Well, here's what we know:
1. Kira realized that his relationship with Flay was wrong called it off.
2. Flay also realized that she did Kira wrong.
3. Lacus showed some interest in Kira.
Given the above, I think what would've happened had Flay survived would be that Flay, more than anything, would want to set things straight with Kira.
For his part, Kira would be free of the guilt of not being able to save Flay and, thus, might be more receptive to any advances from Lacus.
So I can see Kira and Flay becoming real friends and, at the same time, Kira and Lacus moving faster in their relationship.
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