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Old 2012-08-20, 12:49   Link #57
LeoXiao
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Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Vereinigte Staaten
Age: 25
Here are the oft-cited reasons for inevitable Soviet victory in the East:

- Overall Soviet supremacy: The Russian troops had better tanks, more tanks, and better supplies than the Japanese in Manchuria.
- Russia doesn't need to send those Siberian divisions west: In WW2, Stalin always had the troops guarding the Far East at near-full strength, even in 1941-42, in the darkest hour.
- The Japanese were in China already: There is no way Japan can "win" in China fast enough to build up the necessary forces in Manchuria.

Historically, in 1945 the Soviets did really well against the Guandong army because they had built up superior elite armored forces and were fighting against an army that was infantry-based and short on everything from food to artillery to good leadership. They also used surprise to their advantage and blitzed the crap out of the Japanese by charging through some hills which were thought by the IJA to be impassible.

The only way to beat Russia is if there is no 1937 invasion of China proper, which will allow the Japanese to throw their entire force at, say, Vladivostok. They could do this in 1942 and the Soviets wouldn't be able to reinforce their positions with overwhelming armour like they did historically in 1945. Even so, the Japanese will face a strong, much more mobile opponent that can get in their rear easily. A good goal would be to try to get Vladivostok and the area directly around it, and then hold positions there while fending off Soviet attacks through force of numbers and air power (a field in which the Japanese are matched or even superior).
Even in this case, however, the Japanese, being composed of mostly infantry, will suffer more casualties than the Russians and, if they are not led well, may still end up getting routed since they are woefully inexperienced and unequipped in the principles of mobile warfare.

EDIT: Another problem is that if Japan does not achieve a victorious position quickly, it will run out of fuel. They have not discovered the Daqing oilfield yet and I'm not sure if that part of Siberia has any oil. I know Sakhalin does but apparently it was also undeveloped at that time.
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