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Well, I would pick the manga over the anime just because it is the original, the artwork is better, it is better at capturing the characters' emotions, it is further along than the anime (of course), and because.. well it's manga. =P
And just to note, the manga might be better for you because you sound like a hardcore Kaname fan. A lot of Kaname fans complain that the anime is Zero-centric. I still find the anime enjoyable despite its flaws, so I suggest you watch it if you have time to spare.
I don't think your character preferences should affect whether you follow a series or not.. you never know what will happen in the ending.. until it happens. Even if one character seems much more likely to "win" than another, you can never really know. The tide can change drastically within a single chapter.
That being said, since you seem to really like at least one of the characters (Kaname), I think you should follow at least the manga or the anime so that you can observe Kaname in action and see his character development, etc. I mean, he is one of the protagonists, afterall. As a result, a lot of the spotlight focuses on him, and he will have his good moments and bad moments, like every other character in the series.
I have one more thing to say; try not to bash any character. =] I know you weren't exactly 'bashing' him, but if you want to criticize Zero or his behaviors, then take it to his character discussion thread. This thread is devoted to the relationships in the series, though you can discuss his relationship with others. ^^
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