Thread: Arafat's dead.
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Old 2004-11-16, 13:03   Link #79
7thMethuselah
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Antwerp area, Belgium, Europa
Age: 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanjuronord
Israel will have a lot of fun with a puppet leader. That could be a lot of fun if you did it right...he could do the national address live from his cell while Israeli guards poke him w/ stun rods everytime he says something they don't like....
Actually the current situation is very favorable for Israel. The main Palestinian leaders are dead. Hesbollah was whiped out of existence, Hamas' military and religious leader are dead, and these two were really the ones in control in the Gaza Strip.
The leader of Fatah on the West Bank in an Israeli prison, a weak figure at the top of Fatah, the PLO and the Al-Aqsa Brigades, and some of the leading figures of Islamic Jihad have been wacked as well recently.
The only one remaining with power was Arafat, now that he's dead there are only a few guys left who have no more than a minimal support at most.

This situation is perfect for a "divide and rule" strategy, Israel can pretty much do whatever it wants while Palestinian groups struggle for some power.

Such a strategy would lead to decreased attacks on Israel, since Israel can really get a firm grip on the remaining Palestinian territories with no one to oppose them, and the militant palestinians will mostly be fighting each other rather than israel.

This strategy also have a serious negative side however : The Palestinian in-fighting could lead to a serious civil war in the Palestinian Territories. This scenario is not that likely since Israel has a pretty firm grip on most Palestine Cities (in case you didn't know, many cities are locked down and transport in and out is restricted). These restrictions would keep any explosive situation lacalised

The bigger disadvantage is that without a Palestinian Leader, Israel can't sign any peace agreements. A puppet leader wouldn't do since his treaties with israel would never be recognised on the street, while the ones Arafat signed mostly were accepted.
And if after a long power struggle a new leder would arise, he is very likely to be very anti-Israel which means peace is even further away...
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