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Originally Posted by BWTraveller
How is the marriage unnecessary? Yes they want him to attack them, but if he attacks them for harboring a criminal, things will be complicated for them. They don't want to give him any excuse to come after them, because that would make things far more complicated and troublesome for the Japanese government. They ultimately want a peaceful agreement, not conquest. Talking peace when the war started because they interfered with internal matters like the capture of a criminal guilty of high treason would be very difficult, hardly less difficult than if they just launched an unprovoked attack, and there would be more lives lost, not to mention their reputation would suffer on both sides of the Gate because some would say that they instigated the war. This is why he was even supposed to throw Sherry to the wolves. At the last moment he decided that he couldn't let her be captured, so he grabbed at the only excuse he could think of. He knows that it's not likely to hold any real weight and thus will likely turn out no different than if he simply said he was saving her because he wanted to save her, but it gives Japan a thread to grab onto. They do want Zolzal to attack, but not on his terms as retaliation against an act against his empire in breach of their treaties. They know he'll either attack them or break their treaty on his own, but in this sort of situation the first to break the agreement tends to have the upper hand.
Just because they can start the war whenever they want doesn't mean that it's a good idea. They know it's coming, but they're being careful to make sure it starts on their terms as an act of unjustified aggression on the Empire's part. Yes, Zolzal has no problem attacking on a mere whim. Japan knows this and thus knows the war's coming, but again, if they simply harbor a criminal, he will have validation and a reason to go to war. Saying that he would have attacked them anyway will not hold any water either, they'll still be seen as the ones that started the war with their clear breach of treaty and interference with internal affairs. They WANT to wait for him to break the treaty himself. I'll repeat: saying he would break the treaty and go to war just because he can will do nothing to diminish the damage Japan will face for starting the fight themselves. And Sugawara knows what he's doing won't hold water, but needed some excuse and declaring her to have a prior contractual connection to the Japanese embassy is the best he had.
You have to understand that the doves are a small FACTION in a regime, and the treaty and alliance is with the EMPIRE itself. If they harbor people labeled traitors to the crown simply because said traitors want their nation to surrender rather than fight, they will be seen as interfering with a purely internal matter and encouraging insurrection. Harboring and aiding a rebel who is attempting to undermine the state's authority can easily be read as an open act of aggression against the empire and in betrayal to all the peace talks. In order to gain the peace they and the doves want, they have to respect the empire's choice to label said doves as traitors until the empire makes a move to warrant retaliation. Executing an imperial citizen for suspicion of colluding with an invading force hardly warrants retaliation, so they can't take any action that can be perceived as aggression, such as taking in such suspected criminals.
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The war started because the Empire invaded Japan. It was never officially ended.
As for Zorzal, he's a war criminal. Japan would be within its rights to demand he be handed over for prosecution as part of the reparations the Empire must pay.
We seem to agree on it being in Japan's interest that Zorzal attack, but when you say it must look right... In whose eyes? Who is going to judge Zorzal's actions, and how?
If it's our world - the Empire doesn't have a seat in the UN. It doesn't have contacts in the mass media. Unlike Japan. And even if it did, "Japan didn't let me kill a 12 years old girl" is going to be a hard sell.
If it's theirs - you forget what kind of place the Empire is. "Because fuck you, that's why" is all the reason they need. The Empire rules because they're the strongest. But what if it stops being the strongest? Sure, the doves are just a faction. But if Japan arranged for all opponents to be hanged and fed to the crows so the doves could rule, the worst that would happen would be a that the citizens of the empire would say "say hello to the new boss, same as the old boss".
Oh, sure, maybe,
maybe it'd be worthwhile to dress it up a bit better. But the empire is a place where being weak and hesitant is worse than being morally wrong. (Some would argue that the real world is like that, too, when it comes to international politics, but let's not go there.)