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I don't think it's so much Smoker losing on purpose, but him turning into smoke, and thus putting himself in more danger due to making a bigger target out of himself, was to cover up the fact that he was trying to yoink Law's heart, due to his pride issue of being indebted to a pirate.
Whether he could've beaten Vergo on his own were it not for that... It's hard to say. It's possible, that even without it, in true rock-paper-scissors fashion, Vergo with his obscene haki was merely the wrong opponent for him.
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