't see how one could come to this conclusion.

Spoiler for @theacefrehley <- should use spoiler tags more often:

Originally Posted by theacefrehley

My guess is (a)+(b).

We are prone to take Rosa as stupid, after all, during the solving of the riddle she did not have much participation. But I guess she is just not that much

I don't think Rosa is dumb at all. In EP 02 she shows she is quite intelligent, but I don't see her being much smarter than Eva (although she does claims to be in EP 02) just by looking at her current situation socially, financially, and her profession which her siblings laugh off as a joke.

I think she already knew about where the 'golden village' was and feared that she alone would not be able to secure her share of the gold and 'slipped' some hints to Eva to have an 'ally', as Eva is known to be very sly. With this setting she would have Eva as her ally or, in the worst case scenario, Krauss and Rudolf, if Eva tried anything funny. If she came up alone claiming: "I found the gold, I'm the next head and I'll have 62,5% of the gold", it could induce a conspiracy of the other 3 together against her (it's better to share among 3 than among 4), as she doesn't have the 'poisonous nature' of the other 3. The strategy is to split the other 3.

This part I'm in agreement with.

Part 14:
If we are to believe all that talk about Asumu, jealousy and Rudolf+Kyrie's love story, even Kyrie can have a killer instinct inside her in this story. In my 'game impression' post, I said the criminal could be one or more people, but they could be different in each game because many, if not all, of them could have a killer instinct inside that just needed something to trigger it. And Beatrice would be the personification of this, as it seems the criminal(s) want to give the impression the Witch does exist.

I don't believe that all the murders are commited by the same person, but the style and the fact we have a repeated killing (Kinzo brunt corpse) suggests at the very least Kinzo's death was a pre-determined murder. Thus at the very least, there is a repeated offender for that case. There are other kills that I think are done by other persons but for the most part I think "Beatrice" is the same person. As to why I think "Beatrice" is the same killer as the person who burns Kinzo's corpse... this is determined by the letter that has been left by that corpse in EP 01 and EP 03. The seal and envelop also suggest it is the same killer as many other murders in the various episodes.

It makes sense
But, it's interesting to note tha the 'corpses' of Rudolf, Kyrie and Hideyoshi are found on the same place later, in the hall. This is becoming quite a playacting

It's really an assumption I made that they are. As for the Beato meta world body search, they do all strange things in the Meta World. Since they can rewind, press foward, and stop time, as well as call upon the dead as witness and whatnot, I will take anything time related in the Meta World related with a grain of salt.

Could it be for the sake of forcing the blame onto Eva? Like a revenge for something?

Quite possible.

We do not know how Battler finds Eva is the killer in the real world. We just see him crying and Eva shooting him. This has to be related to Nanjo's killer. I'm sure about this.

Possibilities that I can think of:
1) Battler found a body where it shouldn't be. Eva then dragged it back to where it should be after killing Battler.

2) The "dead" spoke or left a dying message after killing Nanj. Eva destroys the evidence later after killing Battler.

3) Simply Jessica said something. I doubt this b/c Battler knew Jessica already had an inate bias towards Eva over the accident plus she was blinded. We know Eva wasn't there when Nanjo was attacked so she couldn't say I heard Eva say "blah blah blah."

4) Eva dropped something that she shouldn't have, or said something that she shouldn't known.

5) Battler made a wild assumption. Doubtful as he was with her the entire time.

6) Battler realizes the gun, Eva is holding is not the same gun she had when the adults first distributed the guns. Meaning this is the 410 or she had Krauss', Rosa's, or Rudolf's gun instead of hers. I also think this is doubtful. Well maybe not if its the 410. Eva did shoot once. This accidentally discharged bullet might be what Battler found which he came to the conclusion...? I still think it's doubtful. I don't see Battler being an expert on ballistic forensics.

Spoiler for @Rias:

Hmm...Matthew from Bible theory sounds pretty promising. However, as Peroyasha pointed out, the writer of the message, or who the message is aimed at, seems to be the problem. Also, looking at the TIPS for George, "０７１５１１２９。唱えれば、小さな黄金郷が、開かれる", does that suggest that it has something to do with the gold...? or the answer to the culprit?

Something I just realized. I made a bad assumption. In EP 03, it was never mentioned what those magic circle/square said on the door. I just assumed it was the same Solomon sign as the previous episodes. So probably, Mathews or some other directions may have been on the door. We don't know. Maria never told us anything this episode.

Rias, you also make a good point with George's tip. I didn't think of that.

I wonder if it is hinting on a "fake Battler". 0715 is something obvious and everyone knows, Battler's birthday. Perhaps 1129 is something that only the REAL battler would know? For example, Enje's birthday or something. Perhaps George/Kyrie noticed about a fake Battler? After all, boys can change quite a bit from 12 to 18.
There has been various points that makes Battler pretty suspicous in all 3 episodes:
Ep1: -Knows about the "Magical Circle of the Sun" at a time that was impossible for him to know
- Boiler Room...could he had allowed his accomplice to escape?
- He's the person to notice the letters in Ginzo's room, that ultimately allowed the other 3 to be killed.
- TIPS: "could've been a happy world for everyone, but thanks to him that world is no more" (something like that)...suggesting that he's the cultprit?
Ep2: -Shannon room: Beatrice said 全然駄目だぜ before killing off Shannon. Does that hints that Battler's behind it in the anti-fantasy sense?
-Letter again. Perhaps he put that so he has a reason to go somewhere else alone?
Ep3 -George and Maria doesn't seem to notice it's Battler until Battler self introduces himself...Jessica knows by Battler's way of speaking.

Battler being involved is a possibility. But he also has many alibis as well. There's several murders he could have not preformed, but if he is an accomplish then there's much to think about. I have a preference to discount the main character as the villain/unreliable source until I have no other choice. This is personally b/c 1) I want to root for someone ^^; and 2) nearly all clues will be presented to the reader through the main character's perspective. So to doubt the main character from the beginning creates a lot more information to process. At this point, because Kyrie and Rudolf are adding one too many suspicious movement, it's probably a good idea to start doubting Battler as a reliable source. Personally, I like Battler so I hope he isn't involved ^^;;;;;

Why closed room?

I agree with "to push the possibility that a witch did it" but doing a close room on this island in the mansion looped the way it was suggests the person is well informed about the island. Thus if not any of the family members or Nanjo, it must be a servant who is not on shift. Who kept on suggesting this in this EP? Rudolf and Kyrie.

Another thing strange about Night 1, is this is the first time Maria was not shown the circle. Without Maria, the remaining survivors could not relate the magic circles to a Biblical reference or to the witch Beatrice. IIRC in EP 01, was it George or Hideyoshi who drew in Maria's notebook to recognize the symbol. I don't remember who actually made the suggestion. It might have been Battler or Jessica. In EP 02 Maria came along with the other children to the sanctuary, iirc.

I'm sure there was a mistake made in Night 1 in this episode. Night 2 suggests that as it's too uncharacteristic of "Beatrice" to not follow up. In the Meta-world battle with Beato and Virgilia also suggests something went awry. Also another thing uncharacteristic is this Night 1 murder was fairly clean compared to the previous Night 1 murders.