Quote:
Originally Posted by Demi.
You don't need huge upsets the seperate ISML and Bestmoe from Saimoe. Only moderate ones, and they happen a whole lot. I can predict 95% of all ISMl matches on average(well, during the regular season as relegation matches happening now were the only tricky predictions in the regular season), and was close to around 89% with Bestmoe. Saimoe, I'm lucky if I can reach 70%. The only thing tricky with Bestmoe is the fangirl factor, and it's what I hate most about it, anyways. And atleast Saimoe keep is moderatly close, usually not above 66% unless It's some one very weak vs. a top tier...70%+ rapes is commonplace in ISML.
Not that I'm dissing the other two contests, but point is, I like Saimoe's restrictions. It's complex, and takes time and effort to actually vote, compared to other contests where It's just vote and forget about it the next 24hrs. Or random people surfing the web come across ISML...and vote within the span of thirty seconds, only to never return again. And I think this is the main reason why Saimoe preferance is so much different than everyone else.
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95%? I knew you were better at predictions that I was but I didn't think it was that much. No wonder I can't beat you. I was only 90.18% for the regular season. I don't follow Best Moe so I can't comment on why it's easier to predict matches there. However, a large part of the reason ISML has fewer upsets is because we have a lot more data. Even if a character makes the finals in Saimoe, we've only seem them in 6 matches plus a preliminary match. In ISML by the end of Aquamarine we've seen every single character in 9 matches. Also 60% of Saimoe matches are Round 1 matches. In those matches we have nothing but the unreliable preliminary matches to go on. For me, it was difficult to predict a lot of the matches since I didn't know a lot of the weaker characters. I think you watch a fair bit more anime than I do so maybe this wasn't as much of an issue for you. However, regardless of the reason why you are correct that Saimoe is a lot harder to predict. I just think it's because we don't have as clear a picture about the character's strength as opposed to Saimoe being particularly friendly to upsets.
The closer matches thing as an illusion caused by 3/4-way matches. If you only look at the votes recived by the top 2 in each match, there are still lots of huge blowouts. Not always by top tiers either. In H3, Yomi got more than twice as many votes as anybody else in the group. Only looking at the top two, Yomi broke 70%. C07, Nogizaka Mika nearly tripled anyone else in her group. Mika isn't close to being top tier. By the time we're down to 1 on 1 matches, almost all of the fodder weak enough to get 70-30'd have been eliminated. Considering Tacos vs Chiaki was a 70-30 match, imagine Tacos vs Futami Eriko.