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Should we truly consider the possibility Soviet Union falling here ? They will still have the defensive terrain advantage that can screw every invader once the winter knocks the door. It's not like we're assuming better planning and timing for Barbarossa in this scenario anyway. Remember that Transamur will be the natural limit for Japanese expansion northward. No question of Japanese Siberia whatsoever.
It will just mean that Soviet Union will come out of the war even more devastated then OTL, but they will still most likely make it through. Their capability to project counter attack will be affected and perhaps both East Germany and North Korea can be avoided this way. More prolonged war will inevitably give way for more nukes to be emplyed in the war. More bitterness and frustration from an even longer war will lead to a harsher war settlement for the losers, primarily Germany.
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