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I would point out something else of interest from this time period. Up to 1938, Nazi Germany was supporting Nationalist China against Japan until the Sino-Soviet Pact and Hitler's policy in thinking the Japanese were more capable of dealing with the Bolsheviks than the Chinese. (the Germans and Americans both supported the Nationalists against the Communists and the Japanese at that time) Playing all sides, Germany has pacts with Japan and the Soviets in 1940 with still dealing with China economically. When everything fell apart, Germany having recognized the Japanese based client/puppet states in China and China joined the allies in declaring war in Germany in December of 1941. Russia already being at war with Germany since June of that year and Japan working on a viable solution to their energy problem via the Dutch East Indies so they could continue advancing into China.
Still the major factor is the Soviet Army defeating the Japanese badly in 1939 leading to the Japanese policy of not going there as it was a battle they did not think they could win.
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