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The trouble is weeding out the red herrings from the theories. There are so many now that is seems impossible to sort out just what is possible and what isn't...mostly because most theories that are possible get destroyed in one episode or another, leading to them being considered red herrings.
Add to this the tendance of some rather wild theories sprouting up from time to time that can make sense. Ways to get around the red that blocks some theories...ways to keep some people from being blamed, or keeping some ships live.
(Also consider there are still unanswered question and theories in Higurashi)
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