Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R
Otaku = Anime nerd (I use neither of these terms derogatorily, I hasten to add - I myself am an anime nerd to a certain extent)
Nerds never forget anything that's related to something that they're interested in. That's one of the key characteristics of nerds - their ability to remember the most mundane details of their favorite shows several years after they last aired.
So... otaku don't have a three-year old memory. The continuing immense popularity of Neon Genesis Evangelion proves that beyond a shadow of a doubt.
If anime studios seriously think that otakus have three-year old memories (especially when it comes to a series as popular as Haruhi Suzumiya) then they have even bigger problems than I thought.
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No, this isn't why the three-year theory exists. Anime fandom (and
especially anime merchandise purchasing) is a revolving door. Every year, some new people enter the fandom and others exist having gotten bored of it (or having found other priorities in life). There will always be a remnant who will stick around for the long-term, but these are the exceptions and not the rule. The actual membership pattern of this forum can attest to this phenomenon. I've heard multiple interviews with people in the Industry who've explained that anime merchandising in Japan is done with this model in mind -- they hit them hard and fast before they lose interest, since most customers won't keep buying DVDs for long. Even the Evangelion stuff -- they keep on remaking it and adding more spin-offs because of the revolving door of fandom. While some people stick around forever and buy everything, many people enter at a random point, buy a few things, and then leave/stop buying. I remember them saying that the average "life expectancy" of a "hardcore" anime fan is something like 12-18 months. Most people just disappear.
So, the remnant aside, that's what the three-year memory refers to: the regular turnaround of fandom. Of course they're also banking on a remnant that didn't forget and are using that remnant to bring some of the buzz back about their show, which they expect will get people to check out the first season to see what they missed.