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You guys seem to think that just because the answer is not spoon-fed, reasoning is impossible.
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That is not even mildly close to anything I've said. Can you please not patronize me? What I'm saying is that Erika should be smart enough to realize that her powers do not actually do what they say they do, OR she should be complaining about Kanon's absence in the parlor scene. There's no way around it.
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Therefore, Erika, whose perspective does not reach the level of Red Truth (even though it actually is still reliable), is obviously being tricked. She is not capable of fighting in a fair game against a witch. The witches are just cruelly taunting her, for no other reason than to alleviate their boredom.
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But it is. Things that Erika observes are 100% certain. That's literally Red Truth-level, and Lambdadelta
said so herself.
And if the witches are just fucking with Erika, and she can't hope to win, then why in the fuck is she an antagonist? Why is Battler HELPING to bully her? Why is everyone being a jackass for no reason except to troll the readers and waste everyone's time?
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Humans were never told that their truths are correct. Does that mean they are being cruelly tricked? No. They can go around and experience the world with their senses, and decide what is the truth for themselves. Even so, their senses are not at the level of Red Truth.
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What you're proposing is not at all equivalent to being given super-senses by omnipotent beings and being told that what you perceive is true. There is a difference between being merely ignorant and having God himself tell you that you are correct...and then having to suspect somehow that God is lying to you for no reason except he's a bored asshole.
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That is how it is with Erika's Piece in the Mystery side of the story, according to my theory.
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Your theory does not fit the facts, and requires everyone to be an asshole to Erika, including the good guys.
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In the end, what we are all looking for in this story is "an answer we can be satisfied with." Whether Ryukishi gives us this answer or not, it doesn't change that this is our objective. And it doesn't change the fact that we are capable of reaching this objective. I believe I will reach that objective, myself. Do you?
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Utterly and entirely irrelevant to addressing the plot hole being discussed.
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I don't get why Erika can't make the mistake of not making sure behind her there's really Shannon and Kumasawa and Kanon is really where Battler says he was.
Despite being intelligent she overlooked checking things more than once in Umineko so missing to check is an error she's prone to do.
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She purposefully went out of her way to gather EVERYONE together in one room so she could announce her theory. She would notice if someone was missing.